Cheap finance and the move to EV

[Butch]

There's a school of thought that the UK and Eu Car market is at a turning point. Diesels (and high CO petrol cars) , in the opinion of many, have had their day and will be priced off the road in due course (increased Congestion charge in London to begin with) https://tfl.gov.uk/modes/driving/ultra-low-emission-zone/ulez-expansion

There was also the possible introduction of a diesel ban in Bristol (now cancelled) but the seeds have been sown.

We're all now being encouraged to go electric or hybrid - sound familiar? It should, back when the last Labour Govt were in power, they encouraged the use of Diesels by the introduction of new vehicle taxation laws: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41985715

Are we seeing History repeating though? - Electric and Hybrid cars are not as clean as some may think, the materials used in manufacture are horrifically damaging to the areas they are mined from, and as expected, come from poor 3rd world exploited Countries such as Congo. I think that anyone driving their brand new EV and feeling happy about saving the planet may conveniently forget that little fact though. Also, generating electricity produces carbon, and while it's not an entirely clean process, it's not entirely unpolluting either.

In the UK today, financing and borrowing money has never been cheaper. I recently almost purchased a brand new BMW , along with huge dealer discounts and from the bank an interest rate of 2.4% if I wanted to avail of it. Had I opted for an electric car from different manufacturers such as Fiat, it becomes an attractive proposition. They're falling over themselves to get you to finance or PCP / lease, factoring in the money you will save in the long term by choosing EV / Hybrid.

Are the buying public making a rod for their own back though?. Certainly anyone living in the congestion zone in London can save up to £17.50 per day depending upon their choice of car by going EV. Locally I've seen more Tesla vehicles on the road than ever before. They may be fast, but a dull, characterless silent interior to me, seems like a mobile science lab. Is this another "fad" like diesels that will haunt us when we need to dispose of toxic batteries, increased costs on maintenance and perhaps a levy on the toxic materials used in manufacture to push the price up?.

For the meantime I'll keep my internal combustion engine nice and warm, but the elephant in the room isn't going to disappear if I buy an EV, in order to get that elephant to move, you need to speak to it in Chinese and ask it to stop polluting.

 

 

[lazarus]

Teslas, Priuses & hybrids rule the road here in California. Gas is pricey (for the US).

And, the Chinese are world leaders in NEV production and R&D.

. . .

How China put nearly 5 million new energy vehicles on the road in one decade

https://theicct.org/blog/staff/china-new-energy-vehicles-jan2021#:~:text=In 2020%2C nearly half of,vehicle production was in China.&text=Last but not least%2C many,EV capitals” were in China.

Global Plug-in Vehicle Sales Reached over 3,2 Million in 2020

https://www.ev-volumes.com

 

[Butch]

Would you change to an EV or hybrid Lazarus?. How are the deals working out in the US? Be interested to know as a comparison. A brand new BMWi3 S 5dr Auto here in the UK is £36925 without options, however there is a dealer discount available apparently, plus they can be had for a couple of K cheaper

I know that California has always been super restrictive on emission controls, I might be wrong but back in the 80's weren't some of the cars from California putting out less power than one from say, Michigan?.

Diesels in the UK are still popular, and for a secondhand option they offer good value as some people are keen to get rid of them. Mercedes seem to be hit pretty badly with depreciation on their models, so there's a few bargains to be had.

[lazarus]

11 minutes ago, Butch said:

Would you change to an EV or hybrid Lazarus?. How are the deals working out in the US? Be interested to know as a comparison. A brand new BMWi3 S 5dr Auto here in the UK is £36925 without options, however there is a dealer discount available apparently, plus they can be had for a couple of K cheaper

I know that California has always been super restrictive on emission controls, I might be wrong but back in the 80's weren't some of the cars from California putting out less power than one from say, Michigan?.

Diesels in the UK are still popular, and for a secondhand option they offer good value as some people are keen to get rid of them. Mercedes seem to be hit pretty badly with depreciation on their models, so there's a few bargains to be had.

Nope. My ride...

