COVID 19 GLOBAL

[dcfc2007]

38 minutes ago, Butch said:

A public health response couldn't have coped, otherwise they would have used it. As I explained, quite clearly, public health responses deal with specific pre planned scenarios with an element of flexibility built in, , actually, why don't you tell me exactly how a Public health response would have acted and why it would have been successful instead, give me the parameters in which it would have worked, how it would have worked sucessfully and what precautions and measures it would have taken to ensure the success, rather than me explaining why lockdown was necessary. Much easier.

The figures they worked from were the data from Italy. it is not 80% asymptomatic, they are figures "suggested" by the ONS, not confirmed, moreover they have come to light recently, so are we talking about the lockdown when it was at the peak or now?.

Secondly, asymptomatic does not mean harmless. Important point. If you need to quote figures, make sure they have been verified and are not speculative please. It says UP to 70-80%, not definite.  Agreed it is higher than expected, but the PHe were dealing with previously relatively unknown disease and information they had at the time,  they don't concern themselves with the asymptomatic rate, they worry about the infection rate as the asymptomatic rate when dealing with control of a virus is not important, because the infection rate has a direct bearing whereas the asymptomatic rate does not. Someone asymptomatic contributes to the R rate, their status as being asymptomatic is moot, as they are still infected. Thus, asymptomatic people are still infected, they just do not show symptoms.

Asymptomatic people can still infect others, so 80%, or even 99.9999 % does not make C-19 any less infectious, it just means that more people can get it, more can be infected and it can spread more widely, it also doesn't make it any less harmful. Chlamydia is asymptomatic in many women, and it stops them having kids due to PID, so being asymptomatic does not mean that it is harmless.

Secondly, as I said, what would you rather have, no nightingale and a massive influx of patients or something that is there is you need it. It is called Risk control, think of it as a very expensive Fire extinguisher. There is no mention of the number of Nurses in that article, and given that there are over 500k registered with the Unions for the NHS, I'd ask you to provide a definitive figure as you seem to be so keen on quoting news sources. As I said, due to isolation, and redeployment nurses were busy, "Thousands" were not redeployed to nightingale Hospitals because they were effectively C-19 specific Wards within a building, thus they don't need to be staffed by thousands.

Anecdotally, a Children's Ward Nurse wouldn't probably find herself redeployed, but feel free to ask her what happened to all the Day rostered Nurses, ITU, Derma, HDU, HMU  Recovery, Theatre , Cardiac and respiratory Nurses along with the ones they redeployed from the Cancer Wards in her local hospital. It will make interesting reading.

I can speak with some authority on Essex, Kent and East Anglia NHS trusts regarding redeployment and how it was done, and the Nurses and Doctors were anything but "quiet".

 

 

You haven't explained anything clearly, you have given an opinion. My opinion is that with the right public health measures in place, such as shielding of the elderly and those with underlying conditions, greater encouragement of hand washing and personal hygiene, appropriate redeployment of health staff, PPE etc. There was no need to lock millions of healthy people in their homes, there was no need for Police to be searching peoples shopping for popcorn or other 'non-essential items', they used a hammer to crack a nut.

The ONS study on asymptomatic cases looked at cases across England, not the cruise ship study you are referring to, see below...

A large-scale study into Covid-19 infection rates in England has revealed that the majority were asymptomatic when they tested positive.

This was one of a number of findings of a Government-funded trial, led by Imperial College London, which saw 120,000 volunteers from the general population tested to see if they had Covid-19 between 1 May and 1 June. 

The aim was to gain insight into who was infected and comparing geography, age, sex, ethnicity, key worker status and symptoms.

The study also found that people of Asian ethnicity were more likely than those of white ethnicity to test positive for the virus, with the Government commenting that it 'is possible' this 'contributed towards the higher death rates observed in this ethnic group'.

Worryingly, 69% of people testing positive reported no symptoms on the day of the test or the previous week, although the Government said 'they may have developed symptoms later on and it doesn’t show how infectious they might have been at this time'.

