COVID 19 GLOBAL

[Esco]

40 minutes ago, forcebwithu said:

And a report on random sampling for COVID-19

COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate
...
Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.
...

Sounds like good news if it's only 0.4%. Still big in absolute numbers if we ought to assume we'll all get it at some point of course, which is exactly why the lockdown is needed because our healthcare systems simply cannot cope if we all get it at once. 

[galenkia]

Not sure if you can read this but it's why we should support the medical staff 100%

[fygjam]

[Krapow]

1 hour ago, forcebwithu said:

And a report on random sampling for COVID-19

COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 — the virus which causes COVID-19 — spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.

This number matters hugely because it tells us what we need to know in order to judge how deadly the virus is and also how easily it spreads. It tells us, ultimately, how useful the methods are that we are employing in order to combat the virus. As explained here before, the question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

Two weeks ago, the latter published modeling claiming that up to half the UK population might already have been infected with the virus — a level of infection which would mean that lockdown may be the wrong approach, as we would already have achieved a state of herd immunity, preventing the further spread of the disease.

The Gangelt study does not provide support for the idea that half of the population of Britain, or any other country, has been infected with the virus. But for a town to have an infection rate of 15 percent suggests that the virus had spread a lot further than many believed. Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial team, told the FT this week that he believes between three and five percent of the UK population has already been infected.
...
Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.
...

Would be tremendous if true, though there's so much uncertainty about testing at present, tests given false when Doctors are saying they are clearly have Coronavirus etc.

43 minutes ago, Esco said:

Sounds like good news if it's only 0.4%. Still big in absolute numbers if we ought to assume we'll all get it at some point of course, which is exactly why the lockdown is needed because our healthcare systems simply cannot cope if we all get it at once. 

Yea, though as you say, still a huge number if true, and absolutely the lockdown is trying to help level the surge so health care systems don't collapse and loads more die in a short space of time, whether from Covid or whatever other health issue. 

[Ivan the terrible]

1 hour ago, forcebwithu said:

And a report on random sampling for COVID-19

COVID antibody test in German town shows 15 percent infection rate

This morning we have some data giving a little more insight into the great unknown of the coronavirus pandemic: just how widely among the population has SARS-CoV-2 — the virus which causes COVID-19 — spread among the general population. A team at the University of Bonn has tested a randomized sample of 1,000 residents of the town of Gangelt in the north-west of the country, one of the epicenters of the outbreak in Germany. The study found that two percent of the population currently had the virus and that 14 percent were carrying antibodies suggesting that they had already been infected — whether or not they experienced any symptoms. Eliminating an overlap between the two groups, the team concluded that 15 percent of the town have been infected with the virus.

This number matters hugely because it tells us what we need to know in order to judge how deadly the virus is and also how easily it spreads. It tells us, ultimately, how useful the methods are that we are employing in order to combat the virus. As explained here before, the question of how many people already have the infection is at the heart of a debate between epidemiologists at the Imperial College and Oxford university.

Two weeks ago, the latter published modeling claiming that up to half the UK population might already have been infected with the virus — a level of infection which would mean that lockdown may be the wrong approach, as we would already have achieved a state of herd immunity, preventing the further spread of the disease.

The Gangelt study does not provide support for the idea that half of the population of Britain, or any other country, has been infected with the virus. But for a town to have an infection rate of 15 percent suggests that the virus had spread a lot further than many believed. Neil Ferguson, who leads the Imperial team, told the FT this week that he believes between three and five percent of the UK population has already been infected.
...
Data from coronavirus deaths in Gangelt suggests an infection mortality rate of 0.37 percent, significantly below the 0.9 percent which Imperial College has estimated, or the 0.66 percent found in a revised study last week.
...

Superficially goodish news but I wonder if the antibody test been validated ...how many false negatives and  much worse ... false positives

THe Uk are saying they dont have a reliable antibody test

[Krapow]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

Superficially goodish news but I wonder if the antibody test been validated ...how many false negatives and  much worse ... false positives

THe Uk are saying they dont have a reliable antibody test

Yep!

