China Cocks It Up

[Kathmandu]

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2021/may/04/out-of-control-chinese-rocket-tumbling-to-earth

[forcebwithu]

^^^ What that article fails to mention is Chinese rockets are not designed for controlled reentry. Wish the remaining parts would land on the HQ for the Chinese Communist Party then they might start playing nice with the rest of the world.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57018542

'Hoping they get lucky'

Astronomer Jonathan McDowell, of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, said the issue of a uncontrolled re-entry is one that is "only a big problem with the Long March 5B".

"Small US and European upper stages also re-enter uncontrolled (and burn up entirely) but the big US or European rockets are specially designed not to leave big stages in orbit; they are always safely disposed of on the first orbit of the flight," he told the BBC.

"China decided they would rather use a simpler design and hope that they get lucky with the stage re-entering uncontrolled but not hurting anyone."

A controlled re-entry would have meant that the rocket can still be controlled by the launch team, for instance via the rocket engine or small thrusters. The debris would usually be steered towards a specific crash site in the middle of the ocean and away from people.

That way, the flight path can be influenced and re-entry can be immediate and at a predictable location.

[Chappo]

its a shame they cannot repurpose these rockets in space to be habitats or provide other components for living / working in space.

 

[Freee!!]

59 minutes ago, Chappo said:

its a shame they cannot repurpose these rockets in space to be habitats or provide other components for living / working in space.

Would be nice, but that would require those rockets to be able to reach a stable orbit above the atmosphere which would kind of defeat their purpose.

I've read this story in multiple publications already and as far as I am concerned, the optimal outcome is debris coming down on the head of Xi Jinping and other members of the Politburo of the CCP.

[Butch]

28 minutes ago, Freee!! said:

Would be nice, but that would require those rockets to be able to reach a stable orbit above the atmosphere which would kind of defeat their purpose.

I've read this story in multiple publications already and as far as I am concerned, the optimal outcome is debris coming down on the head of Xi Jinping and other members of the Politburo of the CCP.

Or within a certain, specfic area of Bangkok.

[forcebwithu]

US military has announced the debris will land somewhere in Turkmenistan. Wish we could somehow nudge the rocket a bit farther east.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/05/07/china-rocket-debris-returns-to-earth-sciutto-culver-scn-sot-tsr-vpx.cnn

 

[Freee!!]

7 minutes ago, forcebwithu said:

US military has announced the debris will land somewhere in Turkmenistan. Wish we could somehow nudge the rocket a bit farther east.

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/business/2021/05/07/china-rocket-debris-returns-to-earth-sciutto-culver-scn-sot-tsr-vpx.cnn

Yup, Beijing (or Pyongyang) would be nice.

[Freee!!]

For those interested:

https://www.theregister.com/2021/05/07/space_debris_regulation/

[fygjam]

In a tweet sent on Friday evening in the United States, the Aerospace Corporation said
that the latest prediction for the re-entry of the Long March 5B rocket body by its Center
for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies (CORDS) was for eight hours on either side of
0419 GMT on Sunday. (That's 0419 +/- 8 hours.)

CORDS' latest "informed prediction" of the rocket body's re-entry location was given
near the North Island of New Zealand, but it noted that re-entry was possible anywhere
along paths covering large swathes of the globe.

The blue track is the 8 hours before 0419, the yellow is the 8 hours after.

https://aerospace.org/reentries/cz-5b-rocket-body-id-48275

About 25 minutes after the predicted time (near New Zealand) it spends about 20 minutes crossing the US/Canada.

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2021 by fygjam

[forcebwithu]

Wonder how the US military narrowed it down to one country when there appears to still be a high degree of uncertainty where and when it will come down? Could be just poor reporting on the part of CNN, which wouldn't surprise me in the least.

[Freee!!]

2 minutes ago, forcebwithu said:

Wonder how the US military narrowed it down to one country when there appears to still be a high degree of uncertainty where and when it will come down? Could be just poor reporting on the part of CNN, which wouldn't surprise me in the least.

They didn't, they just gave the calculated time of reentry with a margin (8 hours, six orbits) and where it would be at the calculated time or reentry. The latter is just a basic orbital calculation.

[fygjam]

Take your pick

EU Space Surveillance and Tracking - 0232 GMT ± 139 minutes

US Space Command - 0204 GMT ± 60 minutes

Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies - 0302 GMT ± 120 minutes

 

It is now 0104 GMT, the window is open.

 

 

Edited May 9, 2021 by fygjam

[forcebwithu]

10 hours ago, Freee!! said:

They didn't, they just gave the calculated time of reentry with a margin (8 hours, six orbits) and where it would be at the calculated time or reentry. The latter is just a basic orbital calculation.

The CNN article I linked to was specific that Turkmenistan had the bullseye painted on it. Won't be long now before we know where the true danger zone is.

[fygjam]

[forcebwithu]

Have a live stream going showing the current position and elevation.

Another livestream has an estimated time of reentry, which is now 1hr 25min at the time of this post.

 

[fygjam]

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

Take your pick

EU Space Surveillance and Tracking - 0232 GMT ± 139 minutes

US Space Command - 0204 GMT ± 60 minutes

Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies - 0302 GMT ± 120 minutes

Now 0215 GMT.

US Space Command - FAIL

 

[fygjam]

Now over the Indian Ocean and heading for Western Australia.

We remember Sky Lab!

 

[fygjam]

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

Take your pick

EU Space Surveillance and Tracking - 0232 GMT ± 139 minutes

Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies - 0302 GMT ± 120 minutes

Now 0233 GMT.

EU Space Surveillance and Tracking - FAIL.

 

[fygjam]

Just passed over Western Australia so I'm safe.

 

[forcebwithu]

Now over Western Australia at an elevation of 147 km. Maybe New Zealand will get to claim salvage rights.

[fygjam]

3 minutes ago, forcebwithu said:

Now over Western Australia at an elevation of 147 km. Maybe New Zealand will get to claim salvage rights.

@Nickrockis already standing by with a butterfly net.

 

[forcebwithu]

5 minutes ago, fygjam said:

@Nickrockis already standing by with a butterfly net.

Looks like he'll need to save the net for another day and another Chinese fail.

[fygjam]

New Zealand survives. Next major landfall, Mexico.

 

[fygjam]

If it crosses the GoM, next target Mar-a-Lago?

 

[fygjam]

2 hours ago, fygjam said:

Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies - 0302 GMT ± 120 minutes

Now 0320 GMT

Center for Orbital Reentry and Debris Studies - FAIL.

And the damn thing is gaining altitude.