Covid-19 vaccine - your thoughts

[Bazle]

For the purpose of discussion, let's make some assumptions -

a. a vaccine against Covid-19 is launched within the next 6 months;
b. it is, or similar to, the one from Oxford University / AstraZeneca (note 1);
c. it is about 60% effective (note 2); and
d. exactly how long it is effective is not known.

Q1 If available to you, would you have it?

Q2 What impact do you think it would have on the Thai tourist industry in 2021?

Note 1
This seems to be a good article about the methodology behind the various vaccines being developed:
https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/science-and-technology/2020/07/oxford-vaccine-enters-final-phase-of-covid-19-trials-heres-what

Note 2
*  White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci says that the chances of scientists creating a highly effective vaccine — one that provides 98% or more guaranteed protection — for the virus are slim.
*  Scientists are hoping for a coronavirus vaccine that is at least 75% effective, but 50% or 60% effective would be acceptable, too, he said.
*  The FDA has said it would authorize a coronavirus vaccine so long as it is safe and at least 50% effective.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html

[Thai Spice]

I don't care, as I won't take it. Not anti vax, but haven't had any in 30 years, and cant see why change that.

 

[Butch]

24 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

I don't care, as I won't take it. Not anti vax, but haven't had any in 30 years, and cant see why change that.

 

Cop a dose of yellow fever then you might change your mind.

Some are anti, some are pro, but some, possibly a majority are happy to sit in the middle and see results then make a decision based upon that.

Life is always a balance , be it a risk assesment or working on probabilities.

As long as it is presented as a choice then I have no issue, but if it is presented as a demand and mandatory, then we are going to have a problem.

In Answer to your good question Baz:

1: yes. I have had C-19 and it's not nice.

2: Limited. I think that with a vaccination Cert it will allow entry but be one of the many criteria they will ask for, not least insurance deposit of maybe like Cambs, $3K.

Good topic Baz, +1 from me mate.

Edited August 16, 2020 by Butch

[Thai Spice]

2 minutes ago, Butch said:

As long as it is presented as a choice then I have no issue, but if it is presented as a demand and mandatory, then we are going to have a problem

That is exactly my position.

Of course, if some governement decrees that you can't get on a plane without it I dont have much choice.

But that will be another bit of my freedom taken away.

 

[Jambo]

If it is only 60% effective and the take up rate is, say,  an optomistic 60% of that how does that take us much further forward?

Would I have one myself?

If either the UK or Thailand made vacination a condition of flying then "Yes" otherwise I think I would wait and see if any unforseen ( or untested) side effect arise from vacination. The political presure to come up with a vacine might well result in unforseen consequencies.

Irrespective of a vacine emerging later this year, Thailand is so obsessed with having zero internal transmissions it may well result in them sacrificing 2021 completely for general tourism.

If the world really wants to make a real difference in controlling the pandemic then mandatory vacination as a condition of flying is the only answer. That is about as likely as me winning the lottery.

 

 

Edited August 17, 2020 by Jambo

[Toy Boy]

6 hours ago, Butch said:

Cop a dose of yellow fever then you might change your mind.

 

Not very likely in Bali, but tetanus is a possibility anywhere, and it's a very unpleasant way to die.

[lazarus]

20 minutes ago, Jambo said:

<snip>

Irrespective of a vacine emerging later this year, Thailand is so obsessed with having zero internal transmissions it may well result in them sacrificing 2021 completely for general tourism.

<snip>

Thai kindergarteners wear face masks as they play in screened-in play areas used for social distancing at the Wat Khlong Toey School on August 10, 2020 in Bangkok, Thailand. Photo: Lauren DeCicca / Getty

Edited August 17, 2020 by lazarus

[tom72]

would I have the vacs ..no I let everyone else have it

[Lemondropkid]

Good topic Baz and info in the links.

Q1. I'd take it

Q2. Taking your assumptions I think a vaccine certificate would be a driver for allowing the Thai tourist  industry to recommence.

Given wider "events" in Thailand, a prolonged spell with no tourists, the hit on jobs and GDP, I'd guess the authorities will be  desperate to restart. let's say come next Feb/March- going full bore down the Mystic Meg route🙂and being hugely optimistic.

As an aside but related, the Thai government are looking at buying the Oxford vaccine 

https://www.nationthailand.com/news/30391825

It would seem bizarre to want to use the vaccine in Thailand, but at the same time not allow it's use to facilitate arrivals.

[Sangsom]

Yes and I couldn’t give 2 fks about the Thai tourist industry, more interested in the impact in the Uk.

[Thai Spice]

2 hours ago, Toy Boy said:

Not very likely in Bali, but tetanus is a possibility anywhere, and it's a very unpleasant way to die.

25 years living full time in Asia, never a vaccine , never a condom, still alive and kicking.  

