COVID 19 Related to THAILAND Posts

[fygjam]

36 minutes ago, KWA said:

 

 

Some different means of measuremeant there I suspect.  How many of these died with Covid rather than of Covid?  It was no secret earlier in the year that hospitals were getting funding based on the numbers they reported so it benefited them to manipulate the figures.

Well of course there is.

lazarus was quoting US figures.

I quoted global figures (based on data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Really, globally hospitals were getting funding based on cases. I think you need to prove that or qualify your statement showing which countries had the incentive to manipulate the figures. PS. Australia didn't!

 

Of course proving that figures had been manipulated would be even better.

 

 

[lazarus]

1 hour ago, KWA said:

Some different means of measuremeant there I suspect.  How many of these died with Covid rather than of Covid?  It was no secret earlier in the year that hospitals were getting funding based on the numbers they reported so it benefited them to manipulate the figures.

The US figure I quoted is from this website. They aggregate numbers from various sources. It is up to date as of today:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/

I don't know about manipulating figures upwards. Seems most hospitals in the US were scrambling right off the bat, then had a short break, then another wave, and now are completely overwhelmed. Much of the US is nearing a triage scenario where some critically ill patients will not be treated due to lack of space.

If anything the US gov'mint (Trump's White House)  has manipulated case figures downward to support their earlier false "we've rounded the corner" claims. There was a big fuss awhile back when they took control of the data aggregation from the CDC.

All I really care about is that me and my family are being extremely diligent as we're at risk due to pre-exiting conditions. That said, I live my life with very few restrictions or inconveniences other than wearing a mask when close to others and not socializing. When our time comes we'll be vaccinated (assuming there are no negative issues beforehand).

Edited December 21, 2020 by lazarus

[Thai Spice]

41 minutes ago, KWA said:

 

 

Some different means of measuremeant there I suspect.  How many of these died with Covid rather than of Covid?  It was no secret earlier in the year that hospitals were getting funding based on the numbers they reported so it benefited them to manipulate the figures.

As I mentioned several times the ONLY reliable indicator is the global excess deaths. i.e. the difference in number of deaths in 2020 compared with the previous years.

Those numbers (reliable) are easily found for most European countries, but I couldn't find them for the US.

 

 

[lazarus]

12 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

As I mentioned several times the ONLY reliable indicator is the global excess deaths. i.e. the difference in number of deaths in 2020 compared with the previous years.

Those numbers (reliable) are easily found for most European countries, but I couldn't find them for the US.

 

 

Have a look at this. Where I live many more people die of opioid overdose than Covid.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

All-Cause Excess Mortality and COVID-19–Related Mortality Among US Adults Aged 25-44 Years, March-July 2020

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in all-cause mortality among US adults aged 25 to 44 years from March through July of 2020. In 3 HHS regions, COVID-19 deaths were similar to or exceeded unintentional opioid overdoses that occurred during several corresponding months of 2018.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population.

This study has limitations. The provisional data used represent lower-bound estimates due to reporting lags, necessitating future updates. Additionally, although COVID-19 deaths exceeded unintentional opioid deaths in 2018 in some areas, it is possible that simultaneous increases in opioid deaths may have occurred during the pandemic period, making it less clear which of these 2 diseases represents the current leading cause of death among younger adults in areas experiencing COVID-19 surges.

Edited December 21, 2020 by lazarus

[lazarus]

Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm

 

 

[fygjam]

4 minutes ago, lazarus said:

Have a look at this. Where I live many more people die of opioid overdose than Covid.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

All-Cause Excess Mortality and COVID-19–Related Mortality Among US Adults Aged 25-44 Years, March-July 2020

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in all-cause mortality among US adults aged 25 to 44 years from March through July of 2020. In 3 HHS regions, COVID-19 deaths were similar to or exceeded unintentional opioid overdoses that occurred during several corresponding months of 2018.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population.

This study has limitations. The provisional data used represent lower-bound estimates due to reporting lags, necessitating future updates. Additionally, although COVID-19 deaths exceeded unintentional opioid deaths in 2018 in some areas, it is possible that simultaneous increases in opioid deaths may have occurred during the pandemic period, making it less clear which of these 2 diseases represents the current leading cause of death among younger adults in areas experiencing COVID-19 surges.

Ya beat me to it.

Extract from an op-ed piece base on the research of the JAMA paper. One of the authors of the op-ed is Rochelle P. Walensky, Biden's pick to head the CDC. Could it mean you get some accurate figures.