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/government-study-finds-majority-of-covid-positive-patients-were-asymptomatic/20041157.article

Whether it's 50, 60 or 80%, the fact remains, the virus in the overwhelming majority of cases is either asymptomatic or mild. This is not ebola or mers, this is a manageable illness which causes fatalities in the very elderly, and those with severe underlying illnesses, only in rare and extreme cases does it kill young, fit and healthy people. 

There was no need for the nightingale hospitals, there never was any need. You are only giving anecdotal evidence about nurses, the truth is that the majority of nursing and medical staff were redeployed to empty nightingale hospitals.

[dcfc2007]

9 minutes ago, Kathmandu said:

So your rights usurp theirs? Come on mate. Bring your A game next time. FFS!! Jesus!!

Nope.

I never claimed it did.

The rights of the majority do usurp the rights of the minority though. 

[dcfc2007]

15 minutes ago, Kathmandu said:

Agreed. Your response is hysterical. 

Nope, my response contained cold hard data, yours was hysterical shite with no evidence to back it up. 

https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/br/b-cdc/covid-19deathsandcases/

As you can see here, the median age of Covid19 deaths in Ireland was 83, the life expectancy in Ireland is 82, so yes the majority of those people who died from Covid19 would most likely have died a short time later, even if they hadn't contracted the illness.

Edited July 20, 2020 by dcfc2007

[lazarus]

[Nightcrawler]

If C19 were just flu, then the question must be asked as to why, scientists and biologists etc across the globe are working flat out to develop a vaccine for the virus? We already have a flu vaccine.

Is it so that the Pharmaceutical giants can make billions from sales distribution ? or is it a genuine concern to tackle a new virus of which still there are some unknowns ?

Or perhaps some other reason/s

[Evil Penevil]

7 hours ago, fforest said:

The meme isn't accurate.  Amish communities have had to struggle with COVID-19.

COVID-19 outbreak in Amish community in Loudonville area         COVID-19 outbreak among Ashland County’s Amish community originated from wedding, health department says

COVID-19 pandemic taking toll on Pa.'s Amish community        Officials look at COVID-19 spread among Amish communities

It is true that the Amish may be less susceptible to COVID-19 infection than some other groups.  Generally, the Amish don't drink or smoke, plus they get far more exercise than most Americans.  The Amish don't suffer to the same extent from underlying health conditions like obesity, diabetes and respiratory illnesses as the general population.  Elderly Amish are taken care of in the family, so there's almost no transmission via commercial care homes.

Different groups of Amish reject modern health care to varying degrees.  Some avoid it entirely, others accept it to some extent. Even when seriously ill, many Amish won't go to modern doctors or hospitals. Because the Amish are reluctant to cooperate with health officials, it's hard to know how serious a problem COVID-19 is in their cpmmunities.

Evil

 

[roobob]

5 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

So, if we had not had this "unnecessary" lockdown, do you believe that the number of infections would have just magically reduced to what they are now? 

It appears that many countries have introduced lockdowns in some form or another. Do you believe that they too have been triggered by media pressure? 

The C19 virus behaves the same wherever it goes. 

The figures of CV19 may have reduced... may have not.... under no lockdown. Can we actually say that lockdowns were successful??

What we do know that many people were denied on going medical treatment when the lockdowns came into place... if these lockdowns were not put there... then other medical treatments would have been on going and lives could/would have been saved.

True what you say.....CV19 behaves the same wherever it goes..... so does cancer.... and most other diseases.... but under lockdowns ...if you happened to have CV19 you were not denied/had  postponement of  medical treatment.... unlike some cancer sufferers.... other people with illnesses.  

cheers

Edited July 21, 2020 by roobob

[fforest]

 

[lazarus]

^ ^ ^
"Mask Nazis" we like to see...

[fforest]

[fforest]

[Thai Spice]

2 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

Is it so that the Pharmaceutical giants can make billions from sales distribution

That's sure a part of it . 

