COVID 19 GLOBAL

[lazarus]

Note...not political.
Just a historical look at the President of the United States' COVID-19 response. 

88,507 Americans have died of COVID-19 as of 15 May 2020
(ref: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/)

 

[fygjam]

6 hours ago, Kathmandu said:

1600 a day dying in the USA. We will blow past 100k by June 1. But it's all good. Wisconsin opening their bars. No masks, no distancing, shots flying like mad, crawling over each other to get a drink, sharing pool cues, shitting and pissing in the lavatory without washing hands. I hope these people are members of "the herd", cause the herd needs to be culled of these idiots.

Look on the bright side. Last year there was a 40 year waiting list for a Green Bay Packers season ticket. Could be much less in 2021.

 

[fygjam]

Information for a few, amusement for others.

Coronavirus causes rise in bizarre ‘sovereign citizens’ movement

It first surfaced in law-abiding Singapore earlier this year. Now this “extreme” new movement is spreading around the world.

 

That theory had a loud and rowdy entrance into the coronavirus arena in normally
lawabiding Singapore earlier this month.

Amid an outbreak of COVID-19 cases, the city-state mandated the wearing of masks in
public. One woman, who reportedly had lived in Australia prior to Singapore, reportedly
did not agree.

On May 5, the woman was stopped by police after it’s alleged she failed to wear a mask
when at a hawker market. Police said it wasn’t the first time. It’s also alleged the
40-yearold ate at a table in the food court, also on the current list of no-no’s.

In a video reportedly from the confrontation, the woman claimed she was “sovereign” and
therefore was able to ignore the rules, according to Singapore’s Straits Times.

“I’m a sovereign … This is something people are not going to know what it is,” she said.

“It means I have nothing to do with the police, it means I have no contract with the police.
They have no say over me.”

She was charged with one count of being a public nuisance and three counts of violating
COVID-19 rules.

At a court hearing the next day, the newspaper reported the woman as saying she “extended
my sovereign immunity”.

“I am a living woman and that is my only capacity in this matter.”

She was remanded at a mental health facility ahead of her next court appearance on May 19.

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/coronavirus-causes-rise-in-bizarre-sovereign-citizens-movement/news-story/e6868c633245824cc2cbaefc7be1277b

 

[Thai Spice]

                                 GLOBAL DEATHS IN FRANCE – UPDATE 04/05/2020

 

So, a quick update on last week figures :

Again, remember my point of view :

-        Only global death rate variation with previous years is a reliable indicator

-        It is also the only one that gives a proper comparison base between country (brought in %). You can’t use the Corona death numbers as each country has a different way of counting them.

-        This info is from INSEE  (equivalent of the UK O.N.S.) and is reliable, although one has to keep in mind a 1 to 2 week delay in date transmission / exploitation. Note that you have similar info from the ONS here :

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

-        Those number are just a start for further analyse work to have a fair idea of the impact of Corona in the global numbers.

-        Remember also that previous years numbers may have been impacted by the intensity of flu and other seasonal diseases.

 

 

1)     Updated list of daily deaths 2020 (all France) period 01/03 to 04/05, compared to the same period in 2019 / 2018 :

One can clearly see the increase compared to previous years started mid-March, peaked 1st week of April and has since then retraced to “normal” levels, and even a bit lower. I had been writing that logically we could see lower death rates in the coming weeks, compared to previous years, due to a certain number of deaths being brought forward in time by the virus. I mean, people who were in their last weeks / months and got hit in April, but who anyway would have likely died “naturally” in the following months.

The numbers (here under)  from 29/04 onwards are indeed lower than previous years. But, it’s too early to make conclusion. It could be due to late reporting as well !

 

2)     Updated list of daily cumulated deaths 2020 (all France), period 01/03 to 04/05, compared to the same period in 2019 / 2018 :

Yellow curb (2020) has flattened out and continue parallel to previous years curbs.

 

3)     Evolution per age sector, and sex of cumulated deaths for the period 01/03 to 04/05  2020 vs 2019 :

You can clearly see the age risk with a big evolution is 65+, and men are more at risk than women.  Again the man / woman thing should be compared with the demographics in this age range.

