Covid19/SARS-CoV-2. Panic but make it informed panic.

[Ivan the terrible]

Maybe some good news from "probably" the nation with the most intelligent population on the planet 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/scientists-in-israel-likely-to-announce-it-developed-coronavirus-vaccine/articleshow/74592807.cms

[dcfc2007]

Just now, Ivan the terrible said:

Maybe some good news from "probably" the nation with the most intelligent population on the planet 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/science/scientists-in-israel-likely-to-announce-it-developed-coronavirus-vaccine/articleshow/74592807.cms

I've seen a few claims from different groups that they have found a vaccine.

[Freee!!]

3 hours ago, Krapow said:

Turkey? Turkey's fine, same as last year, we all loved the place so much we're going back, hopefully, if they allow us. They've just stopped a load of European countries, but not the UK yet -

https://punchng.com/coronavirus-turkey-stops-flights-to-nine-european-countries/

Turkey is either severely underreporting or just not testing.

Edited March 13, 2020 by Freee!!
typo

[Skalliwag]

57 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said:

I've seen a few claims from different groups that they have found a vaccine.

They could have a vaccine tomorrow.

Wether it kills you before the virus is the problem.

[tommy dee]

1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said:

I've seen a few claims from different groups that they have found a vaccine.

not bein an expert i spoke to one...  a vaccine could be found in a day or a year.  but then it has to be tested as with any vaccine there are side effects.  they have to be checked out and checked over a period of time  before being released.  last i was told 12 to 18 months is expected to be the period taken, from january

[Freee!!]

2 minutes ago, tommy dee said:

not bein an expert i spoke to one...  a vaccine could be found in a day or a year.  but then it has to be tested as with any vaccine there are side effects.  they have to be checked out and checked over a period of time  before being released.  last i was told 12 to 18 months is expected to be the period taken, from january

Once they have a vaccine, testing can probably be accelerated as it is a well understood virus type by now (SARS and MERS are also corona viruses). Even so, I wouldn't count on it being available within nine months from now.

[dcfc2007]

31 minutes ago, tommy dee said:

not bein an expert i spoke to one...  a vaccine could be found in a day or a year.  but then it has to be tested as with any vaccine there are side effects.  they have to be checked out and checked over a period of time  before being released.  last i was told 12 to 18 months is expected to be the period taken, from january

That's pretty much exactly what I've been reading. Apparently there are up to 20 possible vaccines awaiting testing. It's going to be a huge logistical operation to manufacture, distribute and administer 10's if not 100's of millions of vaccines. From the 'experts' I've been following they are expect Covid to peak over the next 3 months then it will decline over the summer months with another likely smaller spike in autumn/winter 20/21. This ain't going anywhere.

[Jambo]

1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said:

. From the 'experts' I've been following they are expect Covid to peak over the next 3 months then it will decline over the summer months with another likely smaller spike in autumn/winter 20/21. This ain't going anywhere.

Well that is what happens every year with Flu but I don't understand why they think coronavirus will follow the same way.

The world as a whole has no track record with this new virus and there is no accumulated natural immunity. I would have thought it will just keep on increasing until enough normally healthy people go down with it and recover augmented in several years time when they have distributed a  vaccine world wide.

[Thai Spice]

1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said:

they are expect Covid to peak over the next 3 months then it will decline over the summer months with another likely smaller spike in autumn/winter 20/21. This ain't going anywhere.

We'll all be dead by then....

Or another, better, stronger virus will have appeared and will vaporise this one.

Meanwhile there 40,000 deaths by fire arms in the US last year.  But th1t is normal and no reason to do something about it.

 

[fygjam]

Posted a week ago but in another thread.

For those who think they'll be getting vaccinated sometime soon...

Vaccine Development, Testing, and Regulation

Vaccine development is a long, complex process, often lasting 10-15 years and involving a combination of
public and private involvement.

The current system for developing, testing, and regulating vaccines developed during the 20 century as
the groups involved standardized their procedures and regulations.

