Thai Spice

57 minutes ago, Mrmango said:

To me, the problem is that a lot of the so called "Science" comes from totally patrician Scientists. 

The whole circus has been taken over by politicians and Big Pharma.

In France 8 doctors (of which some are senior scientist , head of top hospitals or department heads) are being sued by the French doctors board because they openly declared their disagreement with the government strategie.

1 hour ago, Nightcrawler said:

Hopefully, that will not happen, but based on many other World cities, it is highly possible that the number of cases could become thousands in a relatively short period of time. We simply don't know. 

We dont know simply because no mass testing is done...

Because the government doesn't want to see the truth.

34 minutes ago, tommy dee said:

i think the 24 hr count for burmese is around the 200 mark.  and 3 were taken away from our provinve, up on the 331 today, .

I am amazed by your obstination to stick to dream figures ....

11 cases in BKK ......FFS, a city of 10  million people ....

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/no-need-for-panic-over-uks-new-virus-strain/

A few extracts :

Viruses such as SARS-CoV-2 mutate all the time – not deliberately or even cunningly, as some apocalyptic recent coverage seems to imply, but as an inevitable accidental byproduct of the often error-strewn process of viral genome replication.

Such mutations of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which are extremely common in the natural evolution of all viruses, have been recorded in more than 130 countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Iraq, Iran, Israel, Oman, Pakistan and India. There have been more than 750 new strains recorded in the US alone.

In the UK the public health response throughout the pandemic has been compromised by politically motivated indecision, half-measures and demoralizing U-turns, the latest being a confusing series of semi-lockdowns, varying from region to region, and a last-minute reversal of plans, widely condemned by scientists, to relax restrictions over the Christmas period.

11 minutes ago, tommy dee said:

i think you are right but the translation and english is poor so as to infer what we think but actually it could read that the migrant worker count is within that count of 39.

 

No way. 

Same shit as happened in SGP.  Ever been in one of those "laborcamps" ? 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-54082861

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-55314862

"Covid-19: Singapore migrant workers infections were three times higher"

"A rights group has said it is "unsurprised" after it was revealed almost half of Singapore's migrant workers have been infected with Covid-19 in the past nine months.

New data shows that 152,000 foreign workers - 47% - have been infected."

Now apply the same ratios to Thailand .....

No fireworks, no big beach parties here, but that's it.

Restaurant, pubs, clubs open as usual, beaches as well.

Of course if some idiot throws a party in his villa with full blast music till midnight and the neighbours complains, then the police will HAVE to intervene....

2 hours ago, fygjam said:

Lockdowns work, if they don't then you just didn't do it right.

Yep, but our countries have not been turned in convicts camps where you can't even leave the place.

But its not a bad thing. Life in Bali is way better without bogans !

26 minutes ago, Krapow said:

Who's 'they'?

Your government + big pharma + big media

They are working pretty well together on this thing !

46 minutes ago, tommy dee said:

CANT UNDERSTAND THE STUPIDity ( sorry caps) of anyone nt wanting the vaccine,  i get a shot of this that and the other every month.  no pain.  and having this shot is a priority for me and I hope everyone.  i wouldnt let anyone in here without proof of vax after its properly rolled out.  about as weird as nt sending your kids to school cos your dont like the teachers

Completely stupid post and way of thinking.

So because 50% of the people don't think like you and dont follow the herd, you the supreme smart one, is entitled to call them stupid ?

Absolute rubbish, but sadly a sign of the sheep herd world we live in nowadays.

VIVE LA REVOLUTION ! 

54 minutes ago, Freee!! said:

Just wait until travel insurers make it a non quid est.

The key point is not insurers, but more the destination country.

"Developping" countries dont really bother will individual freedoms, so they will probably decide without asking anybody's opinion.

I doubt travel insurers will make it mandatory, they will more likely set an exclusion cause.

Anyway we're still many months away from that....

2 minutes ago, boydeste said:

A successful vaccine is crucial if we want to keep the vunerable protected. That coupled with herd immunity may be the only way we can get back to some normality!

Yes, but the experts admit that to have some herd immunity you need to have 60 to 70% of the population vaccinated.

And they know that is nearly impossible to achieve. 

France is starting vaccinations in old people care houses next week, based on voluntary request by the people. But polls show 50% dont want the vaccine. Amongst private hospital staff that number goes up to over 60%.

Let's wait 2 months to have some meaningfull data to analyse.

1 minute ago, Zeb said:

U.S. will not impose COVID-19 screenings for flights from Britain – sources

WASHINGTON/CHICAGO (Reuters) – The U.S. government does not intend to impose COVID-19 screenings for passengers traveling from Britain after the emergence of a highly infectious new coronavirus variant there, people briefed on the decision said.

White House coronavirus task force members backed requiring negative pre-flight tests after a meeting on Monday, but the Trump administration has decided not to take any action for the time being, the people said.

Much of the world shut their borders to Britain after the discovery of a mutated variant of the novel coronavirus, though the European Union recommended on Tuesday that members roll back sweeping closures to allow some travel.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-britain/u-s-will-not-impose-covid-19-screenings-for-flights-from-britain-sources-idUSKBN28W23B

Another Trump idiotie....

2 hours ago, Stillearly said:

I assume people will be required to have vaccines by employers and health insurance companies, hopefully that will incentive enough to make it effective  

Depends on the country. By employers, in France, NO WAY.

Illegal. 

3 hours ago, boydeste said:

 

 

The virus is never going away, it has always been about trying to save lives and not over loading the NHS while we get an effective vaccine established. I think we are winning all be it slowly.