 

Note from the INSEE concerning the age range (translated by Google) :

“Before the age of 50, the number of deaths recorded in the period from March 1 to May 4, 2020 is down compared to the same period in 2019. This decrease is 17% among those under 25 years of age, and particularly among young men (-21%), probably due to containment measures that may affect other causes of death, including accidental death. This decrease in mortality among the youngest is also observed in the regions heavily affected by the Covid-19 epidemic (-6% in the Ile-de-France and The Hauts-de-France, - 12% in the Greater East and - 33% in Burgundy-Franche-Comté).

It is 4% among people aged 25 to 49. Beyond that, the number of deaths is growing even faster between 2019 and 2020 as the age increases: 9% between 50 and 64, 19% between 65 and 74%, 26% between 75 and 84 years and 27% over 85. It even doubles beyond 85 years in the ile-de-France.”

 

4)     Location of death :

This are the variations for the period 01/03/20 to 04/05/20 compared to the same period in 2019

One can clearly see that the main increase happened in care homes. This confirms several other reports and figures from different European countries clearly indicating that most of deaths happened in care homes.

 ==>  This also means that Covid death numbers given by countries that don't integrate the deaths in care homes are meaningless, and probably vastly underestimated. Again, only global death variation is a valid indicator !

 

Note from INSEE (Google translate) :

“Of the deaths recorded between March 1 and May 4, 2020 in France, 66,400 occurred in a hospital or clinic (50% of recorded deaths), 32,400 occurred at home (24%), 20,100 in a facility for the elderly (15%) and 14,800 in another location or an indeterminate location (11%). This distribution of deaths by place of occurrence is close to that observed in 2019 with slightly fewer deaths in hospital or clinic (50% vs. 53% in 2019) and slightly more in retirement homes (15% versus 12% in 2019).

Deaths in institutions for the elderly during this period increased very sharply between 2019 and 2020, much more than other deaths: 49% from March 1 to May 4, 2020 compared to the same dates in 2019, compared to 26% at home and 15% in hospitals or clinics.

These deaths occur in nearly 8 out of 10 cases of people aged 85 and over and in almost two-thirds of cases of women. Those proportions were close in 2019. Nevertheless, the very large increase in mortality in nursing homes on these dates was more pre-affected by men (up 63%) women (up 43%), and 65-74 year olds (up 59%) 75 and over (up 47%).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred in nursing homes, which was in the order of 210 per day in the first half of March 2020, increases very sharply in the second half of March until 7 April. It thus reaches 460 deaths per day during the first half of April but is now only 190 deaths per day on average between April 28 and May 4.

The number of deaths in nursing homes is thus tripled in the Ile-de-France and almost twice in the Greater East over the entire period.

 

Deaths at home between March 1 and May 4 increased by 26% between 2019 and 2020. They involved as many women as men (51% vs. 49%), in 20% of those aged 75 to 84 and in 50% of cases those aged 85 and over. For those older people (aged 85 and over) the increase was the largest (up 34% vs. 26% on average). At home, the increase in mortality also affected women more (up 30%) men (up 24%).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred at home, which was in the order of 430 per day in the first half of March 2020, increased sharply until 5 April. It reached 620 deaths per day during the first half of April but was down to an average of 360 deaths per day between April 28 and May 4.

The increase in home mortality during this period was faster than that of all deaths in thirteen regions, notably in the Ile-de-France (up 91% vs. 83% on average), Normandy, Pays de la Loire, Brittany, Occitanie, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes or Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. This is not the case in the Greater East region (up 41% at home compared to 49% on average) or in the Hauts-de-France region (up 19% versus 23% on average).

Deaths in hospitals and clinics between March 1 and May 4 increase by 15 per cent between 2019 and 2020. The increase is more pronounced for men (up 20% vs. 11% for women) and older women. Those who died in hospital between March 1 and May 4, 2020 were men in 55% of cases (compared to 53% in 2019), aged 65 to 84 in 44% of cases (compared to 42% in 2019) and 85 and over in 42% of cases (as in 2019).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred in a health facility, which was in the order of 940 per day in the first half of March 2020, increased sharply until the end of March. It reached 1,180 deaths per day during the first half of April but was down to an average of 780 deaths per day between April 28 and May 4.

 

OK, I think that's enough for today ?  