Government Oversight

In the United States

At the end of the 19th century, several vaccines for humans had been developed. They were smallpox,
rabies, plague, cholera, and typhoid vaccines. However, no regulation of vaccine production existed.

On July 1, 1902, the U.S. Congress passed "An act to regulate the sale of viruses, serums, toxins, and
analogous products," later referred to as the Biologics Control Act (even though "biologics" appears
nowhere in the law). This was the first modern federal legislation to control the quality of drugs. This act
emerged in part as a response to 1901 contamination events in St. Louis and Camden involving smallpox
vaccine and diphtheria antitoxin.

The Act created the Hygienic Laboratory of the U.S. Public Health Service to oversee manufacture of
biological drugs. The Hygienic Laboratory eventually became the National Institutes of Health. The Act
established the government’s right to control the establishments where vaccines were made.

The United States Public Service Act of 1944 mandated that the federal government issue licenses for biological  
products, including vaccines. After a poliovirus vaccine accident in 1954 (known as the Cutter incident), the Division of Biologics Standards was formed to oversee vaccine safety and regulation. Later, the DBS was renamed the Bureau of Biologics, and it became part of the Food and Drug Administration. It is now know as the Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research.

Elsewhere

In the European Union, the European Medicines Agency supervises regulation of vaccines and other drugs. A committee of the World Health Organization makes recommendations for biological products used internationally. Many countries have adopted the WHO standards.

Stages of Vaccine Development and Testing

In the United States, vaccine development and testing follow a standard set of steps. The first stages are exploratory in nature. Regulation and oversight increase as the candidate vaccine makes its way through the process.

First Steps: Laboratory and Animal Studies

Exploratory Stage

This stage involves basic laboratory research and often lasts 2-4 years. Federally funded academic and governmental scientists identify natural or synthetic antigens that might help prevent or treat a disease. These antigens could include virus-like particles, weakened viruses or bacteria, weakened bacterial toxins, or other substances derived from pathogens.

Pre-Clinical Stage

Pre-clinical studies use tissue-culture or cell-culture systems and animal testing to assess the safety of the candidate vaccine and its immunogenicity, or ability to provoke an immune response. Animal subjects may include mice and monkeys. These studies give researchers an idea of the cellular responses they might expect in humans. They may also suggest a safe starting dose for the next phase of research as well as a safe method of administering the vaccine.

Researchers may adapt the candidate vaccine during the pre-clinical state to try to make it more effective. They may also do challenge studies with the animals, meaning that they vaccinate the animals and then try to infect them with the target pathogen.

Many candidate vaccines never progress beyond this stage because they fail to produce the desired immune response. The pre-clinical stages often lasts 1-2 years and usually involves researchers in private industry.

IND Application

A sponsor, usually a private company, submits an application for an Investigational New Drug (IND) to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration. The sponsor describes the manufacturing and testing processes, summarizes the laboratory reports, and describes the proposed study. An institutional review board, representing an institution where the clinical trial will be conducted, must approve the clinical protocol. The FDA has 30 days to approve the application.

Once the IND application has been approved, the vaccine is subject to three phases of testing.

Next Steps: Clinical Studies with Human Subjects

Phase I Vaccine Trials

This first attempt to assess the candidate vaccine in humans involves a small group of adults, usually between 20-80 subjects. If the vaccine is intended for children, researchers will first test adults, and then gradually step down the age of the test subjects until they reach their target. Phase I trials may be non-blinded (also known as open-label in that the researchers and perhaps subjects know whether a vaccine or placebo is used).

The goals of Phase 1 testing are to assess the safety of the candidate vaccine and to determine the type and extent of immune response that the vaccine provokes. In a small minority of Phase 1 vaccine trials, researchers may use the challenge model, attempting to infect participants with the pathogen after the experimental group has been vaccinated. The participants in these studies are carefully monitored and conditions are carefully controlled. In some cases, an attenuated, or modified, version of the pathogen is used for the challenge.

A promising Phase 1 trial will progress to the next stage.