I know, but thinking that the vaccine will solve all problems is a dream.

But it's an (important) tool amongst others.

Viewed from China. London is the new Wuhan .....

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/china-on-high-alert-as-london-seen-as-new-wuhan/

1 hour ago, code_slayer_bkk said:

I still have not been convinced that these lockdowns and draconian rules work anyway ..

Well, Europe is persisting in that way since March, and we can all see how well it works.....

There we go again, more fear mongering and panic .....

FFS will they ever learn ? Or is it the core of their business to take control.

Remember the 150,000 deaths ?

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/21/calls-for-national-lockdown-in-england-to-curb-spread-of-new-covid-strain

"Government scientific advisers warned that inaction could cost tens of thousands of lives and risk an “economic, human and social disaster”, with the new strain spreading across the UK and overseas."

23 minutes ago, Freee!! said:

And with testing the number of detected cases will go up.

16 minutes ago, JPK said:

I think Thailand  will definitely be getting more cases all over, These migrants that are getting the blame for bringing it to Samut Sakhon never teleported there from the border😀. They will have been travelling around stopping off on the way and eating food and doing whatever. 

Well, well....slowly, slowly reality sets in ......

A pretty good article in Asia Times on this story. And no, it is unlikely that the Burmese brought it with them from Myanmar.

https://asiatimes.com/2020/12/migrant-cluster-breaks-thai-covid-winning-streak/

5 hours ago, galenkia said:

Anyone thinks they are going anywhere before Easter better dream on as these Tiers are here for months. 

Of course Bojo shouting from the roof, and ragpapers titles like that are not gonna help the situation nor the perception by other countries ....

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

Certainly no point when you are wrong and can't see it.

 

 

No point.

2 minutes ago, fygjam said:

In case you didn't realize it, the US is comprised of 50 states. Each state maintains it's own birth, deaths and marriages registry.

 

Feel free to do your own calculations for all 50 states.

 

That's exactly what I said in my first post....

But whatever.

No point speaking with you....

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

Read the paper including the references.

The "publicly available data" came from the National Center for Health Statistics (I wonder what they do), which is part of the CDC.

Where would you like the data to come from?

 

 

Something like the births and deaths registration office or whatever it's called in the Us.

14 minutes ago, Mrmango said:

I am not sure how reliable that number is. The world pretty much had a lockdown, so auto accidents would drop, due to the drastic decline of automobile usage, while other deaths maybe increasing due to the lack of treatment. 

Fully agreed, but if the Covid numbers are as massive as said, the things you mentioned will have a very minor impact.

Now if you read the government stats I posted earlier, you will notice that indeed for the age range 0-24 and25-49 the number of deaths has gone down compared to the same periods in 2019. Which corresponds exactly to the cases you mention. Lower traffic accident, work accidents, crime...

1 hour ago, lazarus said:

Have a look at this. Where I live many more people die of opioid overdose than Covid.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

All-Cause Excess Mortality and COVID-19–Related Mortality Among US Adults Aged 25-44 Years, March-July 2020

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in all-cause mortality among US adults aged 25 to 44 years from March through July of 2020. In 3 HHS regions, COVID-19 deaths were similar to or exceeded unintentional opioid overdoses that occurred during several corresponding months of 2018.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population.

This study has limitations. The provisional data used represent lower-bound estimates due to reporting lags, necessitating future updates. Additionally, although COVID-19 deaths exceeded unintentional opioid deaths in 2018 in some areas, it is possible that simultaneous increases in opioid deaths may have occurred during the pandemic period, making it less clear which of these 2 diseases represents the current leading cause of death among younger adults in areas experiencing COVID-19 surges.

That's not the kind of "info" I am looking for. 

I want official government data like the stats I posted from the UK ONS or France INSEE.

In every country with a system, a death is declared at the city hall or municipality, who then transmit to a central organization. same as births, weddings, divorces, etc .....

What you're showing is far from that. Read your link .....

To determine excess mortality (the gap between observed and expected deaths), projected monthly expected deaths for 2020 were calculated by applying autoregressive integrated moving averages to US population and mortality counts (2015-2019).³ We examined 2020 population and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages for each of the 10 US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions, which comprise the entire US and are the smallest subdivisions for which 2020 age-stratified COVID-19 mortality data are currently available from the National Center for Health Statistics. Population covariates were used to calculate 95% CIs for expected deaths.

Observed all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality (coded as either “underlying cause” or “multiple cause” of death) for March 1, 2020, to July 31, 2020, were obtained from provisional National Center for Health Statistics data (released October 28, 2020).⁴ Unintentional opioid overdose death counts (International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 codes X41-X44, Y11-Y15, and T40.0-6) for the corresponding period of 2018 (the most recently available data) were assembled for each HHS region.³ Incident rates per 100 000 person-months with 95% CIs were calculated for COVID-19 and unintentional opioid deaths using SAS, version 9.4. Statistical significance was defined as a 95% CI that excluded the null value.

This study used publicly available data and was not subject to institutional review approval.

==> Zero value for me.

41 minutes ago, KWA said:

 

 

Some different means of measuremeant there I suspect.  How many of these died with Covid rather than of Covid?  It was no secret earlier in the year that hospitals were getting funding based on the numbers they reported so it benefited them to manipulate the figures.

As I mentioned several times the ONLY reliable indicator is the global excess deaths. i.e. the difference in number of deaths in 2020 compared with the previous years.

Those numbers (reliable) are easily found for most European countries, but I couldn't find them for the US.