[Butch]

Just now, lazarus said:

Nope. My ride...

Good choice. W124 a solid, reliable and go on forever. They've got a bit of a cult following here in the UK, especially the diesels because seeing 300K miles plus out of them is pretty common.

[maipenrai]

The odds of me ever buying a new vehicle again are pretty slim - I'll be driving my old junkers as long as I can still find parts to keep them going. I see all manners of newer vehicles coming in and out of my friend's autobody shop and sometimes I drive them in and out for him - some are a real puzzle just to get moving, so crammed full of "features" (a polite word for electronic gimmicks) that he sometimes has to phone the dealers to ask them what to do if they don't want to run or move...rolling computers, way too complicated for the likes of me - any vehicle that takes a special, dealer-provided code to run again after you lift a battery cable off is totally out of the question for me. 

[Butch]

9 hours ago, maipenrai said:

The odds of me ever buying a new vehicle again are pretty slim - I'll be driving my old junkers as long as I can still find parts to keep them going. I see all manners of newer vehicles coming in and out of my friend's autobody shop and sometimes I drive them in and out for him - some are a real puzzle just to get moving, so crammed full of "features" (a polite word for electronic gimmicks) that he sometimes has to phone the dealers to ask them what to do if they don't want to run or move...rolling computers, way too complicated for the likes of me - any vehicle that takes a special, dealer-provided code to run again after you lift a battery cable off is totally out of the question for me. 

Spot on, my daily is a Subaru, no fancy electronics apart from the ECU, AWD system that is tried and trusted, cheap spares and cheap servicing. In the recent snow we had in the UK, it was faultless.

[Lantern]

Are we seeing History repeating though? - Electric and Hybrid cars are not as clean as some may think, the materials used in manufacture are horrifically damaging to the areas they are mined from, and as expected, come from poor 3rd world exploited Countries such as Congo. 

 

What you say is true Butch, but the answer could be right under our noses.

https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-28770876

 

They "cooked" cannabis bark into carbon nanosheets and built supercapacitors "on a par with or better than graphene" - the industry gold standard.

Electric cars and power tools could harness this hemp technology, the US researchers say.

They presented their work at the American Chemical Society meeting in San Francisco.

"People ask me: why hemp? I say, why not?" said Dr David Mitlin of Clarkson University, New York, who describes his device in the journal ACS Nano.

"We're making graphene-like materials for a thousandth of the price - and we're doing it with waste.

 

"The hemp we use is perfectly legal to grow. It has no THC in it at all - so there's no overlap with any recreational activities."

 

 

[Butch]

If anyone is considering buying a second hand Mercedes Hybrid, think again...

This guy was quoted a 15k bill to replace the battery on his relatively young Mercedes Estate.

https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/mercedes-owner-horrified-after-15k-6560818

It may well transpire that EV's and hybrids are, in the long term, worse for the environment than a regular diesel or petrol engined car, more so if it means that the batteries need to be replaced after such a relatively short space of time. What I can't work out is if this is unique to Merc though, as there are plenty of 15 year old 300k+ mile Toyota Prius running around still!.

[forcebwithu]

11 hours ago, Butch said:

If anyone is considering buying a second hand Mercedes Hybrid, think again...

This guy was quoted a 15k bill to replace the battery on his relatively young Mercedes Estate.

https://www.stokesentinel.co.uk/news/stoke-on-trent-news/mercedes-owner-horrified-after-15k-6560818

It may well transpire that EV's and hybrids are, in the long term, worse for the environment than a regular diesel or petrol engined car, more so if it means that the batteries need to be replaced after such a relatively short space of time. What I can't work out is if this is unique to Merc though, as there are plenty of 15 year old 300k+ mile Toyota Prius running around still!.

I don't know much about EV's, but if I were in the market for one I would educate myself as much as possible on what to expect out of the battery.

In this instance he bought a used vehicle and by the nature of buying used, wouldn't know how well the previous owner took care of the battery.