Phase II Vaccine Trials

A larger group of several hundred individuals participates in Phase II testing. Some of the individuals may belong to groups at risk of acquiring the disease. These trials are randomized and well controlled, and include a placebo group.

The goals of Phase II testing are to study the candidate vaccine’s safety, immunogenicity, proposed doses, schedule of immunizations, and method of delivery.

Phase III Vaccine Trials

Successful Phase II candidate vaccines move on to larger trials, involving thousands to tens of thousands of people. These Phase III tests are randomized and double blind and involve the experimental vaccine being tested against a placebo (the placebo may be a saline solution, a vaccine for another disease, or some other substance).

One Phase III goal is to assess vaccine safety in a large group of people. Certain rare side effects might not surface in the smaller groups of subjects tested in earlier phases. For example, suppose that an adverse event related to a candidate vaccine might occur in 1 of every 10,000 people. To detect a significant difference for a low-frequency event, the trial would have to include 60,000 subjects, half of them in the control, or no vaccine, group (Plotkin SA et al. Vaccines, 5th ed. Philadelphia: Saunders, 2008). 

Vaccine efficacy is tested as well. These factors might include 1) Does the candidate vaccine prevent disease? 2) Does it prevent infection with the pathogen? 3) Does it lead to production of antibodies or other types of immune responses related to the pathogen?

Next Steps: Approval and Licensure

After a successful Phase III trial, the vaccine developer will submit a Biologics License Application to the FDA. Then the FDA will inspect the factory where the vaccine will be made and approve the labeling of the vaccine.

After licensure, the FDA will continue to monitor the production of the vaccine, including inspecting facilities and reviewing the manufacturer’s tests of lots of vaccines for potency, safety and purity. The FDA has the right to conduct its own testing of manufacturers’ vaccines.

https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/articles/vaccine-development-testing-and-regulation

 

 

Safety and Immunogenicity Study of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273) to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infection
Study Description

Brief Summary:

This is a phase I, open-label, dose ranging clinical trial in males and non-pregnant females, 18 to 55 years of age, inclusive, who are in good health and meet all eligibility criteria. This clinical trial is designed to assess the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 manufactured by ModernaTX, Inc. mRNA-1273 is a novel lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes for a full-length, prefusion stabilized spike (S) protein of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV). Enrollment will occur at one domestic site. Forty-five subjects will be enrolled into one of three cohorts and will receive an intramuscular (IM) injection of mRNA-1273 on Days 1 and 29 in the deltoid muscle. Subjects will be followed through 12 months post second vaccination (Day 394). The primary objective is to evaluate the safety and reactogenicity of a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273, given 28 days apart, across 3 dosages in healthy adults.

Detailed Description:

This is a phase I, open-label, dose ranging clinical trial in males and non-pregnant females, 18 to 55 years of age, inclusive, who are in good health and meet all eligibility criteria. This clinical trial is designed to assess the safety, reactogenicity and immunogenicity of mRNA-1273 manufactured by ModernaTX, Inc. mRNA-1273 is a novel lipid nanoparticle (LNP)-encapsulated mRNA-based vaccine that encodes for a full-length, prefusion stabilized spike (S) protein of 2019-novel coronavirus (nCoV). Enrollment will occur at one domestic site. Forty-five subjects will be enrolled into one of three cohorts (25 microgram [mcg], 100 mcg, 250 mcg). Subjects will receive an intramuscular (IM) injection (0.5 milliliter [mL]) of mRNA-1273 on Days 1 and 29 in the deltoid muscle and will be followed through 12 months post second vaccination (Day 394). Follow-up visits will occur 1, 2 and 4 weeks post each vaccination (Days 8, 15, 29, 36, 43, and 57), as well as 3, 6 and 12 months post second vaccination (Days 119, 209 and 394). The primary objective is to evaluate the safety and reactogenicity of a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273, given 28 days apart, across 3 dosages in healthy adults. The secondary objective is to evaluate the immunogenicity as measured by IgG ELISA to the 2019-nCoV S protein following a 2-dose vaccination schedule of mRNA-1273 at Day 57.