I would be more scared about crossing 2nd road ! Or roaming dogs...

 

[Nightcrawler]

Yes, why not. I have a flu and pneumonia  jab every year.

If it means that there is a lower risk, and if it means that I can travel with less restriction, then I will chose to have it. 

I can't see it ever being compulsory in general, but it may well be if you chose to be in certain.situations where others may be at risk.

I don't buy into this taking away freedom nonsense.

For instance...

If a person wants to drive a car, then they need to obtain a licence and learn to drive, then take a test, then apply for a full licence.  It's a choice.  We accept that we are not free just to jump in a car and drive it without restrictions (unless on private property). 

Apart from.obvious benefits of being temporarily immuned to the virus (assuming it is effective), if I  chose to travel abroad and having a certificate of vaccination is compulsory then I have a choice. Travel or not.  Just as if I did not have enough money to sustain my holiday, then I would not get a flight to wherever it is.

To me it's a question of personal responsibility

The world collectively is investing billions in a race to develop and produce vaccine/s. I don't see it as a scam created for big Pharmas to make a killing, but of course they will

Then there is another question about cost. Will it be free?

In the spirit of boosting world economies, and getting people back to work and play then it most likely will be. I would pay for it if I had to. 

Is there a risk??

We don't know for sure, but would it be greater than developing the virus itself? That might depend on one's age and health. 

Conclusion

There must be some real incentives for the majority to be vaccinated.  That mentioned above is obvious, but what about kids, or those in good health and between 16 and 60 etc?

If it is not compulsory and many decide not to have the vaccination then the spread of the virus will take much longer to contain and there will be a longer period of restrictions.

If however, everyone was to cooperate and it was understood that by doing so, it would lead to less restrictions on daily life, getting back to work, rebuilding economies and normality, then would they chose to be vaccinated or stamp the feet of cry freedom and rely on their principles ?

 The 2:keys to eradicate spread of C19 are effective vaccine and effective treatment in the early stages for those who exhibit symptoms. Linked with both of those is testing.  It is not yet known whether those who have had the virus, will be immune from getting it a again, either long or short term. The likelyhood, like many viruses, is that it will mutate and therefore any annual vaccines will need to change to incorporate the changes as they are with the Flu virus.

Sorry for the long winded reply, to me it's never a straight forward yes or no answer and just some of my thoughts and opinions on the subject.

We all want to get back to "normal" if that is possible

So what are we collectively going to do to ensure that it can happen in the future? 

For me, wearing a mask, social distancing, hand cleansing and future vaccination is not just for ME. It's also a care and concern for my fellow citizens, friends and family alike. 

[Steelers4Life]

1 minute ago, Nightcrawler said:

I don't buy into this taking away freedom nonsense.

 

1 minute ago, Nightcrawler said:

For me, wearing a mask, social distancing, hand cleansing and future vaccination is not just for ME. It's also a care and concern for my fellow citizens, friends and family alike. 

Agree 100%!! Some people in this world will always be "deuu" (stubborn).

[Yessongs]

My wife and I recently had " Shingles" vaccinations. Never had it before in my life ( either shingles or the vaccination) but after seeing my Brother have it, it was a no brainer. Good lord he was hurting and very painful to say the least. 2 shots given over a 2 month period. You do not want "Shingles" believe me. 

As far as the Covid 19 vaccination....I will get it when it is available and make a reasonable assessment after talking to my Doctor here. The less hassle I have to deal with Thai authorities the better I say, hopefully the common sense will come back to them and realize that if you are vaccinated, then entry will be easier.

Not going to get cocky now at age 63, have had a good run with my health personally and don't take that for granted for 1 minute. 

 

[Bazle]

2 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

Yes, why not. I have a flu and pneumonia  jab every year.

If it means that there is a lower risk, and if it means that I can travel with less restriction, then I will chose to have it. 

Is there a risk??

We don't know for sure, but would it be greater than developing the virus itself? That might depend on one's age and health. 

But your flu and pneumonia jabs have been developed in conventional ways, and fully tested. An "Oxford"-type vaccine is neither.

Travel with less restriction? Really, that was my second question: would a 60% effective vaccine affect travel to Thailand in 2021? IMHO, that degree of effectiveness isn't going to impress the Thais.

I won't comment on your remarks about a vaccination being compulsory, or on social responsibility, as those matters are OT, and discussed extensively in other threads.

[Thai Spice]

5 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

Yes, why not. I have a flu and pneumonia  jab every year.

If it means that there is a lower risk, and if it means that I can travel with less restriction, then I will chose to have it. 

I can't see it ever being compulsory in general, but it may well be if you chose to be in certain.situations where others may be at risk.

I don't buy into this taking away freedom nonsense.

For instance...