I also think there's more to this story as while the article makes it clear it's an eight year old vehicle and at the time of purchase it had 49,000 miles on it, it isn't stated how long the new owner had the car and how many miles he put on it. I'm left wondering if we had those details the story wouldn't be as sympathetic to the new owner.

Curious if the 15 year old, 300+ mile Prius is still running on their original battery? One article (link) puts the useful life of their batteries at 8-10 years or 100k - 150k miles. Based on that stat the guy with the used Merc should have known he was coming to the end of the useful life of the battery in his car.

Edited January 31, 2022 by forcebwithu

[Butch]

19 hours ago, forcebwithu said:

I don't know much about EV's, but if I were in the market for one I would educate myself as much as possible on what to expect out of the battery.

In this instance he bought a used vehicle and by the nature of buying used, wouldn't know how well the previous owner took care of the battery.

I also think there's more to this story as while the article makes it clear it's an eight year old vehicle and at the time of purchase it had 49,000 miles on it, it isn't stated how long the new owner had the car and how many miles he put on it. I'm left wondering if we had those details the story wouldn't be as sympathetic to the new owner.

Curious if the 15 year old, 300+ mile Prius is still running on their original battery? One article (link) puts the useful life of their batteries at 8-10 years or 100k - 150k miles. Based on that stat the guy with the used Merc should have known he was coming to the end of the useful life of the battery in his car.

I also wondered if there was more to this than the article, it does seem to be one sided in the reporting.

Regarding the Merc, a failed battery makes it undriveable (going into a permanent limp mode) whereas the Prius just gives decreased performance and economy, but looking at the Prius forums, the battery packs seem to be very reliable and by all accounts, many seem to last up to and beyond 300k. Cost for replacement seems to be (in the UK) around £2k at last years prices. Not cheap but I guess if one can be obtained from a damaged car, it might make it easier to swallow.

Like yourself, I'd really research anything I intend to buy if it were an EV or Hybrid. For the meantime I'm sticking to normal internal combustion engines, as I'm only doing around 5k per annum, and with the hopeful addition of a pushbike once the wintwer is over, that might decrease further still.

 

Edited January 31, 2022 by Butch

[Butch]

Well 18 months on from my last reply, things have changed. EV's, secondhand have dropped through the floor apparently. Finance rates have gone up to around 11% and it seems that the point about the environmental damage caused by mining lithium and cobalt are now less of a secret.

We also have Kahn's ULEZ expansion in London areas, I'd compare him to Hitler, but Hitler had more compassion , and less of a complex. The "clean air" narrative is becoming very normalised now, but with little or no supporting evidence.

The combustion engine still rules supreme. For anyone looking for a bargain (like I was today) there are numerous E and C Class Mercedes Coupes 2008 to 2014 going comparatively cheap as they don't meet Ulez. That's a lot of car for the money and I'm only picking one manufacturer.

Secondhand cars are still expensive, but the market has corrected itself a bit since covid.

 

[Lantern]

When a car battery is worn out from running your car, it will still be good to go on to run your house for many years.

 

[Zeb]

 

[tommy dee]

the single biggest issue is the battery.  over a short period, just lke your phone, it become less and less druable and needs rechargin more often until it dies.  the replacement price is high

WORSE, if they catch fire, which they do, it is virtually impossible for a fire brigade to douse them unless they have the ideal and rare equipment.  in a parking area, as an example, or a ferry a single fire would torch the lot

 

but there is good news

 

finally H2 is beng developed as the real next gen.  and it runs in a standard engine design.  will actually be cheaper and more reliable and less damage done

ahem, so I am told

[Zeb]

A declaration of interest on this topic -

I took delivery of a new base model MG4 EV earlier this month, Color "Dover White" .

I love it 😋 Couldn't come up with what I regarded as a valid reason not to.

Trade-in an almost 20 year old clunker and have applied for a AUD$ 3,000 government new EV rebate which I should get.

That will put me in the vehicle for about the same price as a new Toyota Corolla ICE vehicle.

