Smiler

@Aqualung    Sorry for your family's loss.

1 hour ago, Evil Penevil said:

Another mainstream press analysis of the number of excess deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Evil

Global coronavirus death toll could be 60% higher than reported
Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across 14 countries analysed by the FT

The death toll from coronavirus may be almost 60 per cent higher than reported in official counts, according to an FT analysis of overall fatalities during the pandemic in 14 countries.

Mortality statistics show 122,000 deaths in excess of normal levels across these locations, considerably higher than the 77,000 official Covid-19 deaths reported for the same places and time periods.

If the same level of under-reporting observed in these countries was happening worldwide, the global Covid-19 death toll would rise from the current official total of 201,000 to as high as 318,000.

To calculate excess deaths, the FT has compared deaths from all causes in the weeks of a location’s outbreak in March and April 2020 to the average for the same period between 2015 and 2019. The total of 122,000 amounts to a 50 per cent rise in overall mortality relative to the historical average for the locations studied.

In all the countries analysed except Denmark, excess deaths far outnumbered the official coronavirus death tolls. The accuracy of official death statistics from the virus is limited by how effectively a country is testing people to confirm cases. Some countries, including China, have retrospectively revised up their death tolls from the disease. 
 

 

According to the FT analysis, overall deaths rose 60 per cent in Belgium, 51 per cent in Spain, 42 per cent in the Netherlands and 34 per cent in France during the pandemic compared with the same period in previous years.

Some of these deaths may be the result of causes other than Covid-19, as people avoid hospitals for other ailments. But excess mortality has risen most steeply in places suffering the worst Covid-19 outbreaks, suggesting most of these deaths are directly related to the virus rather than simply side-effects of lockdowns.

David Spiegelhalter, professor of the public understanding of risk at Cambridge university, said the daily counts in the UK, for instance, were “far too low” because they only accounted for hospital deaths.

“The only unbiased comparison you can make between different countries is by looking at all cause mortality . . . There are so many questions about the rise we’ve seen in death that have not got Covid on the death certificate, yet you feel are inevitably linked in some way to this epidemic.”

The extra deaths are most pronounced in urban areas with the worst virus outbreaks, and have completely overwhelmed reporting mechanisms in some. This is especially worrying for many emerging economies, where total excess mortality is orders of magnitude higher than official coronavirus fatalities.

In Ecuador’s Guayas province, just 245 official Covid-related deaths were reported between March 1 and April 15, but data on total deaths show that about 10,200 more people died during this period than in a typical year — an increase of 350 per cent.

In the northern Italian region of Lombardy, the heart of Europe’s worst outbreak, there are more than 13,000 excess deaths in the official statistics for the nearly 1,700 municipalities for which data is available. This is an uptick of 155 per cent on the historical average and far higher than the 4,348 reported Covid deaths in the region.

The region surrounding the Italian city of Bergamo registered the worst increase internationally with a 464 per cent rise in deaths above normal levels, followed by New York City with a 200 per cent increase, and Madrid, Spain, with a 161 per cent increase.

In the Indonesian capital Jakarta, data on burials shows an increase of 1,400 relative to the historical average during the same period — 15 times the official figure of 90 Covid deaths for the same period.

The challenge is not confined to the developing world. In England and Wales, the number of fatalities in the week ending April 10 was the highest this century. The figure was 76 per cent higher than the average for the same week in the past five years, and the number of excess deaths was 58 per cent higher than the total number of reported Covid-deaths for the same period.

“If we want to . . . [understand] the ways different countries have responded to the surging pandemic and how [it] has affected the health of the population, the best way is to count excess deaths,” said David Leon, professor of epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine.

Experts have warned of serious under-reporting of Covid-19 cases in residential facilities for the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable to the virus. “Very few countries appear to be testing people in care homes, staff and residents, systematically,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, research fellow at the Care Policy and Evaluation Centre of the London School of Economics.

Even the much higher numbers of deaths in the pandemic suggested by excess mortality statistics are likely to be conservative, as lockdowns mean that “mortality from numerous conditions such as traffic accidents and occupational injuries possibly went down”, said Markéta Pechholdová, assistant professor of demography at the University of Economics, Prague.

Clarification: A chart in this article was amended to indicate that the mortality data used for Italy is for an incomplete set of that country's municipalities. Complete national mortality data for Italy have not yet been released.

(READ MORE)

Hang on Evil, the figures quoted by the FT would appear to contradict those in TS's spreadsheet. They can't both be correct... 

14 hours ago, Lantern said:

They do grow where I live, and I do love them. Now and again I get a bumper crop but then so has everyone else, you end up giving them away.

Mrs smiler is a farmer's daughter and so throwing produce away is kin painful and just plain wrong for her. What with all the mango we grow and the amount people are giving Yai, she has taken to burying them in the garden under the cover of darkness 😕😁

20 hours ago, galenkia said:

Love mango but they are about £2 each in the supermarket here. 

So it's a treat rather than a regular thing. 

I am not that fond of the type we get here in the supermarket. 

Have you ever noticed the price of the sweet yellow ones at Swampy?

25 minutes ago, Lemondropkid said:

Beer Garden for me- watch the sun go down with a few beers before kicking on with the night.

Good call, can't beat the location.

As someone else posted though it's a lot to do with the company you keep and general vibe in whatever bar at any particular time.

Enjoyed the Rockhouse last time I was in Pattaya with Alex and @Horizondave

This is my favourite Thai fruit, absolutely love the sweet ones, in fact I am dribbling just looking at the photo 😋

According to Mrs smiler there is a huge over supply of them this year. It's been a bumper crop in our garden (sour or sharp) and down on the farm (wan mak mak). 

Subsequently the price per kilo has fallen through the floor to as low as 10 baht. Unheard of apparently... 