If a person wants to drive a car, then they need to obtain a licence and learn to drive, then take a test, then apply for a full licence.  It's a choice.  We accept that we are not free just to jump in a car and drive it without restrictions (unless on private property). 

Apart from.obvious benefits of being temporarily immuned to the virus (assuming it is effective), if I  chose to travel abroad and having a certificate of vaccination is compulsory then I have a choice. Travel or not.  Just as if I did not have enough money to sustain my holiday, then I would not get a flight to wherever it is.

To me it's a question of personal responsibility

The world collectively is investing billions in a race to develop and produce vaccine/s. I don't see it as a scam created for big Pharmas to make a killing, but of course they will

Then there is another question about cost. Will it be free?

In the spirit of boosting world economies, and getting people back to work and play then it most likely will be. I would pay for it if I had to. 

Is there a risk??

We don't know for sure, but would it be greater than developing the virus itself? That might depend on one's age and health. 

Conclusion

There must be some real incentives for the majority to be vaccinated.  That mentioned above is obvious, but what about kids, or those in good health and between 16 and 60 etc?

If it is not compulsory and many decide not to have the vaccination then the spread of the virus will take much longer to contain and there will be a longer period of restrictions.

If however, everyone was to cooperate and it was understood that by doing so, it would lead to less restrictions on daily life, getting back to work, rebuilding economies and normality, then would they chose to be vaccinated or stamp the feet of cry freedom and rely on their principles ?

 The 2:keys to eradicate spread of C19 are effective vaccine and effective treatment in the early stages for those who exhibit symptoms. Linked with both of those is testing.  It is not yet known whether those who have had the virus, will be immune from getting it a again, either long or short term. The likelyhood, like many viruses, is that it will mutate and therefore any annual vaccines will need to change to incorporate the changes as they are with the Flu virus.

Sorry for the long winded reply, to me it's never a straight forward yes or no answer and just some of my thoughts and opinions on the subject.

We all want to get back to "normal" if that is possible

So what are we collectively going to do to ensure that it can happen in the future? 

For me, wearing a mask, social distancing, hand cleansing and future vaccination is not just for ME. It's also a care and concern for my fellow citizens, friends and family alike. 

Long post to say nothing IMO, but you're entitled your opinion.

But dont call other people's opinion "nonsense" !  It's just a different opinion, and everyone is entitled to have his.

 

[Thai Spice]

5 hours ago, Steelers4Life said:

 

Agree 100%!! Some people in this world will always be "deuu" (stubborn).

Proudly so !

 

[Nightcrawler]

4 hours ago, Bazle said:

But your flu and pneumonia jabs have been developed in conventional ways, and fully tested. An "Oxford"-type vaccine is neither.

Travel with less restriction? Really, that was my second question: would a 60% effective vaccine affect travel to Thailand in 2021? IMHO, that degree of effectiveness isn't going to impress the Thais.

I won't comment on your remarks about a vaccination being compulsory, or on social responsibility, as those matters are OT, and discussed extensively in other threads.

I agree but it's a choice of perhaps two evils. 

We don't know what the Thais will accept in the future as things may change either for the better or the worst.  It depend on what the final outcome of the vaccine will be. 

My response is just a personal one.  We will have to wait until we see what is final on the table, but for now, in the light of what we know, I would be prepared to take the risk, if there is one.

Others may chose differently. That's why I mentioned about voluntary/compulsory. 

Maybe we won't have an effective and fully tested vaccine for some years ?

[Nightcrawler]

1 hour ago, Thai Spice said:

Long post to say nothing IMO, but you're entitled your opinion.

But dont call other people's opinion "nonsense" !  It's just a different opinion, and everyone is entitled to have his.

 

I have just edited my post for you and substituted " nonesence" with "viewpoint" all though it does not change my own opinion. 

[Jambo]

6 hours ago, Nightcrawler said:

Maybe we won't have an effective and fully tested vaccine for some years ?

The effectiveness of any vaccine depends entirely on the rate of takeup world wide.

There are effective Flu vaccines available but the USA alone has between 19 - 40 miilion individuals going down with it every Flu season. When I first read that I thought it was a missprint!

The genie is out of the bottle.

Covid19 and its mutations are here for ever so it is the world that needs to learn to live with the fact.

[fygjam]

11 hours ago, Bazle said:

But your flu and pneumonia jabs have been developed in conventional ways, and fully tested. An "Oxford"-type vaccine is neither.

On the other hand "Oxford"-type vaccines have been in development and testing for a lot longer than the novel coronavirus of 2019.