The US pharma giants have a huge interest in all this. An important lobbying power,  are present in many "scientific" commitees to give their "neutral and objective advice", are speaking in the ears of ministers, not to speak about the coming elections.

Have a look at their share prices since this started... (I own one which is up 200% since 4 months..) 

They are sure not going to let a good health crisis go to waiste ! And have ZERO morality or ethical rules.

 

[fygjam]

4 hours ago, dcfc2007 said:

It is exactly another type of flu,

No it isn't!

3 hours ago, dcfc2007 said:

Actually we know many things about it, in fact the genome of the virus has been mapped.I

Yes it has.

And if you bothered to look at the genome you will find it's a positive-sense single-stranded RNA genome of about 30k bases whereas influenza viruses have a negative-sense segmented RNA genome of from 12-15k bases.

The SARS-CoV-2 virus uses the ACE2 receptors of the cell surface to effect cell entry whereas influenza viruses use the sialic acid of cell surface glycoproteins for entry.

The only similarity between Covid-19 and influenza is generally they both start off as upper respiratory tract infections.

 

 

[Thai Spice]

Just had the Miss on W.A. Her words : "here in the village, no have Corona virus, everything is normal, nobody has a mask, everything open, people go to the temple, in 2 weeks we have a wedding in the family.  Here everything relax and normal" 

Now, if people were dropping dead in huge numbers, she would probably know it.... 

So, this just confirms what I always said "overhyped and dramatized". 

Bon, things are certainly different in Jakarta with the huge crowds concentration.  But just prove that a complete lockdown of all regions, a complete country is way over the top.

But hey, those who want to cover up and stay home....please do.  But dont try to convince others that is it the only way of survival.

 

 

[KWA]

18 hours ago, fygjam said:

Give us the evidence.

You claim to have read the transcript of the press conference where Kelly invited the audience to do the maths themselves, but refuse to answer if you personally did the maths and what result you arrived at.  That is telling.

You don't appear to disagree with the 150,000 result however, and your arguments about how it was or wasn't used are irrelevant when discussing where the figures originated.

Others may continue trying to explain it to you, but no-one can understand it for you.

Edited July 21, 2020 by KWA

[fygjam]

10 hours ago, KWA said:

You've read the transcript and he brought up Merkel's name in response to a suggested number of 60% and your right, he did not say he agreed with it, but he pointedly also didn't disagree with it.  Your negative innuendo is as bad as the press trying to dramatise things to suit themselves and boost sales.  He used the figures in a press conference being broadcast to the country, on behalf of the government, which was wrong.  By a large amount.

The stuff you bolded about "the authorities" the "stock answer" and "the magic number" were not written by me so please don't quote them against my points.

I don't know or care what your agenda is here, but Australia screwed up the potential figures just like many other countries did, including my own.  I'm unclear as to why you would blindly deny it when it's out there for everyone to see.  Google search may be your forte but logic certainly isn't.

The Sydney Morning Herald  does NOT broadcast to the country nor is the SMH the official organ used to promulgate government policy.

The Acting Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly DOES NOT SET government policy. In case you don't know, Australia is a federation of states. The lockdown policies of each state were determined by the individual state governments NOT the Commonwealth Acting Chief Medical Officer or the Commonwealth government.

The only area where the Commonwealth government had any control over what would be locked down was international air travel.

Whatever figures my local state government used to decide the lockdown policies they must have used the right ones.

• no community transmission for over two months.
• of the nine deaths eight were from cases where the disease was contracted outside of the state.
• the one death from an infection contracted within the state was from close contact with an "imported" case.
• of the 651 total cases, 569 cases were contracted outside of the state, 67 were from close contact with an infected person and ONLY 15 were from unknown sources.
• the population of Western Australia is 2.589 million. Perhaps you'd like to do a per capita comparisons with wherever you are.
• Western Australia is almost out of lockdown, the last step was put on hold when Victoria dropped the ball. However the pubs, school, restaurants, gyms hair dressers and barbers are all open. We can go to the beach or for a walk in the park. Work places are open and you can get any hospital treatment or surgery.