 

In research published on Wednesday in the Journal of the
American Medical Association, we found that among U.S. adults
ages 25 to 44, from March through the end of July, there
were almost 12,000 more deaths than were expected based on
historical norms.

In fact, July appears to have been the deadliest month among
this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years,
an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July.
This year that number swelled to over 16,000.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/opinion/covid-deaths-young-adults.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

 

Of course, this is for 25-44 year olds who don't even catch Covid-19 let alone die from it.

 

[fygjam]

28 minutes ago, lazarus said:

If anything the US gov'mint (Trump's White House)  has manipulated case figures downward to support their earlier false "we've rounded the corner" claims.

If you haven't already seen it.

‘Like a Hand Grasping’: Trump Appointees Describe the Crushing of the C.D.C.

Kyle McGowan, a former chief of staff at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and his deputy, Amanda Campbell, go public on the Trump administration’s manipulation of the agency.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/16/us/politics/cdc-trump.html

 

[KWA]

13 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Well of course there is.

lazarus was quoting US figures.

I quoted global figures (based on data from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/)

Really, globally hospitals were getting funding based on cases. I think you need to prove that or qualify your statement showing which countries had the incentive to manipulate the figures. PS. Australia didn't!

 

Of course proving that figures had been manipulated would be even better.

You mentioned two global figures.  0.148% and 1.3%.  Compared to lazarus' figure of 1.79% for the USA the 1.3% figure is believable, but the lower one is an order of magnitude different, so saying there were some different means of measurement was a bit tongue in cheek.  Clearly the data has been manipulated, whether for financial benefit or not.

Any health provider in any country where additional funds were made available will have used figures to maximise their chance of getting the funding.  If the Australian government didn't make any offer I would be surprised, and if any health provider didn't do as described then they did their patients and staff a disservice.

[lazarus]

2 minutes ago, KWA said:

You mentioned two global figures.  0.148% and 1.3%.  Compared to lazarus' figure of 1.79% for the USA the 1.3% figure is believable, but the lower one is an order of magnitude different, so saying there were some different means of measurement was a bit tongue in cheek.  Clearly the data has been manipulated, whether for financial benefit or not.

Any health provider in any country where additional funds were made available will have used figures to maximise their chance of getting the funding.  If the Australian government didn't make any offer I would be surprised, and if any health provider didn't do as described then they did their patients and staff a disservice.

US the hospitals did not have to manipulate data to receive money. The gov'mint just gave it to them regardless.

The biggest for-profit hospital chain in the US just posted a massive profit, shrugging off the coronavirus

https://www.businessinsider.com/biggest-for-profit-us-hospital-chain-posts-massive-profit-pandemic-2020-7

• HCA Healthcare, the largest for-profit hospital chain in the US, reported a 38% increase in second-quarter pro
• The hospital chain still managed to make money despite a pause in elective procedures and declining patient visits during the pandemic.
• Taxpayers have directly subsidized a large amount of the hospital's profits in coronavirus bailout funds.
• The report came out on the same day that the health care industry is requesting an additional $100 billion in taxpayer bailouts from Congress.

HCA Healthcare, the largest for-profit hospital chain in the country, smashed Wall Street's second-quarter profit expectations even though the coronavirus outbreak forced hospitals to halt elective procedures for several weeks during the quarter.

The bottom line: Medical claims and revenues noticeably declined among hospitals during the height of the pandemic, which has benefited health insurers. But that didn't prevent hospitals from making a lot of money, a large chunk of which was directly subsidized by taxpayers in the form of bailout funds.

By the numbers: HCA's second-quarter profit was roughly $1.1 billion, a 38% increase from the same period a year ago.

[fygjam]

On 12/19/2020 at 5:11 PM, fygjam said:

Yep, and globally about 1.3%. (deaths/cases. I think one can assume that a case means a positive test).

I'm not going to enter into who has the faulty slide rule debate, some people don't take kindly to having their errors being pointed out.

 

 

On 12/19/2020 at 5:40 PM, fygjam said:

Globally

total deaths 1,682,552

divided by total tests 1,139,786,463

is approximately 0.148%

Data source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

 

 

5 minutes ago, KWA said:

You mentioned two global figures.  0.148% and 1.3%.  Compared to lazarus' figure of 1.79% for the USA the 1.3% figure is believable, but the lower one is an order of magnitude different, so saying there were some different means of measurement was a bit tongue in cheek.  Clearly the data has been manipulated, whether for financial benefit or not.