This is how it looks -

  

[Zeb]

All-new MG 4 XPower (Electric motors on both axles) drag races Lamborghini Gallardo and a Nissan GT-R R35!

Video should start at 4:48

 

[Zeb]

3 hours ago, tommy dee said:

1) the single biggest issue is the battery.  over a short period, just lke your phone, it become less and less druable and needs rechargin more often until it dies.  the replacement price is high

2) WORSE, if they catch fire, which they do, it is virtually impossible for a fire brigade to douse them unless they have the ideal and rare equipment.  in a parking area, as an example, or a ferry a single fire would torch the lot

ahem, so I am told

1) Advances in battery technology are coming thick and fast and is being lead by the Chinese. eg -

BYD (a Chinese competitor to MG, also a Chinese company) was primarily a battery manufacturer which started back in 1993 but got into car manufacture over 20 years ago and it and BYD (Full name - Build Your Dream) are in the top group of car manufactures in China and also the world.

BYD is said to supply batteries for 25% of mobile phones in the world as well as supply's Tesla batteries for some of its Tesla vehicles.

Battery life does degrade over time and that is also improving, eg - the BYD Dolphin is a similar car to the MG4.

At its New Zealand launch the Kiwi CEO quoted BYD LFP batteries (Lithium Iron Phosphate) would do a minimum of 4000 recharges.

So lets say for our purposes it "only" gets 2000 recharges and a battery is recharged twice a week.

In reality the major of users would only need one charge a week, buts let run the number on twice a week, or sticking to round numbers 100 charges a year.

That gives you 20 years minimum life with battery technology constantly improving and cost come down.

2) Turning to fires -  a picture is worth a thousand words etc

Gas vs. Electric Car Fires [2023 Findings]
Every year, car fires cause over a billion dollars of property damage losses and kill hundreds of people. Hybrid vehicles have the most vehicle fires, followed by gas and then electric vehicles.

Fires by Vehicle Type
You’re more likely to see a gas car fire after a collision than an electric car fire, simply because electric vehicles aren’t as common on the roads as gas vehicles.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that electric vehicles are less likely to catch fire.

To find the rate of car fires by vehicle type, we collected the latest data on car fires from the NTSB and calculated the rate of fires from sales data from the BTS. Take a look at what we found below.

Gas vehicles referred to below uses the US terminology for petrol (or ICE) vehicles -

Based on this data, electric vehicles don’t catch fire nearly as much as the news claims.

Hybrid cars seem to be the most dangerous for fires, followed by gas (ie petrol) vehicles.

More information -

https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/

.......................

But there is a lot of stored energy in EV batteries and some fires can occur, but many of us travel in aircraft which also contain huge amounts of combustible fuel - as do ICE vehicles.

Again the Based on this data, electric vehicles don’t catch fire nearly as much as the news claims. Hybrid cars seem to be the most dangerous for fires, followed by gas (petrol) vehicles.

Batteries are constantly improving - this is the extent BYD went to to demonstrate the safety of its LFP blade battery -

Video should start at 1:18

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Zeb]

This guy on YouTube reports extensively on all aspects of EV's -

 

https://www.youtube.com/@electricviking/videos

[Zeb]

MG4: The Bargain Of The Century??

 

 

[Zeb]

EV sales increase staggering 173% in Germany

 

[Zeb]

Chinese Battery Maker Picks Illinois for $2 Billion Factory

    Gotion’s plant is expected to begin production next year
    State of Illinois provided incentives valued at $536 million

A Chinese battery maker picked Illinois for a $2 billion gigafactory that’s set to start production next year.

Gotion High-tech Co.’s facility will create 2,600 jobs and is the “most significant new manufacturing investment in Illinois in decades,” Governor J.B. Pritzker said in a statement on Friday.