Study Design

• Study Type  :    Interventional  (Clinical Trial)
• Estimated Enrollment  :    45 participants
• Allocation:    Non-Randomized
• Intervention Model:    Sequential Assignment
• Masking:    None (Open Label)
• Primary Purpose:    Prevention
• Official Title:    Phase I, Open-Label, Dose-Ranging Study of the Safety and Immunogenicity of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273) in Healthy Adults
• Estimated Study Start Date  :    March 19, 2020
• Estimated Primary Completion Date  :    June 1, 2021
• Estimated Study Completion Date  :    June 1, 2021

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04283461?term=vaccine&cond=covid-19&draw=2&rank=2

The above is just for the Phase I stage. Note the estimated completion date.

 

[Evil Penevil]

From Bloomberg (I highlighted two sentences):

Will Warm Weather Curb Coronavirus? What the Experts Say
By Ari Altstedter and John Lauerman
March 12, 2020, 5:45 AM EDT

In temperate climates, the seasonal flu tends to flare in winter and recede as spring arrives. But what about the new coronavirus? Will the arrival of warmer weather keep it in check? U.S. President Donald Trump has weighed in, saying in a televised address that April sunshine could chase away the scourge. Health experts say it’s more complicated than that. Just because outbreaks of influenza wilt with seasonal changes doesn’t mean a different respiratory virus will behave in the same way.

1. Is climate a factor?
It’s too early to know. The new coronavirus, which causes a respiratory disease called Covid-19, has infected more than 120,000 people worldwide, but it only appeared in central China at the end of last year. Officials of the World Health Organization said March 5 there’s no reason to believe temperature will play a role in the outbreak but that the subject was worth investigating.

2. Is there evidence either way?
A few researchers have prepared analyses on the subject, but none have been yet been published in scholarly journals, which require papers to be vetted by experts working in the same field. A group of U.S. and Iranian researchers concluded that the places Covid-19 infection has mostly taken hold so far -- such as Wuhan in central China, Milan and Seattle -- share similarly mild humidity and temperatures ranging from about 5 to 11 degrees Celsius (41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter. In hotter, more humid places like Bangkok the virus has mainly been seen in people who brought it in from outside, and has not spread quickly through the community, the researchers said. However, they said predictions should be regarded with “extreme caution.”

3. Why does flu vary with the seasons?
In temperate regions, flu is largely a winter phenomenon, whereas in tropical and subtropical areas it tends to occur during the rainy season, if there is one, or year-round if not. There are various theories why. There’s evidence that both cold, dry air and especially humid conditions are favorable for flu’s transmission. Just as people tend to crowd indoors in cold and rainy weather, boosting contagion, they spend more time outside in fine weather, reducing contamination. There’s the possibility that summer lifts people’s melatonin and vitamin D levels, which can boost their immune systems, and that viruses lose their punch in warmer weather because their fatty coating degrades.

4. What about SARS?
The 2002-2003 epidemic of severe acute respiratory syndrome did indeed ease over the summer. But that may have had little to do with the weather. “SARS did not die of natural causes,” Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch writes. “It was killed by extremely intense public health interventions in mainland Chinese cities, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Thailand, Canada and elsewhere.” Among other things, authorities isolated cases and quarantined their contacts. The strategy worked, Lipsitch says, because the most infectious SARS patients showed obvious symptoms. While China has taken similar steps with the new coronavirus, its long incubation period and many mild cases have complicated containment efforts.

5. Where does flu go in summer?
The easing of flu outbreaks doesn’t mean the virus dies out in warmer temperatures. It just doesn’t transmit as easily. So, even if the coronavirus does subside in the summer, it could return in the fall.

EP note:   Keep in mind that many of the places where foreign tourists in Thailand spend a lot of their time- enclosed  bars, restaurants, hotel rooms, shops, etc.  are air conditioned- which would negate the effects of hotter outdoor temperatures and bright sun.