Any health provider in any country where additional funds were made available will have used figures to maximise their chance of getting the funding.  If the Australian government didn't make any offer I would be surprised, and if any health provider didn't do as described then they did their patients and staff a disservice.

You do understand the difference between deaths/case and deaths/test?????

 

 

[fygjam]

12 minutes ago, KWA said:

Any health provider in any country where additional funds were made available will have used figures to maximise their chance of getting the funding.  If the Australian government didn't make any offer I would be surprised, and if any health provider didn't do as described then they did their patients and staff a disservice.

The Australian and state governments are the health providers in the public health system (where any Covid-19 patients ended up). Why would they inflate the figures to themselves?

 

[KWA]

6 minutes ago, fygjam said:

You do understand the difference between deaths/case and deaths/test?????

Yes thanks.  Which number should we be using and for what purpose?

[KWA]

7 minutes ago, fygjam said:

The Australian and state governments are the health providers in the public health system (where any Covid-19 patients ended up). Why would they inflate the figures to themselves?

So no private medical facilities in Australia were used in the fight against Covid?  Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

Even public facilities would be competing against each other so it's naive to think they wouldn't all be out for the best deal for themself.

[fygjam]

2 minutes ago, KWA said:

So no private medical facilities in Australia were used in the fight against Covid?  Pull the other one, it's got bells on.

Even public facilities would be competing against each other so it's naive to think they wouldn't all be out for the best deal for themself.

Please provide evidence for your claims of STFU.

 

[fygjam]

12 minutes ago, KWA said:

Yes thanks.  Which number should we be using and for what purpose?

Feel free to use them anyway you like, they're not copyright as far as I'm concerned.

However they were initially posted in response to a poster who posted

Quote

Now again, testing positive doesn't mean anything. The death rate amongst positives is something like 0,02 or 0,03 %

Some people are intent on minimizing the effects of Covid-19.

 

 

[KWA]

3 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Please provide evidence for your claims of STFU.

You could have found these and similar articles for yourself without throwing your toys out.

https://theconversation.com/federal-government-gets-private-hospital-resources-for-covid-19-fight-in-exchange-for-funding-support-135207

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/mar/31/federal-government-pay-half-integrate-private-public-hospitals-covid-19-response

 

As regards hospitals/states competing against each other for a bigger slice of the government pie, it's not likely to be advertised as they'd rightly be berated.  As above though, it'd be naive in the extreme to think otherwise.

[KWA]

2 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Some people are intent on minimizing the effects of Covid-19.

I think most want honesty and accuracy.  Adding the numbers of those dying with Covid to those dying of Covid provides neither.

[Esco]

Early in this pandemic pretty much anyone who died was said to have died from covid, even if they'd been close to their demise for months already from old age or other illnesses, which means they actually died with covid of course. 

All these deaths are still included in the total number so it's impossible to accurately determine the actual mortality rate based on current data no matter which source you use. 

[Mrmango]

1 hour ago, Thai Spice said:

As I mentioned several times the ONLY reliable indicator is the global excess deaths. i.e. the difference in number of deaths in 2020 compared with the previous years.

Those numbers (reliable) are easily found for most European countries, but I couldn't find them for the US.

I am not sure how reliable that number is. The world pretty much had a lockdown, so auto accidents would drop, due to the drastic decline of automobile usage, while other deaths maybe increasing due to the lack of treatment. 

[fygjam]

32 minutes ago, KWA said:

I think most want honesty and accuracy.  Adding the numbers of those dying with Covid to those dying of Covid provides neither.

 

13 minutes ago, Esco said:

Early in this pandemic pretty much anyone who died was said to have died from covid, even if they'd been close to their demise for months already from old age or other illnesses, which means they actually died with covid of course. 

All these deaths are still included in the total number so it's impossible to accurately determine the actual mortality rate based on current data no matter which source you use. 

As I've said before.

Go find someone with some of the conditions listed as comorbidities in a Covid-19 patient.

Smash their skull in with a hammer.

Let me know if you're found "not guilty" because they died with their skull smashed in not because their skull was smashed in.

 

[Esco]

4 minutes ago, fygjam said:

 

As I've said before.

Go find someone with some of the conditions listed as comorbidities in a Covid-19 patient.

Smash their skull in with a hammer.