[Rompho Ray]

7 hours ago, Ivan the terrible said:

so...you were talking about private medical inpatient  facilities ?

It was a general comment.

[Rompho Ray]

7 hours ago, fygjam said:

It would be quite an intersting comparative experiment  to get the Rays and fforest type guys and put them all in a location together and let them mingle,have open bars and cafes and casinos  to their hearts content so long as they remain quarantined from the rest of us.

How about we do that with the sick people and those potentially exposed instead, and let the fforest types and Rays who are putting exactly nobody at risk that anyone knows of live our lives?  They USED TO call THAT "quarantine", and we used to think that worked before fascists decided that the government had the power to cancel everybody's civil liberties and commandeer economies because of a few wildly-inaccurate models.

Edited April 11, 2020 by Rompho Ray

[fygjam]

6 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

How about we do that with the sick people and those potentially exposed instead, and let the fforest types and Rays who are putting exactly nobody at risk that anyone knows of live our lives?  They USED TO call THAT "quarantine", and we used to think that worked before fascists decided that the government had the power to cancel everybody's civil liberties and commandeer economies because of a few wildly-inaccurate models.

You are giving me credit where it is not due!

 

[Rompho Ray]

4 hours ago, galenkia said:

2108 recorded deaths in the US yesterday. 

What does it take for some members here to understand the reality of this situation. 

Half of those deaths happened in two states.  It also disproportionately kills the very old, the very sick, and those with serious medical issues.  Further, in the US, anyone who contracts the coronavirus then dies is counted as having died of the Bat Soup Flu, regardless of how close they were to death's door otherwise.

What does it take for some members here to understand that this is a localized problem which should be dealt with in a targeted way, without the LMSM trying to blow it into something that it isn't, and let everyone else get on with their lives, just like we do with the flu and pneumonia and sepsis and lots of other diseases that do the same things?

[Rompho Ray]

8 minutes ago, fygjam said:

You are giving me credit where it is not due!

Well, when you backflipped and started agreeing with me, I figured it was the least I could do.

[Ivan the terrible]

4 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

How about we do that with the sick people and those potentially exposed instead, and let the fforest types and Rays who are putting exactly nobody at risk that anyone knows of live our lives?  They USED TO call THAT "quarantine", and we used to think that worked before fascists decided that the government had the power to cancel people's civil liberties and commandeer economies because of a few wildly-inaccurate models.

of course the sick and exposed should be quarantined...that isnt the point

The salient issues  are

1 An incubation period of roughly 2-15 days --the mean is 5 days during which time ,as the patient approaches the symptomatic period,they can shred infective viral loads and thus infect people around them

2 near no symptom and assymptomatic infected people shedding infective viral  dose loads ..also infecting people around them

The Ro of this virus is in the range of 2-3, meaning 1 person will infect 2-3 others ...you can see how it will grow exponentially if there is not strict social distancing .Such a rapid rise completely paralyses any health service ,overwhelmed,they fail. 

Even a proposed "uninfected" group going about there normal daily lives without restriction will also ultimately succumb.

 

 

[fygjam]

2 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

Half of those deaths happened in two states.  It also disproportionately kills the very old, the very sick, and those with serious medical issues.  Further, in the US, anyone who contracts the coronavirus then dies is counted as having died of the Bat Soup Flu, regardless of how close they were to death's door otherwise.

What does it take for some members here to understand that this is a localized problem which should be dealt with in a targeted way, without the LMSM trying to blow it into something that it isn't, and let everyone else get on with their lives, just like we do with the flu and pneumonia and sepsis and lots of other diseases that do the same things?

Localized to planet Earth!

 

[Rompho Ray]

4 hours ago, thegrogmonster said:

A close death I would imagine.   

Not really.  My father died of cancer due to smoking, and I still believe it's people's right to smoke if they want.  People have the right to take risks, and if they don't want to they have the right to quarantine themselves and let the rest of us get on with it.  I would also still believe that everyone else should drive cars even if I had a close friend or family member who died in a car accident.