 

This discussion arose when @roobob posted the bullshit that the Australian government adopted the 150,000 deaths figure to decide policy claiming it was the figure used by "the authorities", the "stock answer" and "the magic number". He never did define who "the authorities" were.

I disputed that as I will with any bullshit where I know better. I will ask for evidence to support bullshit claims.

@roobob wanted to push it and lied about what I had posted.

I challenged him as I will do when anybody lies about what I post.

Then you decided to stick your beak in.

So if you want to keep digging, provide the evidence that any Australian government, either Commonwealth or state used the 150,000 deaths for any reason. Government policy, at least in Australia, is NOT decided by an article written by a journalist based on what may have been said at a press conference.

 

On 7/19/2020 at 8:27 PM, roobob said:

It does make a difference.

Example....Australians were told there would be 150,000 deaths from CV19 straight up .... even before the authorities had a full handle on the virus... and when questioned  why some things were being put in place...the stock answer was.. we will have 150,000deaths from it....... not "maybe".... but ..."will".  To date, Australia has had 122 deaths

All decisions were made on that "magic" number... even when it became evident that the virus would not hit as hard as they predicted.... they held forth and did not adapt to the situation at hand.

No ....  the people who have died from CV19 should not be ignored.... and they have not. Saying that....the people who are alive should not be ignored ....and they were/are...especially those who have illness that need on going treatment...those that need operations.... they were ignored because the authorities would not waver from the 150,000 magic number and that the only concern they had was CV19.

To some...it seemed that the ones who had health problems that would not be treated...... even those already in treatment and needed follow up treatment ... those that required operations which were all put on hold were nothing more than collateral damage to the authorities. Medical authorities say that deaths from other untreated illness which were/are on hold will be higher than the deaths related to CV19.

So yes.... it does make a difference.

cheers

 

On 7/19/2020 at 8:47 PM, fygjam said:

No we weren't!

 

 

On 7/19/2020 at 9:41 PM, roobob said:

Yes we were.

cheers

 

On 7/19/2020 at 10:57 PM, roobob said:

Yes.

Thanks for confirming what I said. Now in bold above..... first you say the figure is used..... then you say it was not necessarily used.

On your last sentence... practise what you preach.

Authorities in Australia have been caught out.... they said that 150,000 deaths will occur...... we have had 122 deaths.... many people have had their treatment for their current health issues cancelled/postponed while medical services were/are put on hold to await these 150,000 deaths that has not occurred to the detriment of many people's health.... well being...and  quality of life.

Those are the facts.

cheers

 

[fygjam]

9 minutes ago, KWA said:

You claim to have read the transcript of the press conference where Kelly invited the audience to do the maths themselves, but refuse to answer if you personally did the maths and what result you arrived at.  That is telling.

You don't appear to disagree with the 150,000 result however, and your arguments about how it was or wasn't used are irrelevant when discussing where the figures originated.

Others may continue trying to explain it to you, but no-one can understand it for you.

 

2 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Example....Australians were told there would be 150,000 deaths from CV19 straight up .... even before the authorities had a full handle on the virus... and when questioned  why some things were being put in place...the stock answer was.. we will have 150,000deaths from it....... not "maybe".... but ..."will".  To date, Australia has had 122 deaths

All decisions were made on that "magic" number... even when it became evident that the virus would not hit as hard as they predicted.... they held forth and did not adapt to the situation at hand.

Read it, go back to the beginning and provide the fuking evidence that backs up the bullshit that @roobob was trying to spread.

 

[KWA]

11 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Read it, go back to the beginning and provide the fuking evidence that backs up the bullshit that @roobob was trying to spread.

I think you've got your quotes mixed up, but I have no interest in your campaign against roobob.  My input was to use numbers in the public domain in Australia and compare them with similar in the UK.  Here's my first post on the subject in a reply to Nightcrawler.