Let me know if you're found "not guilty" because they died with their skull smashed in not because their skull was smashed in.

 

Your analogy makes no sense whatsoever to me.  

I'm also not looking for an endless debate so happy to agree to disagree. 

[Esco]

6 minutes ago, Mrmango said:

I am not sure how reliable that number is. The world pretty much had a lockdown, so auto accidents would drop, due to the drastic decline of automobile usage, while other deaths maybe increasing due to the lack of treatment. 

Fair point. 

Suicides are on the up as well for example. 

[Thai Spice]

1 hour ago, lazarus said:

Have a look at this. Where I live many more people die of opioid overdose than Covid.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2774445

All-Cause Excess Mortality and COVID-19–Related Mortality Among US Adults Aged 25-44 Years, March-July 2020

Discussion

The COVID-19 pandemic was associated with increases in all-cause mortality among US adults aged 25 to 44 years from March through July of 2020. In 3 HHS regions, COVID-19 deaths were similar to or exceeded unintentional opioid overdoses that occurred during several corresponding months of 2018.

Only 38% of all-cause excess deaths in adults aged 25 to 44 years recorded during the pandemic were attributed directly to COVID-19. Although the remaining excess deaths are unexplained, inadequate testing in this otherwise healthy demographic likely contributed. These results suggest that COVID-19–related mortality may have been underdetected in this population.

This study has limitations. The provisional data used represent lower-bound estimates due to reporting lags, necessitating future updates. Additionally, although COVID-19 deaths exceeded unintentional opioid deaths in 2018 in some areas, it is possible that simultaneous increases in opioid deaths may have occurred during the pandemic period, making it less clear which of these 2 diseases represents the current leading cause of death among younger adults in areas experiencing COVID-19 surges.

That's not the kind of "info" I am looking for. 

I want official government data like the stats I posted from the UK ONS or France INSEE.

In every country with a system, a death is declared at the city hall or municipality, who then transmit to a central organization. same as births, weddings, divorces, etc .....

What you're showing is far from that. Read your link .....

 

Methods

To determine excess mortality (the gap between observed and expected deaths), projected monthly expected deaths for 2020 were calculated by applying autoregressive integrated moving averages to US population and mortality counts (2015-2019).³ We examined 2020 population and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages for each of the 10 US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) regions, which comprise the entire US and are the smallest subdivisions for which 2020 age-stratified COVID-19 mortality data are currently available from the National Center for Health Statistics. Population covariates were used to calculate 95% CIs for expected deaths.

Observed all-cause mortality and COVID-19 mortality (coded as either “underlying cause” or “multiple cause” of death) for March 1, 2020, to July 31, 2020, were obtained from provisional National Center for Health Statistics data (released October 28, 2020).⁴ Unintentional opioid overdose death counts (International Classification of Diseases, Version 10 codes X41-X44, Y11-Y15, and T40.0-6) for the corresponding period of 2018 (the most recently available data) were assembled for each HHS region.³ Incident rates per 100 000 person-months with 95% CIs were calculated for COVID-19 and unintentional opioid deaths using SAS, version 9.4. Statistical significance was defined as a 95% CI that excluded the null value.

This study used publicly available data and was not subject to institutional review approval.

==> Zero value for me.

 

[Thai Spice]

14 minutes ago, Mrmango said:

I am not sure how reliable that number is. The world pretty much had a lockdown, so auto accidents would drop, due to the drastic decline of automobile usage, while other deaths maybe increasing due to the lack of treatment. 

Fully agreed, but if the Covid numbers are as massive as said, the things you mentioned will have a very minor impact.

Now if you read the government stats I posted earlier, you will notice that indeed for the age range 0-24 and25-49 the number of deaths has gone down compared to the same periods in 2019. Which corresponds exactly to the cases you mention. Lower traffic accident, work accidents, crime...

 

 

 

[fygjam]

22 minutes ago, Thai Spice said:

That's not the kind of "info" I am looking for. 

I want official government data like the stats I posted from the UK ONS or France INSEE.

In every country with a system, a death is declared at the city hall or municipality, who then transmit to a central organization. same as births, weddings, divorces, etc .....

What you're showing is far from that. Read your link .....

 

 

This study used publicly available data and was not subject to institutional review approval.

==> Zero value for me.

 

Read the paper including the references.

The "publicly available data" came from the National Center for Health Statistics (I wonder what they do), which is part of the CDC.

Where would you like the data to come from?