In a 2013 paper describing their ChAdOx1 vaccine for Rift Valley Fever (RVF) they say

Replication-deficient adenovirus vectors have so far been used in human clinical trials of vaccines
against Plasmodium falciparum, human immunodeficiency virus, Mycobacterium tuberculosis,
hepatitis C virus and influenza virus in many thousands of adults, children and infants in Europe
and Africa, including countries that are prone to frequent RVF epizootics. These studies have highlighted the
excellent safety and immunogenicity profile of adenovirus vectors in humans, with similar properties
observed in several animal species (including those susceptible to RVF) where adenovirus-vectored vaccines
have been tested against multiple diseases. Development of an effective adenovirus-vectored RVF
vaccine may therefore provide a prophylactic tool that could be used not only in humans, but also in the
animal species susceptible to RVF.

https://virologyj.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1743-422X-10-349

While there are no viral vector vaccines currently licensed for human use there are at least 12 licensed for animal use.

In 2017/18 Oxford were also making trial vaccines for SARS-1 and MERS. In other words, the technology has been around for a while.

If you want "old school", the same way flu vaccines are currently made, where you brew up a whole lot of virus then clobber them with formaldehyde. 

• Wuhan Institute of Biological Products
• Beijing Institute of Biological Products
• Sinovac Biotech
• Institute of Medical Biology at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences
• Bharat Biotech (India)

are all working on inactivated virus vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

 

 

[fygjam]

^^^

I should have added.

The immunologists I listen to agree that vaccines which cause the host (the vaccinated person) to make the pathogen (the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein) are more likely to give a more durable immune response (lasts longer) than those vaccines which inject the spike protein directly. These vaccines include ChAdOx1 and Moderna's mRNA-1273 vaccines.

 

As a matter of interest, two companies (Merck and Vaxart)are developing oral vaccines although both are in the preclinical stage at present. They are viral vector vaccines delivered by capsule which cause cells of the GI tract to make the spike protein.Apparently mucosal tissue, as one person puts it, "slimy skin" which includes the lining of the nose, mouth, airways, lungs GI tract and vagina (if you have one), communicate with each other although not directly connected. So cells of the GI tract can tell the cells lining the nose that the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is bad news.

 

[Jambo]

7 hours ago, fygjam said:

While there are no viral vector vaccines currently licensed for human use there are at least 12 licensed for animal use.

In 2017/18 Oxford were also making trial vaccines for SARS-1 and MERS. In other words, the technology has been around for a while.

If you want "old school", the same way flu vaccines are currently made, where you brew up a whole lot of virus then clobber them with formaldehyde. 

• Wuhan Institute of Biological Products
• Beijing Institute of Biological Products
• Sinovac Biotech
• Institute of Medical Biology at the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences
• Bharat Biotech (India)

are all working on inactivated virus vaccines against SARS-CoV-2.

 

 

None of which will make a real difference in practice in eradicating Covid19 unless a successful vaccine is available world wide at a price that can be afforded with a significantly higher takeup by the world's population than is currently being achieved with Flu vaccines.

Personally, unless I am required to have had a vaccination in order to fly I think I will take my chances and give a vaccination a miss for a year or two to see what side effects show up. So much political pressure in play to come up with a vaccine. 

[lazarus]

3 minutes ago, Jambo said:

None of which will make a real difference in practice in eradicating Covid19 unless a successful vaccine is available world wide at a price that can be afforded with a significantly higher takeup by the world's population than is currently being achieved with Flu vaccines.

Personally, unless I am required to have had a vaccination in order to fly I think I will take my chances and give a vaccination a miss for a year or two to see what side effects show up. So much political pressure in play to come up with a vaccine. 

COVID-19 will be making the rounds for awhile, vaccination or not.

Doctors are finding better techniques and drugs to treat it. More people survive, less are hospitalized.

Some people wear masks and wash their hands. Some people are still contracting COVID-19.
Fewer older people are dying (staying home). More younger people are getting it and not dying (going out).
Basically, you take your chances (longevity wise) every time you step out of bed.

It's time that life should just "go on." What more can governments do when all it takes is one asymptomatic carrier to spread it around?

Of course, convincing politicians & governments, the irrational emotionally-driven media, and Thai netizens is an entirely different story.

[Jambo]

5 minutes ago, lazarus said:

COVID-19 will be making the rounds for awhile, vaccination or not.

Doctors are finding better techniques and drugs to treat it. More people survive, less are hospitalized.

Some people wear masks and wash their hands. Some people are still contracting COVID-19.
Fewer older people are dying (staying home). More younger people are getting it and not dying (going out).
Basically, you take your chances (longevity wise) every time you step out of bed.

It's time that life should just "go on." What more can governments do when all it takes is one asymptomatic carrier to spread it around?

Of course, convincing politicians & governments, the irrational emotionally-driven media, and Thai netizens is an entirely different story.

I think that is just about spot on.

Covid-19 is not going to simply disappear following the advent of a vaccine. We all have to learn to live with it and accept that it is here for ever and a percentage of the population will sadly die from it but that is natural selection in practice.