lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, Thai Spice said: They did a test in a school here in Bali early this month. <snip> Now again, testing positive doesn't mean anything. The death rate amongst positives is something like 0,02 or 0,03 % Covid-19 is known to be extremely contagious. Testing positive does mean that you can pass the virus on to someone else who might fall into that 0.02 - 0.03% category. If that is your grandmother, mother, or even you...it might not seem so insignificant. The more it spreads, the more people that get it & the more people that die. In Los Angeles, California right now two people are dying from Covid every hour. Almost 150,00 people tested positive in California (that they know of) in the past three days. At 0.02% that means 3000 people will likely die . . . That might not mean much to someone living on a small isolated island somewhere or out in a rural jungle, but it does give a person pause if they live where it is actually happening. Edited December 19, 2020 by lazarus 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 19 minutes ago, lazarus said: Almost 150,00 people tested positive in California (that they know of) in the past three days. At 0.02% that means 3000 people will likely die . . . That might not mean much to someone living on a small isolated island somewhere or out in a rural jungle, but it does give a person pause if they live where it is actually happening. I guess you mean 150,000 ? Well, grab your basic math schoolbook and redo the calculation ........ 150,000 x 0.02% = 30 ! So, indeed very minimal. Now now grab your schoolbook again, and calculate the probability in % 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) 8 minutes ago, Thai Spice said: I guess you mean 150,000 ? Well, grab your basic math schoolbook and redo the calculation ........ 150,000 x 0.02% = 30 ! So, indeed very minimal. Now now grab your schoolbook again, and calculate the probability in % hey...seems I need a new abacus! I still wouldn't want to be one of the 30! haha... Yet...the confirmed case death rate in the US is 1.79% So..I may be closer to the correct number than you! scoreboard: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/ Data Sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, JHU, RCP Edited December 19, 2020 by lazarus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Thai Spice said: Ok, how many Thais are tested daily, nationwide ? Compare that number now with say UK, France or Germany ? How does that relate to me refuting your point that most people testing positive are farangs? 🙂 There are just as many and probably more Thais testing positive as foreigners upon arrival at swampy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 18 minutes ago, lazarus said: hey...seems I need a new abacus! I still wouldn't want to be one of the 30! haha... Yet...the confirmed case death rate in the US is 1.79% So..I may be closer to the correct number than you! scoreboard: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/ Data Sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, JHU, RCP Yep, and globally about 1.3%. (deaths/cases. I think one can assume that a case means a positive test). I'm not going to enter into who has the faulty slide rule debate, some people don't take kindly to having their errors being pointed out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Globally total deaths 1,682,552 divided by total tests 1,139,786,463 is approximately 0.148% Data source https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, lazarus said: hey...seems I need a new abacus! I still wouldn't want to be one of the 30! haha... Yet...the confirmed case death rate in the US is 1.79% So..I may be closer to the correct number than you! scoreboard: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/coronavirus/ Data Sources: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY, JHU, RCP NYT number also indicate 1,79 % To be digged in.... But not on my phone ! https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html Edited December 19, 2020 by Thai Spice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 No more number crunching for me...😷 Just checked the BKK Post... Twelve local infections among 34 new cases Thai and Myanmar patients all linked to Samut Sakhon shrimp vendor https://www.bangkokpost.com/thailand/general/2038039/twelve-local-infections-among-34-new-cases Twelve local infections in Samut Sakhon are among 34 new coronavirus cases reported on Saturday, raising the nationwide total to 4,331, with no new deaths. Eight of the 12 cases — the biggest one-day rise in seven months — have been linked to a 67-year-old shrimp wholesaler who was diagnosed earlier this week. The sources of four more local infections in the province are still being investigated. Three of the eight cases linked to the shrimp wholesaler were asymptomatic close relatives — her bedridden mother, 93; her sister, 73; and her sister-in law, 57, according to the Centre for Covid-19 Situation Administration (CCSA)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krapow Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) Hard