Why durians are so cheap this year...My AI discussion

[fforest]

Me..... Durian's situation like for the last 10 years there was a bit of a shortage and the price kept rising and rising... So did farmers see a gold rush to get rich so everyone planted durian....  And Now is the gold rush is over and there is to much durian....

 

 

 

 

You hit the nail on the head. That is exactly what is happening. The durian market is experiencing a classic, textbook example of an agricultural boom-and-bust cycle. [1]

Economists call this the "Cobweb Model," but in Southeast Asia, it is known as the Durian Gold Rush. Here is how that exact timeline played out to create the massive oversupply we are seeing now in 2026: [1]

Phase 1: The Shortage & Skyrocketing Prices (2015–2022)

• The Chinese Demand Boom: Around a decade ago, China developed an insatiable obsession with durian. It quickly grew into a multi-billion dollar export industry. [1, 2]
• Low Supply: At the time, only Thailand was legally allowed to export fresh whole durians to China. Because supply was heavily bottlenecked, prices kept climbing year after year. [1]
• The "Green Gold" Hype: High-grade durians became luxury status symbols. Farmers who owned mature trees were suddenly making life-changing money, turning overnight into "durian millionaires."

Phase 2: The Rush to Plant (2018–2023)

• Abandoning Traditional Crops: Seeing the immense profits, farmers in Thailand and Vietnam began tearing down rubber plantations, coffee farms, and traditional rice paddies just to plant durian trees. [1, 2]
• Regional Copies: Neighboring countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and the Philippines aggressively lobbied China for export agreements and cleared massive tracts of land to join the race. [1, 2]
• The Lag Time: Durian trees take 5 to 7 years to mature and produce high-quality fruit. So, while everyone was planting millions of trees around 2018 to 2020, the actual market supply didn't change immediately, keeping prices artificially high for a few more years.

Phase 3: The Market Crash & Too Much Fruit (2025–2026)

• The Trees Matured All At Once: We have officially hit the point where all those millions of hyper-speed rush-planted trees have matured. [1]
• Massive Output Peaks: For example, Thailand's annual durian production is currently skyrocketing toward 2 million tonnes (a 30%+ year-on-year increase). Vietnam is experiencing a parallel domestic explosion in the Mekong Delta. [1, 2, 3]
• The Gold Rush is Over: Because the market is utterly flooded with fruit, farm-gate prices have plummeted significantly over the last two years. Many smaller farmers who invested heavily in expensive fertilizers and water systems are now panicking because their profit margins have completely erased. [1, 2, 3]

What happens next?

The market is shifting from a quantity race to a quality race. Because standard durian is now cheap and abundant, the only way farmers can survive the oversupply is by meeting the incredibly strict premium grading standards required by Chinese customs. Farmers who produce low-grade or premature fruit are getting entirely left behind. 

 

 

 

 

Me....I did not notice much of a price drop last year in Pattaya, but this year i see a huge drop in Durian prices about 2014 2015 2016 prices I would guess...

 

 

Your observation is incredibly accurate, and you are seeing the exact point where macroeconomics hits the local streets. There is a very specific geographic and historical reason why you didn't see the price drop last year in Pattaya, but are seeing a massive "time-machine" drop right now in 2026.

Why Pattaya Felt "Immune" Last Year (2025)

• The Export Priority: Last year, even though overall regional production was rising, international buyers and big export pack-houses (Lhong) in Chanthaburi and Rayong were still aggressively buying up every piece of Grade A and Grade B fruit they could find to send to China. [1, 2]
• The Pattaya Premium: Because Pattaya is a major tourist hub right next door to the primary durian-growing provinces (the East), local vendors kept retail prices high. They could rely on tourists willing to pay premium prices, meaning the surplus fruit hadn't truly trickled down to the local street stalls yet. [1]

Why Prices Have Crashed to 2014–2016 Levels This Year (2026)

This year, the market hit a tipping point where the sheer volume of fruit broke the export bottleneck: [1]

1. The East is Overwhelmed: Pattaya sits right next to Rayong and Chanthaburi, which are currently experiencing a historic, massive peak harvest. Thailand’s total durian output is hitting an astronomical 2.07 million tons this year. There are simply not enough export containers or flights to move that much fruit out of the region fast enough. [1, 2, 3, 4]
2. The "Export Rejects" Flood the Local Stalls: China and Thai authorities heavily tightened quality and maturity checks this year to protect the brand's reputation. Any fruit with minor cosmetic flaws, imperfect shapes, or slightly off-spec maturity gets rejected for export. Because Pattaya is the closest major domestic city to these massive farms, hundreds of tons of perfectly delicious, "imperfect" export-grade durian are being dumped straight into local Pattaya markets. [1, 2, 3, 4]
3. Double-Digit Pricing Returns: At the peak of the gold rush (2021–2024), it was almost impossible to find whole Monthong durian on a Pattaya truck for under 150–180 THB/kg. This season, domestic retail prices for standard grades have slid hard into the 70 to 95 THB per kilogram range—which perfectly mirrors the prices from roughly a decade ago before the massive Chinese export boom went hyper-viral. [1, 2, 3, 4]

You are essentially experiencing the golden era of being a consumer: peak harvest, massive regional supply, and incredibly cheap prices right in your backyard.

 

 

 

 

[Glasseye]

Because they like the smell of shit.

[fygjam]

Ta-ra-ra Boom-de-ay
Durians are cheap today
Cheaper than yesterday
Ta-ra-ra Boom-de-ay

 

[Stillearly]

 

[Butch]

Which is fine if you like Durian, but I don't.

Now, if they could do the same thing with Thai pussy prices...

[fforest]

6 hours ago, Butch said:

Which is fine if you like Durian, but I don't.

Now, if they could do the same thing with Thai pussy prices...

Years ago I used to hate Durians too...The key to good Durians is finding one that is not too hard and not to soft....When you see people touching all the Durians....They are looking for the 50/50 hard/soft Durians...

Edited May 22 by fforest

[Pumpuynarak]

I like..........but they are not cheap where wifey gets them here in Korat.