[Ivan the terrible]

1 hour ago, Thai Spice said:

                                 GLOBAL DEATHS IN FRANCE – UPDATE 04/05/2020

 

So, a quick update on last week figures :

Again, remember my point of view :

-        Only global death rate variation with previous years is a reliable indicator

-        It is also the only one that gives a proper comparison base between country (brought in %). You can’t use the Corona death numbers as each country has a different way of counting them.

-        This info is from INSEE  (equivalent of the UK O.N.S.) and is reliable, although one has to keep in mind a 1 to 2 week delay in date transmission / exploitation. Note that you have similar info from the ONS here :

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

-        Those number are just a start for further analyse work to have a fair idea of the impact of Corona in the global numbers.

-        Remember also that previous years numbers may have been impacted by the intensity of flu and other seasonal diseases.

 

 

1)     Updated list of daily deaths 2020 (all France) period 01/03 to 04/05, compared to the same period in 2019 / 2018 :

One can clearly see the increase compared to previous years started mid-March, peaked 1st week of April and has since then retraced to “normal” levels, and even a bit lower. I had been writing that logically we could see lower death rates in the coming weeks, compared to previous years, due to a certain number of deaths being brought forward in time by the virus. I mean, people who were in their last weeks / months and got hit in April, but who anyway would have likely died “naturally” in the following months.

The numbers (here under)  from 29/04 onwards are indeed lower than previous years. But, it’s too early to make conclusion. It could be due to late reporting as well !

 

2)     Updated list of daily cumulated deaths 2020 (all France), period 01/03 to 04/05, compared to the same period in 2019 / 2018 :

Yellow curb (2020) has flattened out and continue parallel to previous years curbs.

 

3)     Evolution per age sector, and sex of cumulated deaths for the period 01/03 to 04/05  2020 vs 2019 :

You can clearly see the age risk with a big evolution is 65+, and men are more at risk than women.  Again the man / woman thing should be compared with the demographics in this age range.

 

Note from the INSEE concerning the age range (translated by Google) :

“Before the age of 50, the number of deaths recorded in the period from March 1 to May 4, 2020 is down compared to the same period in 2019. This decrease is 17% among those under 25 years of age, and particularly among young men (-21%), probably due to containment measures that may affect other causes of death, including accidental death. This decrease in mortality among the youngest is also observed in the regions heavily affected by the Covid-19 epidemic (-6% in the Ile-de-France and The Hauts-de-France, - 12% in the Greater East and - 33% in Burgundy-Franche-Comté).

It is 4% among people aged 25 to 49. Beyond that, the number of deaths is growing even faster between 2019 and 2020 as the age increases: 9% between 50 and 64, 19% between 65 and 74%, 26% between 75 and 84 years and 27% over 85. It even doubles beyond 85 years in the ile-de-France.”

 

4)     Location of death :

This are the variations for the period 01/03/20 to 04/05/20 compared to the same period in 2019

One can clearly see that the main increase happened in care homes. This confirms several other reports and figures from different European countries clearly indicating that most of deaths happened in care homes.

 ==>  This also means that Covid death numbers given by countries that don't integrate the deaths in care homes are meaningless, and probably vastly underestimated. Again, only global death variation is a valid indicator !

 

Note from INSEE (Google translate) :

“Of the deaths recorded between March 1 and May 4, 2020 in France, 66,400 occurred in a hospital or clinic (50% of recorded deaths), 32,400 occurred at home (24%), 20,100 in a facility for the elderly (15%) and 14,800 in another location or an indeterminate location (11%). This distribution of deaths by place of occurrence is close to that observed in 2019 with slightly fewer deaths in hospital or clinic (50% vs. 53% in 2019) and slightly more in retirement homes (15% versus 12% in 2019).

Deaths in institutions for the elderly during this period increased very sharply between 2019 and 2020, much more than other deaths: 49% from March 1 to May 4, 2020 compared to the same dates in 2019, compared to 26% at home and 15% in hospitals or clinics.

These deaths occur in nearly 8 out of 10 cases of people aged 85 and over and in almost two-thirds of cases of women. Those proportions were close in 2019. Nevertheless, the very large increase in mortality in nursing homes on these dates was more pre-affected by men (up 63%) women (up 43%), and 65-74 year olds (up 59%) 75 and over (up 47%).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred in nursing homes, which was in the order of 210 per day in the first half of March 2020, increases very sharply in the second half of March until 7 April. It thus reaches 460 deaths per day during the first half of April but is now only 190 deaths per day on average between April 28 and May 4.