[fygjam]

8 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

2. Is there evidence either way?
A few researchers have prepared analyses on the subject, but none have been yet been published in scholarly journals, which require papers to be vetted by experts working in the same field. A group of U.S. and Iranian researchers concluded that the places Covid-19 infection has mostly taken hold so far -- such as Wuhan in central China, Milan and Seattle -- share similarly mild humidity and temperatures ranging from about 5 to 11 degrees Celsius (41 to 52 degrees Fahrenheit) in winter. In hotter, more humid places like Bangkok the virus has mainly been seen in people who brought it in from outside, and has not spread quickly through the community, the researchers said. However, they said predictions should be regarded with “extreme caution.”

The MERS-CoV is a coronavirus.

Results

A total of 712 MERS-CoV cases were included in the analysis (mean age 54.2 ± 9.9 years), and more
than half (404) (56.1%) MERS-CoV cases were diagnosed during a five-month period from April to
August. The highest peak timing positioned in August 2015, followed by April 2014, June 2017,
March 2015, and June 2016. High temperatures (IRR = 1.054, 95% CI: 1.043–1.065) and a high
ultraviolet index (IRR = 1.401, 95% CI: 1.331–1.475) were correlated with a higher incidence of
MERS-CoV cases. However, low relative humidity (IRR = 0.956, 95% CI: 0.948–0.964) and low
wind speed (IRR = 0.945, 95% CI: 0.912–0.979) were correlated with a lower incidence of MERS-CoV cases.

Conclusion

The novel coronavirus, MERS-CoV, is influenced by climate conditions with increasing incidence
between April and August. High temperature, high ultraviolet index, low wind speed, and low
relative humidity are contributors to increased MERS-CoV cases. The climate factors must be
evaluated in hospitals and community settings and integrated into guidelines to serve as source of
control measures to prevent and eliminate the risk of infection.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S187603411930351X

They do appear to contradict themselves though. In the Results they state that low RH resulted on a lower incidence of MERS cases while in the Conclusions they state that a low RH is a contributory factor.

But high temperatures and plenty of sunlight are BAD. (Sunlight influences Vitamin D levels).

 

 

[fygjam]

 

I think the title should be SARS-CoV-2 not Covid-19, that's the actual disease of an infected person not the virus.

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by fygjam

[fygjam]

Today's videos are about "flattening the curve".

 

 

[Ivan the terrible]

3 hours ago, fygjam said:

 

I think the title should be SARS-CoV-2 not Covid-19, that's the actual disease of an infected person not the virus.

 

it is what it is ....we have no say...but it is a reasonable yet futile  interjection...it doesnt change anything

HOWEVER ...were it Gender predisposed (which it is 60/40 m/f) certain idiotic lefties ...no names...yet...will blame harvey weinstein or climate change as a cause for this

This is an antiandrogenous virus ...I object and claim my payout!!!

[Thai Spice]

Out all the Thailand vloggers, and the fashionistas promoting handbags and make up

Place for the new world of overnight born scientists....

FFS, like if a real scientific would post videos on Youtube ....😂😂😂🙈🙈🙈🙄🙄🙄

Next thing we have the Trumpeteer make one on the subject ?

Honestly the Brexit story was much more captivating.

 

 

[fygjam]

18 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

Out all the Thailand vloggers, and the fashionistas promoting handbags and make up

Place for the new world of overnight born scientists....

FFS, like if a real scientific would post videos on Youtube ....😂😂😂🙈🙈🙈🙄🙄🙄

Next thing we have the Trumpeteer make one on the subject ?

Honestly the Brexit story was much more captivating.

 

 

The videos I have posted have been made by qualified medical practitioners (doctors).

FFS if you don't like them, DON"T OPEN THE THREAD.

Fuk, you're complaining about something you did voluntarily yourself.

Go back to the Brexit thread if you feel more love there!

 

 

 

[Evil Penevil]

15 hours ago, fygjam said:

The MERS-CoV is a coronavirus.