Nobody quit their jobs and hid in their homes when I was in the hospital having gotten my hips replaced, and I was prone to all those diseases that people parade through the wards with every day.  Did I want them to?  Of course not, it never crossed my mind.

I know a guy who died of this.  Nice guy, friend of a friend mostly, but I met him a few times.  Seemingly in good health.  Did that change my mind?  Of course not.  People die unexpected and unexplained deaths every day.

[Rompho Ray]

3 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Localized to planet Earth!

Good start.  Keep drilling down.  A little more interest in facts might not hurt either.

[Ivan the terrible]

4 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

Half of those deaths happened in two states.  It also disproportionately kills the very old, the very sick, and those with serious medical issues.  Further, in the US, anyone who contracts the coronavirus then dies is counted as having died of the Bat Soup Flu, regardless of how close they were to death's door otherwise.

What does it take for some members here to understand that this is a localized problem which should be dealt with in a targeted way, without the LMSM trying to blow it into something that it isn't, and let everyone else get on with their lives, just like we do with the flu and pneumonia and sepsis and lots of other diseases that do the same things?

sepsis pneumonia and  do not have a Ro of 2-3

flu is the only comparable infective agent but has a mortality rate of 01..this is at least 5x or maybve 10x more deadly although i appreciate further work is needed to assess mortality rate...its best guess atm 

[Rompho Ray]

Just now, Ivan the terrible said:

sepsis pneumonia and  do not have a Ro of 2-3

And we have no idea of the R0 of the Bat Soup Flu, because we have no idea of the actual number of cases because testing is sparse and only done on the sick.  No need to answer your next point because it also agrees with me.

 

[Stillearly]

 

[Rompho Ray]

2 hours ago, fygjam said:

2 hours ago, fforest said:

a virus that so far 0.0013% of the world's population didn't recover from.....

FIFY

FIFY

[Rompho Ray]

13 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

The salient issues  are...

No different from many other infections we deal with routinely, without shutting down $100s of trillions in economic activity.  And again we have no idea of the R0 or the mortality rate of this disease, and pretty much all of the models have been wrong.

[Ivan the terrible]

5 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

And we have no idea of the R0 of the Bat Soup Flu, because we have no idea of the actual number of cases because testing is sparse and only done on the sick.  No need to answer your next point because it also agrees with me.

 

Intuitively ,unless you have no eyes to see or ears to hear  ,we know its bad...I have never seen hospitals suddenly crammed full of critically ill people in my lifetime..new hospitals being built asap to hold back the tide,,it truly is unprecedented..a word much overused of late but not in this context 

[Ivan the terrible]

1 minute ago, Rompho Ray said:

No different from many other infections we deal with routinely, without shutting down $100s of trillions in economic activity.  And again we have no idea of the R0 or the mortality rate of this disease, and pretty much all of the models have been wrong.

Vastly different ..of a different magnitute 

Edited April 11, 2020 by Ivan the terrible

[Rompho Ray]

1 minute ago, Ivan the terrible said:

Intuitively ,unless you have no eyes to see or ears to hear

I see and hear what the LMSM is saying, and I know they are working various agendas, so I factor that into my interpretations.  I also see that you didn't refute my statement.  And, over 85% of people being tested for Bat Soup Flu are testing negative, indicating irrational panic caused by the aforementioned LMSM (and people like the Chicken Littles on this board) is making people stampede emergency rooms and hospitals whereas they normally would stay home, take an aspirin, and whine about man-flu for a few days.

[Rompho Ray]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

Vastly different ..of a different magnitute 

...he wildly guessed, without any good data.

[galenkia]

2 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said:

No different from many other infections we deal with routinely, without shutting down $100s of trillions in economic activity.  And again we have no idea of the R0 or the mortality rate of this disease, and pretty much all of the models have been wrong.

The fact is mate that it's a massive strain on health services, who are already stretched to the limits. 

Fill the wards full of Coronavirus victim's and then what happens to heart attack victims for example?. 

'Sorry, we ain't got a bed for you because everyone has Coronavirus because people were only concerned about themselves'