The number of deaths in nursing homes is thus tripled in the Ile-de-France and almost twice in the Greater East over the entire period.

 

Deaths at home between March 1 and May 4 increased by 26% between 2019 and 2020. They involved as many women as men (51% vs. 49%), in 20% of those aged 75 to 84 and in 50% of cases those aged 85 and over. For those older people (aged 85 and over) the increase was the largest (up 34% vs. 26% on average). At home, the increase in mortality also affected women more (up 30%) men (up 24%).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred at home, which was in the order of 430 per day in the first half of March 2020, increased sharply until 5 April. It reached 620 deaths per day during the first half of April but was down to an average of 360 deaths per day between April 28 and May 4.

The increase in home mortality during this period was faster than that of all deaths in thirteen regions, notably in the Ile-de-France (up 91% vs. 83% on average), Normandy, Pays de la Loire, Brittany, Occitanie, Nouvelle-Aquitaine, Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes or Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur. This is not the case in the Greater East region (up 41% at home compared to 49% on average) or in the Hauts-de-France region (up 19% versus 23% on average).

Deaths in hospitals and clinics between March 1 and May 4 increase by 15 per cent between 2019 and 2020. The increase is more pronounced for men (up 20% vs. 11% for women) and older women. Those who died in hospital between March 1 and May 4, 2020 were men in 55% of cases (compared to 53% in 2019), aged 65 to 84 in 44% of cases (compared to 42% in 2019) and 85 and over in 42% of cases (as in 2019).

The number of deaths reported to have occurred in a health facility, which was in the order of 940 per day in the first half of March 2020, increased sharply until the end of March. It reached 1,180 deaths per day during the first half of April but was down to an average of 780 deaths per day between April 28 and May 4.

 

OK, I think that's enough for today ?  

good data ...now just think this has happened in many  western european country,the US ,Russia Canada,Brazil etc etc 

Iran is into its 2nd wave now

[farangme]

4 hours ago, lazarus said:

Note...not political.
Just a historical look at the President of the United States' COVID-19 response. 

88,507 Americans have died of COVID-19 as of 15 May 2020
(ref: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/country/united-states/)

 

That's closest to God, right there. 

[fygjam]

20 minutes ago, farangme said:

That's closest to God, right there. 

God is a narcissistic bully with bad makeup and a poor attempt to hide his balding pate?

 

[Thai Spice]

57 minutes ago, farangme said:

That's closest to God, right there. 

 

34 minutes ago, fygjam said:

God is a narcissistic bully with bad makeup and a poor attempt to hide his balding pate?

 

 

21 minutes ago, farangme said:

He's the saviour for America. A Man that puts His people first and has this fake Covid scam sussed out. While we in the UK (laughable that) drown in diversity and different regional Governments, different lockdowns etc, you (If you're American) have a Man, a great leader with a clear purpose. You're very very lucky.

Mmmmmm, maybe need to move this to the Trump thread ?

 

[galenkia]

5 hours ago, Ivan the terrible said:

good data ...now just think this has happened in many  western european country,the US ,Russia Canada,Brazil etc etc 

Iran is into its 2nd wave now

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

[Bazle]

22 minutes ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

I think the same just from observing people walking around. 

[Painter]

 

25 minutes ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

 

1 minute ago, Bazle said:

I think the same just from observing people walking around. 

Saw a minibus park in the beach carpark near me yesterday.

14 people emerged, all of a similar age (early 20s?).

5 minutes later another of 10 appeared. All friends with the first bus load. 

 

[fforest]

38 minutes ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

2nd wave I think not........

If there is a 2nd wave it will be in the fall.......They want people to relax a little bit now........... if there is a 2nd wave they will want to shock people hard sending hopeful business owners into despair along with the general population.....The way they see it, to make the whole thing fun you need to let people relax a bit because it increases the shock value if they decide to close everything down again....

[Horizondave]

50 minutes ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

London buses are free as well which will just make it more difficult to keep people off them

[Ivan the terrible]

1 hour ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

Khan cannot look beyond the leftish agenda...I ouldnt scape him off my shoe untili came across a steaming pile

[fygjam]

34 minutes ago, fforest said:

2nd wave I think not........