MERS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are both classified as coronaviruses,  but they cause very different diseases.  MERS emerged in the Middle East in 2012, with 80% of the 2,499 cases and 75% of the 861 deaths occurring in Saudi Arabia. It's not surprising MERS-CoV thrives in hot temperatures.  MERS cases have been found in 27 countries, but never took hold outside the Middle East.  Only two U.S. citizens caught MERS and both had been health care professionals working in Saudi Arabia.  Almost all people not from Middle Eastern countries were infected while in the Middle East.

By contrast, there have been over 150,000 cases of COVID-19  and nearly 5,800 deaths all across the globe.  Eighty six cases have been reported in Saudi Arabia and no deaths.

Evil

 

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Evil Penevil

[Ivan the terrible]

this is a great article

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

[Thai Spice]

2 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

this is a great article

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or-people-will-die-f4d3d9cd99ca

I stopped reading after this :

"The coronavirus is coming to you. 
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways. 
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies. 
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today."

This is stirring paranioa at its best.... 

Anybody who start a speech / presentation like that is an idiot. Or a P.R. guy gone wild.

Don't forget to write your will ! The end is near. 

But I cant understand how it could happen to the US with the greatest genius of all times at the helm, and moreover send by God !  

 

 

[Ivan the terrible]

35 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

I stopped reading after this :

"The coronavirus is coming to you. 
It’s coming at an exponential speed: gradually, and then suddenly.
It’s a matter of days. Maybe a week or two.
When it does, your healthcare system will be overwhelmed.
Your fellow citizens will be treated in the hallways. 
Exhausted healthcare workers will break down. Some will die.
They will have to decide which patient gets the oxygen and which one dies. 
The only way to prevent this is social distancing today. Not tomorrow. Today."

This is stirring paranioa at its best.... 

Anybody who start a speech / presentation like that is an idiot. Or a P.R. guy gone wild.

Don't forget to write your will ! The end is near. 

But I cant understand how it could happen to the US with the greatest genius of all times at the helm, and moreover send by God !  

 

 

its not fear mongering...it is pretty much the facts as we know them at this stage.

You can choose to bury your head in the sand but you are a culprit in articulating misinformation 

These issues are happening NOW in Italy ...which of two  50 year old gets the 1 remaining ventilator...if you are obese...you lose

Edited March 15, 2020 by Ivan the terrible

[forcebwithu]

16 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said:

its not fear mongering...it is pretty much the facts as we know them at this stage.

You can choose to bury your head in the sand but you are a culprit in articulating misinformation 

These issues are happening NOW in Italy ...which of two  50 year old gets the 1 remaing ventilator...if you are obese...you lose

I agree. It's a very good, comprehensive, factual look at what we know at this time, and how to apply that knowledge to contain the spread of the virus, and mitigate the number of deaths. The best article I've read to date on the virus.

@Thai Spice, suggest reading the rest of the article before expressing an opinion on its contents.

[fygjam]

3 hours ago, forcebwithu said:

@Thai Spice, suggest reading the rest of the article before expressing an opinion on its contents.

Nah. He'd rather information be restricted to pictures of cats or dogs wearing masks.

 

[Mrmango]

3 hours ago, Ivan the terrible said:

its not fear mongering...it is pretty much the facts as we know them at this stage.

You can choose to bury your head in the sand but you are a culprit in articulating misinformation 

These issues are happening NOW in Italy ...which of two  50 year old gets the 1 remaining ventilator...if you are obese...you lose

He was just doing his usual trolling and taking a shot at Trump, which he never passes up.

[Thai Spice]

1 hour ago, fygjam said:

Nah. He'd rather information be restricted to pictures of cats or dogs wearing masks.

 

 

1 hour ago, Mrmango said:

He was just doing his usual trolling and taking a shot at Trump, which he never passes up.

Why can you not accept that some.people may (and are allowed) to think different, and to express it.

Why is it that nobody (or very few) simply answer my points with well constructed arguments of their own, and not just some Youtube videos ?

Debating is not about saying "I am right and anybody who disagrees is an idiot" which I read or even see on TV to often....

And concerning my sense of humor, well it is here to stay till my last day on earth.....