The plant, focusing on lithium-ion battery cell, battery-pack production and energy storage systems, received state incentives valued at $536 million.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-08/illinois-uses-incentives-to-get-2-billion-chinese-battery-plant?srnd=premium-asia

 

[Butch]

The issue with the EV fires is that th

On 9/8/2023 at 1:53 AM, Zeb said:

1) Advances in battery technology are coming thick and fast and is being lead by the Chinese. eg -

BYD (a Chinese competitor to MG, also a Chinese company) was primarily a battery manufacturer which started back in 1993 but got into car manufacture over 20 years ago and it and BYD (Full name - Build Your Dream) are in the top group of car manufactures in China and also the world.

BYD is said to supply batteries for 25% of mobile phones in the world as well as supply's Tesla batteries for some of its Tesla vehicles.

Battery life does degrade over time and that is also improving, eg - the BYD Dolphin is a similar car to the MG4.

At its New Zealand launch the Kiwi CEO quoted BYD LFP batteries (Lithium Iron Phosphate) would do a minimum of 4000 recharges.

So lets say for our purposes it "only" gets 2000 recharges and a battery is recharged twice a week.

In reality the major of users would only need one charge a week, buts let run the number on twice a week, or sticking to round numbers 100 charges a year.

That gives you 20 years minimum life with battery technology constantly improving and cost come down.

2) Turning to fires -  a picture is worth a thousand words etc

Gas vs. Electric Car Fires [2023 Findings]
Every year, car fires cause over a billion dollars of property damage losses and kill hundreds of people. Hybrid vehicles have the most vehicle fires, followed by gas and then electric vehicles.

Fires by Vehicle Type
You’re more likely to see a gas car fire after a collision than an electric car fire, simply because electric vehicles aren’t as common on the roads as gas vehicles.

However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that electric vehicles are less likely to catch fire.

To find the rate of car fires by vehicle type, we collected the latest data on car fires from the NTSB and calculated the rate of fires from sales data from the BTS. Take a look at what we found below.

Gas vehicles referred to below uses the US terminology for petrol (or ICE) vehicles -

Based on this data, electric vehicles don’t catch fire nearly as much as the news claims.

Hybrid cars seem to be the most dangerous for fires, followed by gas (ie petrol) vehicles.

More information -

https://www.autoinsuranceez.com/gas-vs-electric-car-fires/

.......................

But there is a lot of stored energy in EV batteries and some fires can occur, but many of us travel in aircraft which also contain huge amounts of combustible fuel - as do ICE vehicles.

Again the Based on this data, electric vehicles don’t catch fire nearly as much as the news claims. Hybrid cars seem to be the most dangerous for fires, followed by gas (petrol) vehicles.

Batteries are constantly improving - this is the extent BYD went to to demonstrate the safety of its LFP blade battery -

Video should start at 1:18

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) Turning to fires -  a picture is worth a thousand words etc

Gas vs. Electric Car Fires [2023 Findings]
Every year, car fires cause over a billion dollars of property damage losses and kill hundreds of people. Hybrid vehicles have the most vehicle fires, followed by gas and then electric vehicles.

-----Needs to be presented as a percentile , otherwise it's false representation based upon the dilution of numbers of each type vs one another. It's like saying I'm more likely to be shot by a Muslim in Afghanistan then London.

If 99/100 EV's catch fire and only 1/100 Gas cars catch fire, regardless of the numbers, EV's are more likely by unit to catch fire and thus pose a higher risk and therefore are more dangerous.

 

 

Battery life does degrade over time and that is also improving, eg - the BYD Dolphin is a similar car to the MG4.

At its New Zealand launch the Kiwi CEO quoted BYD LFP batteries (Lithium Iron Phosphate) would do a minimum of 4000 recharges.

So lets say for our purposes it "only" gets 2000 recharges and a battery is recharged twice a week.

In reality the major of users would only need one charge a week, buts let run the number on twice a week, or sticking to round numbers 100 charges a year.

-- That doesn't factor in weather. Batteries, regardless of type degrade faster in colder climates and also hold less charge, also, the environmental damage of creating these batteries last much longer than the lifespan. consider the disposal of the toxic chemicals as well, at end of life versus a Gasoline car.

 

 

But there is a lot of stored energy in EV batteries and some fires can occur, but many of us travel in aircraft which also contain huge amounts of combustible fuel - as do ICE vehicles.