If there is a 2nd wave it will be in the fall.......They want people to relax a little bit now........... if there is a 2nd wave they will want to shock people hard sending hopeful business owners into despair along with the general population.....The way they see it, to make the whole thing fun you need to let people relax a bit because it increases the shock value if they decide to close everything down again....

Sorry, meant to give you this last Thursday.

[Ivan the terrible]

1 hour ago, Painter said:

 

 

Saw a minibus park in the beach carpark near me yesterday.

14 people emerged, all of a similar age (early 20s?).

5 minutes later another of 10 appeared. All friends with the first bus load. 

 

fucking hell...darwinism...but it affects all of us ...what the hell do you do ,,,exasperrated....

[Ivan the terrible]

Is there a case for compulsory isolation ie jail for fuckwits ?It must be getting close

[Painter]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

fucking hell...darwinism...but it affects all of us ...what the hell do you do ,,,exasperrated....

As locals we were exactly  that... like, wtf...?!

Can guarantee it'll be people like those on the minibuses that shout loudest when we're locked down again later this week because the R has increased. I really hope it doesn't happen, but....

[galenkia]

5 minutes ago, Painter said:

As locals we were exactly  that... like, wtf...?!

Can guarantee it'll be people like those on the minibuses that shout loudest when we're locked down again later this week because the R has increased. I really hope it doesn't happen, but....

My money is on a lockdown as the 'R' level is increasing. 

Blame the idiots who think this is an overreaction. 

A few are on here. 

[JPK]

1 hour ago, galenkia said:

Can see a second wave here for sure as people get more complacent. 

Just look at public transport. 

And now the London Mayor has increased congestion charge by 30% so more people will be forced to use it. 

Definitely ,seems to be loads of people not bothering their arse about it now.  I was driving my car earlier and seen a group of weird looking people hanging around Glasgow green, supposedly some anti lockdown demonstration. Looking at them the vast majority of them should be getting their hard drives seized by the police 😀

There must have been maybe 40/50 of them hanging around with banners about 5G and Covid-19 😂. I read in one of the papers it's that fat slag from Britains first that's organising the protests. Fingers crossed she gets a dose of the old covid  😀

[Ivan the terrible]

9 minutes ago, Painter said:

As locals we were exactly  that... like, wtf...?!

Can guarantee it'll be people like those on the minibuses that shout loudest when we're locked down again later this week because the R has increased. I really hope it doesn't happen, but....

the R  is increasing scarily

[lazarus]

6 hours ago, farangme said:

That's closest to God, right there. 

Growing up in my house at the dinner table it was said,

"Praise the Lord, pass the ketchup..."

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by lazarus

[Painter]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

the R  is increasing scarily

Dont know whether to give you a thumbs up, because yes, I agree it is, or a gulp because yes, I agree it is...!

Interestingly at least 2 local authorities have said they will not be reopening schools on the 1st (Liverpool and ?Hartlepool?) as they believe the R in their area is too high. I'm sure others will follow, assuming we are not locked down again.

Of course if we are locked down again, that Scottish woman will stick her thumbs in her ears, whiggle her fingers, and shout at Johnson "told you so"!

[lazarus]

Hey...I haven't had a beer with my mates in like one month...

"Wisconsin bars were packed with people almost immediately after the state's supreme court struck down the governor's stay-at-home order on Wednesday. Videos from several bars showed patrons enjoying a night out after more than a month of isolation — even though being in a crowded public place means risking exposure to the coronavirus. In one video, taken by a local TV station, a nurse is seen sitting with other people at a bar without a face mask on..."

. . .

Hospital responds after video shows one of their nurses in a crowded Wisconsin bar without a mask

When asked if she was worried, Koutsky said, "I don't think the risk presents any higher than going to a grocery store." 

story: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-bar-nurse-hospital-responds/

Edited May 16, 2020 by lazarus

[lazarus]

15 minutes ago, lazarus said:

. . .

Hospital responds after video shows one of their nurses in a crowded Wisconsin bar without a mask

When asked if she was worried, Koutsky said, "I don't think the risk presents any higher than going to a grocery store." 

story: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/wisconsin-bar-nurse-hospital-responds/

The story forgot to mention that she also said...

"When you weigh 100+ kilos it's impossible to get laid in a grocery store.  Beer goggles help a lot."