Is this just local to Udon or country wide?

20 hours ago, Smiler said:

Farangs talking in thaiglish to each other - ridiculous.

1 hour ago, Pumpuynarak said:

Me same same ........

😁

2 hours ago, dcfc2007 said:

Comparatively they would be right. Look past the glitzy skyscrapers and you see hundreds - possibly thousands - of Thais sat in the scorching heat waiting for a handout of 200b.

This is the sad reality.

Some of the videos (posted by Thais in the main) on my Facebook feed over the last 3 or 4 days are frightening in terms of the growing numbers who need help.

Farangs talking in thaiglish to each other - ridiculous.

Thanks for the replies from guys on the ground. Always good to hear and reassuring with regards to the topic title.

There is an element in any country that is quick to blame immigrants for the problems they face, never more so than in the UK 😒 also in Thailand.

I am concerned for my friend who has been living in Thailand and Laos for a long time. If he is picking up on bad vibes I have no doubt they are real so I guess they are related to his own experiences and circumstances.

For myself I haven't noticed any rise in anti farang sentiment on the limited Thai social media I get to see. Sincerely hope it stays that way.

24 minutes ago, Horizondave said:

The only thing I gain from what you say is that it is obvious that not everybody agrees with each other (and I am talking about the experts) and also difficult to analyse a situation until it is over so what chance is there that everything you or I think is right or wrong.

I suppose that is why we vote in politicians to make these decisions for us, we hope that they are making the best decisions for all of our interests but obviously with unknown situations some of their actions may not be the correct ones.

Sweden has made a different track to most nations and everybody last week was lauding their efforts and lack of lock-down but over the last few days they are seeing increased death figures from the virus.

Really everything is based on best estimate by the powers in charge, informed speculation from experts but the model is different for many. Maybe one model is the best but how will we know until it is all put to bed as best as can be.

Remember Trump says he is going to make decisions based on the smartest minds in their fields advising him and yet there are many who think his stance is continuing to be incorrect, so who (excuse the pun) is right.

Many will come out of this looking brighter in their judgement but many will be proven wrong but they will still no doubt be experts in their field.

Good post.

Spoke to a mate of mine today who has been in Thailand for the last 15 years, he reports there is a very real anti farang feeling around largely due to that twat of a minister and an editorial in the BP 

This is the second time I have heard about it from sources I would trust and I have to say I am a bit shocked buy not completely surprised.

Anyone heard or experienced this?

26 minutes ago, galenkia said:

We got the bad news today. He passed away on Friday. I knew him well over 10 years, proper old school gent. 

RIP Jimmy, you were a top bloke. 😭

f**k this c**t of a virus. 

Stay indoors and keep you and your loved ones safe. 

And it really hits home when you know someone....

RIP your mate and sorry for your loss Gal 

On a more positive note my friend who has been bedridden for the past 5 days got up today. Says she still feels like she has been hit by a bus but definitely better than she was.

21 minutes ago, Horizondave said:

Patients in hospitals, Ray, tend to have Covid 19. We have a system where they call 111, they don't even go to a doctor. They self isolate and only go to hospital when they are probably well down the road of being only able to breathe with great difficulty, they are probably taken to hospital by ambulance.

I think you will find the majority of patients presently in hospital and over whelming the system are actual people with the covid 19 virus.

Doesn't mean people won't panic but self isolation is the expected course that most people take. Of course some will even enjoy the 2 weeks off work as no business can tell you to come in if you 'supposedly' have covid 19 symptoms.

Had news today that a close friend has been sick for the last 4 days with all the Covid symptoms. As Dave said, she called 111 and was told it sounded likely, now self isolating but obviously her old man (husband) is closely monitoring.

1 minute ago, Thai Spice said:

The point is, why stop the whole world economy for 100 or 200k death when we dont do it for diseases that kill EVERY year larger numbers of people.

The point is that Covid 19 is a new killer, patently the world is still learning how to deal with it. Nobody (not even you) knows how many deaths there will be.

2 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

Maybe we should also keep in mind that : 

Malaria kills 400,000 persons every year. But I guess as it is mainly in Africa nobody cares...

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/malaria

Influenza (flu) kills between 250,000 and 5000,000 people every year. In silence.

https://www.medscape.com/answers/219557-3459/what-is-the-global-incidence-of-influenza#qna

Hearth diseases and stroke kill 15 million people every year. In silence.

Diabetes kills close to 2 million people every year. In silence.

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/the-top-10-causes-of-death

But we never stopped the world and went in mass hysteria mode for any of this ?  

Just saying....

 

Why should we keep in mind other things that kill humans?

First flight:  Bournemouth - Jersey

Last Flight:  Bangkok - Heathrow

Shortest Flight  Guernsey -Jersey

Longest Flight : Bangkok - Heathrow

Favourite Airport   Udon (arrivals)

Least favourite  Udon (departures)

Saw a few of his vlogs, he seemed harmless enough but most of all looked like he really enjoyed his time in Thailand and I loved his positivity about the place.

RIP Kev in Thailand.

7 series into the Trailer Park Boys, 5 more to go.....

On 3/30/2020 at 11:06 AM, farangme said:

Tinned tomatoes are brilliant in an English breakfast.

Now for me if you gave me £50 I couldn't eat tinned tomatoes certainly wouldn't be able to keep them down.

1 hour ago, Yessongs said:

 

Just got an e-mail that the car show I was going to in June here, has been postponed......I was hoping Debbie Sath would be there again. Half Cambodian/Half El Salvadorian......would you? 

If she asked me nicely, certainly wouldn't kick her out of bed....

unless I was going to f**k her on the floor 🙂

You are doing the right thing, well played and good luck 🙂