to keep up with all these rules and rule changes, so i'm not paying that much attention, though will do closer to the time, as we're hoping to go in July, but the forced quarantine will be a deal breaker as i can only get 3 or 4 weeks off at a time. Good to see a few Board Members going through the process though, Cap and Coffee Club near a reunion? Edited December 19, 2020 by Krapow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Painter Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Krapow said: Hard to keep up with all these rules and rule changes, so i'm not paying that much attention, though will do closer to the time, as we're hoping to go in July, but the forced quarantine will be a deal breaker as i can only get 3 or 4 weeks off at a time. Good to see a few Board Members going through the process though, Cap and Coffee Club near a reunion? I'm sure I read somewhere that covid tests in quarantine were going to increased until mid January from 2 (days 5ish and 11ish) to 3 (day1, 10ish and 13ish), with a view to studying the results to see if the duration of quarantine could be reduced. I might have dreamt it though. As for Coffee and Cap Club.... probably only the solo division will be meeting for a few months! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smiler Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Breaking news https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/12/19/thailand-reports-record-breaking-500-new-virus-cases/?fbclid=IwAR1GcCz8cNGw8PtMvDXjB-clNhVp8PUMkF1HnN35Swurw2EPIOCBazV0aSA Kin ell, I wasn't expecting this. Caveat: Wasn't so long ago a drug bust of "tons" of ketamine was announced, then reduced to less than a couple of grams..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esco Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Apparently 548 more positive cases appeared from Samut Sakhon. That escalated quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 548 cases from just one person? Doubt it, clearly more people came forward at first than the govt let in, I see they are blaming migrants despite the first 3 reported infections all being Thai nationals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said: 548 cases from just one person? Doubt it, clearly more people came forward at first than the govt let in, I see they are blaming migrants despite the first 3 reported infections all being Thai nationals. Yeah...hard to believe. But... Covid spreads quickly...article is from December 12, 2020. Boston Superspreader Conference Led To Over 300,000 Covid-19 Coronavirus Cases https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/12/12/boston-biogen-conference-led-to-over-300000-covid-19-coronavirus-cases/?sh=4060507d6179 "...Speed, coordination, and open communication across state lines are essential in stopping any outbreak, especially when the pathogen is as contagious as the SARS-CoV2. Otherwise, a hundred cases can soon become several hundred. Or several thousand. Or even over 300,000..." . . . This is a news report from back in March when the event occurred: Five of the people with presumptive cases of coronavirus attended a recent meeting of the biotech firm Biogen that was held for company employees at the Marriott Long Wharf Hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, lazarus said: Yeah...hard to believe. But... Covid spreads quickly...article is from December 12, 2020. Boston Superspreader Conference Led To Over 300,000 Covid-19 Coronavirus Cases https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2020/12/12/boston-biogen-conference-led-to-over-300000-covid-19-coronavirus-cases/?sh=4060507d6179 "...Speed, coordination, and open communication across state lines are essential in stopping any outbreak, especially when the pathogen is as contagious as the SARS-CoV2. Otherwise, a hundred cases can soon become several hundred. Or several thousand. Or even over 300,000..." . . . This is a news report from back in March when the event occurred: Five of the people with presumptive cases of coronavirus attended a recent meeting of the biotech firm Biogen that was held for company employees at the Marriott Long Wharf Hotel. 538 cases did not come from one person, bearing in mind they don't know where that one person contracted the virus, although it looks like migrants will be getting the blame for that. It's a worrying development, but no need for a hysterical overreaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 (edited) 11 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said: 538 cases did not come from one person, bearing in mind they don't know where that one person contracted the virus, although it looks like migrants will be getting the blame for that. It's a worrying development, but no need for a hysterical overreaction. It really doesn't matter now that over 500+ people have tested positive. The infection is far "out of the bag" as they say... From the Khaosod article linked above: "People who have traveled to Samut Sakhon since Dec. 1 are also advised to isolate