Again the Based on this data, electric vehicles don’t catch fire nearly as much as the news claims. Hybrid cars seem to be the most dangerous for fires, followed by gas (petrol) vehicles.

Avgas by it's nature flame resistant, you can hold a naked flame to Avgas and it won't ignite, it will ignite when atomised, regardless of source. That's why large electric batteries are banned from airfreight whereas Gasoline vehicles are not, because the hazard is greater and the potential outcome of a high temp fire more likely to be serious.

Every form of travel has associated risks, whether it's from an Aircraft or a scooter. The risks of an aircraft catching fire mid flight are very low indeed, the fire usually occurs after having hit the ground at 800 mph.

Every vehicle needs a fuel source, I notice diesel is not mentioned, which is the largest commercial vehicle operated type of fuel from Cars, to lorries to ships to Trains. As Gasoline vehicles make up a  percentage but not all types of vehicle, it's disingenuous not to include the figures for Diesel as well.

OK, a question,

would you fly in the only plane in existence that has crashed 50 times out of 100, or drive in one of 1 million cars on the road which have crashed 1000 times out of 10,000?. do the math. The car is safer.

bottom line is that EV's don't even have an efficiency curve over diesels regarding average running costs over lifetime, only environmental  efficiency, and given that electricity prices and fuel prices are both dynamic who is to tell what happens in the future?.

Edited September 9 by Butch

[Zeb]

3 hours ago, Butch said:

The issue with the EV fires is - Needs to be presented as a percentile

If 99/100 EV's catch fire and only 1/100 Gas cars catch fire, etc

-- That doesn't factor in weather.

Avgas by it's nature flame resistant, you can hold a naked flame to Avgas and it won't ignite,

would you fly in the only plane in existence ........ The car is safer.

 who is to tell what happens in the future?.

lol - In another life I also used to torture statistics for a living 😋 Risk management, compliance etc etc.

I will just add this and then move on, a bit -

....

How safe is flying?

Statistically speaking, flying on a commercial airliner is the safest form of transport there is, according to the US National Safety Council.

There are a range of estimates out there, but based on its analysis of US Census data, it puts the odds of dying as a plane passenger at 1 in 205,552.

That compares with odds of 1 in 4,050 for dying as a cyclist; 1 in 1,086 for drowning, and 1 in 102 for a car crash.

That’s because alongside technological improvements to aircraft over the decades, the whole system of international air travel is carefully regulated.

.....

Moving on then, I have more years behind me then in front of me, like many others on here, so the thing that impresses me about my MG4 EV is – it is FUN to drive and be in.

In the following days I will be doing my first battery recharge.

The battery capacity is 51 KwH. 

Say I recharge when it is down to say 16 KwH's - leaving 35 KwH to "fill up"

Charging costs vary depending on location, speed of recharge, the time of day/ night it is done and market in general etc, but a cost AuD$ 0.29 a KwH is indicative.

35 x 0.29 = $10.15 (plus 10% GST) to "top-off" my tank. (Only charging 35 KwH in this example)

The manufacturer says a Full Charge will give a range of 350 km according to the WLTP standard driving test. Real world will be less, but still.

Charging off peak costs much less and the happiest campers are those who have gone solar to one extent or another - viable options in Australia.

So a nifty city runabout with plenty of bells n whistles, easily able to do runs around regional Australia costing just over US $25,000 and able to "fill its tank" for US $9.60.

But did I mention – it is FUN to drive and be in. Of course I did 😋

"Do not go gently into that good night - Rage, Rage against the closing of the light"

YOLO indeed - as in You Only Live Once - so fill your boots while we can 😋

 

https://mgmotor.com.au/models/mg-mg4/

https://www.drive.com.au/reviews/2024-mg-4-review/

Edited September 10 by Zeb

[Zeb]

Mercedes Benz to use BYD Blade batteries in its NEW electric cars

 

Video is about 8:30 but you will get the drift in the first couple of minutes...