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Kathmandu

Handicapping The Breeders Cup World Thoroughbred Championships

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I believe there is a fairly large contingent of European Horses running in the turf races. Any live longshots that you like? Any other horses that stand out to you?

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Hi Kathmandu

Breeders cup is arguably the hardest betting events to figure for UK punter (that would be horse-players your way I guess 😁). Very early, non-committal thoughts! :

 Turf - Enable is circa 0.6, you'd need to have rocks in your head to get involved at that price. She is the best turf horse in the world, but the stats are horrible. 7 Arc winners have gone to the BC and all 7 have been beat.  Any of the other European raiders could spring a shock and turn around the Longchamp (Arc) form.

Dancing Brave was one of the greatest Arc winners ever, but boiled over in Santa Anita- as  the above stat, another 6 less talented ones have tried and failed.

Any ideas on what the going will be? Posted as firm today in the UK but heavy rain forecast. I'd want to see the two juvenile turf races run on Friday before getting involved.

Mile - Polydream 4.0 favourite here, would swerve at that price if the ground is firm. God knows on the rest, will have a good look later in the week, hard though to try to translate European form on what would be soft ground, easy turns in the US, to potentially rock hard ground and tight turns (hence all the shocks but guess Golldikova did it just fine)

Turf Sprint- don't rate any of the European runners in this, look out of their depth.

Classic- Shocked to see Roaring Lion entered here, best European 10 furlong turf horse making it's debut on dirt?? Price at 11.0 reflects this of course, drawn 2. mostly likely to get a load of sand kicked in his face.

I'll get the thoughts of a very decent UK tipster (handicapper) on Saturday, who specialises in US racing,  will post them here for interest. I tend to follow him. Look at what he's putting up and what Mike Smith is riding!!!

Shall have a few small punts on the resulting selections. Like the event but punting on it, is like animated roulette 😀

Good luck sir

Lemon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Lemondropkid said:

Hi Kathmandu

Breeders cup is arguably the hardest betting events to figure for UK punter (that would be horse-players your way I guess 😁). Very early, non-committal thoughts! :

 Turf - Enable is circa 0.6, you'd need to have rocks in your head to get involved at that price. She is the best turf horse in the world, but the stats are horrible. 7 Arc winners have gone to the BC and all 7 have been beat.  Any of the other European raiders could spring a shock and turn around the Longchamp (Arc) form.

Dancing Brave was one of the greatest Arc winners ever, but boiled over in Santa Anita- as  the above stat, another 6 less talented ones have tried and failed.

Any ideas on what the going will be? Posted as firm today in the UK but heavy rain forecast. I'd want to see the two juvenile turf races run on Friday before getting involved.

Mile - Polydream 4.0 favourite here, would swerve at that price if the ground is firm. God knows on the rest, will have a good look later in the week, hard though to try to translate European form on what would be soft ground, easy turns in the US, to potentially rock hard ground and tight turns (hence all the shocks but guess Golldikova did it just fine)

Turf Sprint- don't rate any of the European runners in this, look out of their depth.

Classic- Shocked to see Roaring Lion entered here, best European 10 furlong turf horse making it's debut on dirt?? Price at 11.0 reflects this of course, drawn 2. mostly likely to get a load of sand kicked in his face.

I'll get the thoughts of a very decent UK tipster (handicapper) on Saturday, who specialises in US racing,  will post them here for interest. I tend to follow him. Look at what he's putting up and what Mike Smith is riding!!!

Shall have a few small punts on the resulting selections. Like the event but punting on it, is like animated roulette 😀

Good luck sir

Lemon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Any tips for uk racing gratefully received. Im not much of a gambler but dont mind a punt on a tip lol

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In regards to the weather for the 2 day event: 

Weather Forecast

The outlook is for cool and cloudy conditions on Friday in Louisville, according to Weather.com. A high of 57 degrees is forecast, with a 20 per cent chance of rain. 

Saturday brings a slightly improved forecast, but with conditions remaining unsettled. The outlook is for partly cloudy conditions and a similar chance of rain.

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Roaring Lion couldn't of asked for a worse post position. Drawn to the inside of all the speed in the Classic, he sits at 20-1 on the DRF morning line.  At 5-1 my pick in this race will be West Coast. I'll also play Gunnevera at 20-1, Catholic Boy at 8-1, McKinzie at 6-1 and the favorite, Accelerate at 5-2.

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12 hours ago, Kathmandu said:

Roaring Lion couldn't of asked for a worse post position. Drawn to the inside of all the speed in the Classic, he sits at 20-1 on the DRF morning line.  At 5-1 my pick in this race will be West Coast. I'll also play Gunnevera at 20-1, Catholic Boy at 8-1, McKinzie at 6-1 and the favorite, Accelerate at 5-2.

Curious Kathmandu on your strategy. Do you combine various permutations of the above aiming for a big payment on a trifecta?

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From Greg Wood of the UK Guardian

"The good news from Churchill Downs on Thursday morning is that the rain which started around lunchtime on Wednesday has stopped. The bad news is that according to every available forecast, it has only stopped for now. Drizzle, at least, is likely to set in from dawn – which is in about an hour or so – until early evening, which makes the track’s decision to allow horses to train on the turf course now seem puzzling, to say the least.

In all, there have been around two inches of rain so far, and while it is still a captivating sight to watch dozens of horses exercising under the floodlights, both the dirt and turf tracks are showing clear signs of their overnight drenching. The races scheduled for the turf course later on Thursday afternoon will almost certainly switch to the dirt, as was the case on Wednesday, and while the racing line will be dolled off, it is surprising – indeed, unprecedented here according to one veteran of the meeting – that horses will be allowed on to it at all after so much rain.

It should give us a visual indication of the state of the turf, though, and give big-race jockeys a chance to report back to anxious trainers on the conditions."

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On 11/1/2018 at 1:20 AM, Lemondropkid said:

Curious Kathmandu on your strategy. Do you combine various permutations of the above aiming for a big payment on a trifecta?

Actually, I played an exacta box on the above 5 horses, so I was paid out $130.80 USD. My investment was $20.00. That was a real saver for me. 🙂

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