themselves and monitor for any symptoms." How do you think that will work out? And, if even a minuscule number of those folks are positive... Well...it doesn't take a doctor to tell you what might happen. Let's hope not. I can guarantee you one thing, though...every Thai person on the planet who owns a mobile phone will know about this by the end of today (if they don't know already). How do you think they will react? Edited December 19, 2020 by lazarus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 34 minutes ago, lazarus said: It really doesn't matter now that over 500+ people have tested positive. The infection is far "out of the bag" as they say... From the Khaosod article linked above: "People who have traveled to Samut Sakhon since Dec. 1 are also advised to isolate themselves and monitor for any symptoms." How do you think that will work out? And, if even a minuscule number of those folks are positive... Well...it doesn't take a doctor to tell you what might happen. Let's hope not. I can guarantee you one thing, though...every Thai person on the planet who owns a mobile phone will know about this by the end of today (if they don't know already). How do you think they will react? Out of the bag? Behave FFS, Thailand has a population of over 60 million, 500+ cases in a population of over 60 million is nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, Smiler said: Breaking news https://www.khaosodenglish.com/news/crimecourtscalamity/2020/12/19/thailand-reports-record-breaking-500-new-virus-cases/?fbclid=IwAR1GcCz8cNGw8PtMvDXjB-clNhVp8PUMkF1HnN35Swurw2EPIOCBazV0aSA Kin ell, I wasn't expecting this. Caveat: Wasn't so long ago a drug bust of "tons" of ketamine was announced, then reduced to less than a couple of grams..... Well, well, well....as I said, with a bit more testing they will discover more cases .... Of course, as usual blame a good part of the responsabilities on : "A majority of the new cases are migrant workers, according to Opas." Anyway, Thai government numbers....to be taken with a large pinch of salt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said: Out of the bag? Behave FFS, Thailand has a population of over 60 million, 500+ cases in a population of over 60 million is nothing to worry about. I'm not worried. I'm not in TH, and my TH family is far from Samut Sakhon. Where I live Covid is worse than ever and there is a "lock down" -- not that it means much to a lot of people. Up to now it's mainly been been folks returning to TH on airplanes who go straight into quarantine, and a few illegal border crossers. Re-visit this in two weeks time. Maybe just a tempest in a small teapot? Didn't the entire pandemic start in a wet market in a mid-level Chinese city? Again. I hope you are right. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coxyhog Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Bang Saen and Trang have cancelled their NYE festivities. Looks like covid hysteria could be set to hit Thailand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esco Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said: Bang Saen and Trang have cancelled their NYE festivities. Looks like covid hysteria could be set to hit Thailand. Yep this could be the end of Xmas and NYE festivities here too. That would be awful for the restaurants who must have stocked up on grub already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esco Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 hours ago, Thai Spice said: Well, well, well....as I said, with a bit more testing they will discover more cases .... Of course, as usual blame a good part of the responsabilities on : "A majority of the new cases are migrant workers, according to Opas." Anyway, Thai government numbers....to be taken with a large pinch of salt... They are migrant workers, the province is full of them. "The seafood industry in Samut Sakhon employs thousands of migrant workers from Myanmar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Esco said: They are migrant workers, the province is full of them. "The seafood industry in Samut Sakhon employs thousands of migrant workers from Myanmar. Yes, I know... But still, blame mainly the migrants ...... Now go test all test all schools in Samut Sakhon, and see the result ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forcebwithu Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 (edited) 8 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Out of the bag? Behave FFS, Thailand has a population of over 60 million, 500+ cases in a population of over 60 million is nothing to worry about. It wouldn't be so worrisome if Samut Sakhon wasn't part of the Bangkok Metropolitan Area with a population of 14 million. If it were a more isolated community then the authorities would have a much easier job of locking down the area to prevent further spread. But BMA with a population density of 5,300/km2, those 500+ known cases could easily infect thousands more. Edited December 20, 2020 by forcebwithu 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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