On 7/20/2020 at 5:51 AM, KWA said:

Tell that to this guy's widow.  Services were stopped because of the fear of the massively overhyped numbers of potential Covid cases.  Same as the 150,000 number in Australia, the UK used numbers which have since been discredited, supplied by the so called experts and blindly accepted by the government.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-53430335

You appear to have some unknown (to me) agenda in the discussion, but the source of the figures is available to you and it'd be naive to think they had no effect on government or public reactions to the crisis, given the origins.  Just the  same in the UK and probably elsewhere too.

[fygjam]

31 minutes ago, KWA said:

I think you've got your quotes mixed up, but I have no interest in your campaign against roobob.  My input was to use numbers in the public domain in Australia and compare them with similar in the UK.  Here's my first post on the subject in a reply to Nightcrawler.

You appear to have some unknown (to me) agenda in the discussion, but the source of the figures is available to you and it'd be naive to think they had no effect on government or public reactions to the crisis, given the origins.  Just the  same in the UK and probably elsewhere too.

I have no "campaign" against @roobob, especially if he stops lying about what I posted.

I will ask anyone who claims that 150,000 deaths were used to drive official government (any Australian government) policy to provide the evidence to backup that claim because it DID NOT HAPPEN.

A press conference is NOT the way government policy, at least in Australia, is determined.

 

[Mrmango]

13 hours ago, fygjam said:

Well when the experts report check the age groups included in the phase III trials.

According to the boards experts only those over 65 get sick. All people under 65 should be down the pub, at the beach or even possibly at work. If the study groups don't include all ages then the results may not be reliable.

My understanding is that in the US the FDA will only license a vaccine for the age groups included in the trials. If there are no over 65s in the trial it won't be licensed for over 65s. To be used, a doctor will have to go off label. Other countries may have different rules.

 

In the US, any Doctor can prescribe ANY meds that have been approved, regardless of what they were originally intended for,

[roobob]

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

I have no "campaign" against @roobob, especially if he stops lying about what I posted.

I will ask anyone who claims that 150,000 deaths were used to drive official government (any Australian government) policy to provide the evidence to backup that claim because it DID NOT HAPPEN.

A press conference is NOT the way government policy, at least in Australia, is determined.

 

I was going to move on... but I am getting sick of you calling me a liar.

The figures were mentioned/referred/ announced/ told.....put any word you want..... and put out in the public domain by the the Commonwealth Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly. 

Commonwealth Deputy Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly was the Government spokesman at the time.... he released it to the Australian media. Sugar coat it any way you want.... the bottom line it was stated by the Govt spokesman at the time. The evidence is there...  in fact you posted as such.  

As KWA said... you seem to have an agenda with me.. as can be seen by your posts and I take umbrage to being called a liar by you. When people start going the personal potshots in a discussion ...it usually means they have nothing.... and that is the case here. You have been proven wrong of what was said.... you do not want to accept the fact... no problem..... but it is time you eased up on the keyboard bashing running around calling people liars just because they differ in opinion.

cheers

Edited July 21, 2020 by roobob

[Krapow]

9 hours ago, Thai Spice said:

 

Amazing how the masses will believe anything fed to them ....

 

Well exactly, that was the whole point, which you either missed or didn't read right 

[Krapow]

6 hours ago, Evil Penevil said:

The meme isn't accurate.  Amish communities have had to struggle with COVID-19.

Does matter a f**k to @fforest

He posts absolute garbage like the Amish meme.

It gets pointed out to him that it is garbage.

He then ignores the fact that it's garbage, and continues to post more garbage.

Welcome to his world!

[Krapow]

6 hours ago, fforest said:

 

 

8 hours ago, lazarus said:

So Aubrey Huff isn't being Patriotic then, no?

[Krapow]

I don't wear a mask, though i will have to when going into shops from Thursday in the UK, i haven't before.

But outside in the fresh air, walking about, no, thankfully. 

My wife does, that's her choice. 

We also will have to at the airport and airplane when we go on holiday next month, but i can see the logic and reasoning there.