COVID 19 GLOBAL

[Butch]

6 hours ago, lazarus said:

 

I heard that, pl;us that the actual number could be much higher, due to some areas not having the vaccine availability.

One other reason, which is sadly lost on some of the detractors here is that the method of classification and cause of death was not universally applied, thus say, Thailand recorded covid deaths differently than the UK did (which they did , attributing initial covid deaths to "Viral Pneumonia". Hence, we'll never know the true number and all the Scientists can go on is the excess number of deaths in comparison year on year.

But let's not get confused, we've got an expert or two on here who says masks are not needed, vaccines will harm us and obviously have much more understanding of epidemiology than the worlds leading experts. Then again, they'll never let the truth get in the way of their opinion.

[forcebwithu]

As mentioned in the vid, excess deaths gives the clearest picture of how many additional deaths have been recorded during the pandemic. The Economist has a good web page tracking this data.

Tracking covid-19 excess deaths across countries

[lazarus]

5 hours ago, Butch said:

I heard that, pl;us that the actual number could be much higher, due to some areas not having the vaccine availability.

One other reason, which is sadly lost on some of the detractors here is that the method of classification and cause of death was not universally applied, thus say, Thailand recorded covid deaths differently than the UK did (which they did , attributing initial covid deaths to "Viral Pneumonia". Hence, we'll never know the true number and all the Scientists can go on is the excess number of deaths in comparison year on year.

But let's not get confused, we've got an expert or two on here who says masks are not needed, vaccines will harm us and obviously have much more understanding of epidemiology than the worlds leading experts. Then again, they'll never let the truth get in the way of their opinion.

History will show the Covid pandemic to be the most destructive event of our lifetime (in terms of deaths, societal disruption, and global economic impact). Countries continue to struggle to address this. And, it's not over yet.

In our respective communities we've dealt with it in various ways both personally and collectively. Many have lost loved ones and friends, or know someone who has. Our lifeways have changed.

The pandemic quickly capitalized on the many systemic weaknesses lurking under the surface of normality. In the US the health care system was quickly overwhelmed. Schools closed. Most travel came to a halt and tourism tanked. Political differences have widened. Tyrants have opportunistically seized more power.

And of course, as you mention, the naysayers and deniers parade themselves daily on the internet and street corners to offer their own brand of mental sickness. Attention seeking behavior knows no bounds.

It would be nice to think our species has learned from this experience and is more prepared for the next pandemic. Unfortunately, we're proven to be better at destroying life than we are at nurturing and protecting it.

 

[Krapow]

On 5/5/2022 at 3:30 PM, Nightcrawler said:

Be careful what you wish for 

Not really, i've already had it twice. Once i didn't even know i had it it was that bad, but tested positive in a Gov antibody test, the 2nd time it was like the cold, a mild one. My father in his 70's  with loads of health issues has had it, he had sniffles. My mum also in her 70's had it a month ago, she was out shopping in Tesco's a week after getting it.

Whilst not wanting to play it down, it impacts people differently, a sense of perspective is needed considering where we are now with Omicron. 

Lefty minded media or health professionals will always want more of a say in people's lives and more restrictions, plus the usual media scaremongering. Had we listened to them in December in the UK, we'd have been back into another totally unnecessary lockdown with all the damage that does in all sorts of ways.  I also read on here a couple of moths ago some new variant was causing Denmark to look into the abyss, fast forward to now, they're the 1st country to actually suspend their vaccine roll out as they say they have the virus under control, there's no need for more vaccines. Yet then the lefty healthcare nutters were in the media screaming the then situation was out of control! Usual for them in many countries, UK as well ...

Just because you're a healthcare professional doesn't mean you're automatically right or shouldn't be challenged. I mean look at those nutters McCullough and Malone. They have infinitely more knowledge about vaccines and virology than anyone posting on this forum, does that mean they are right or they shouldn't be challenged! 

The confirmation bias in this thread is strong. People read whatever media outlets or believe healthcare professionals who they already agree with, post it as if it's the only show in town. It's not though! 

Covid isn't going anywhere, people post articles on here about more people getting infected or whatever like it's some new development. It's not, people always will be infected, just like they will be infected with any number of virus or diseases which come and go depending on a range of factors. 

People want to wear a mask or continue to keep getting vaccines, crack on. I personally have had 3 and doubt i will be getting anymore unless there is a new variant on a par with Delta. But that's just me, people can may their own choices. Some will always want people to tell them what to do, Gov interference in their lives or whatever, based in their disposition, political viewpoint etc. Me, no, i followed all the restrictions right up last summer as i understood why and the need, but for me currently there is now no need, people do what they feel comfortable with and let's get on with lives our lives again. 

 

[fforest]

18 hours ago, lazarus said:

History will show the Covid pandemic to be the most destructive event of our lifetime (in terms of deaths, societal disruption, and global economic impact). Countries continue to struggle to address this. And, it's not over yet.

In our respective communities we've dealt with it in various ways both personally and collectively. Many have lost loved ones and friends, or know someone who has. Our lifeways have changed.

The pandemic quickly capitalized on the many systemic weaknesses lurking under the surface of normality. In the US the health care system was quickly overwhelmed. Schools closed. Most travel came to a halt and tourism tanked. Political differences have widened. Tyrants have opportunistically seized more power.

And of course, as you mention, the naysayers and deniers parade themselves daily on the internet and street corners to offer their own brand of mental sickness. Attention seeking behavior knows no bounds.

It would be nice to think our species has learned from this experience and is more prepared for the next pandemic. Unfortunately, we're proven to be better at destroying life than we are at nurturing and protecting it.

 

History will show the Covid pandemic to be the most destructive event of our lifetime 

 

Yes Sir.....Realizing the numbers of sheep in the world has been very destructive to my well being...

[Butch]

32 minutes ago, fforest said:

History will show the Covid pandemic to be the most destructive event of our lifetime 

 

Yes Sir.....Realizing the numbers of sheep in the world has been very destructive to my well being...

I don't think people are "sheeple" as such @fforest, perhaps the populous gives too much credence to Govt advice in many cases, but on the whole it was law in many Countries to follow the rules implemented, and following the law is usually part and parcel of living in a democratic and relatively free society.

Given it was an unprecedented event in modern history (on a global level ) then most Govts defaulted to the scenarios and action response they had prepared for and run over the years, which were based upon educated guesswork, predictions and mortality / demographic assumptions.

People tend to trust the govts they voted in, (or not in the case of a dictatorship) but on the whole, given the global impact and economic fallout we are all now going to have to suffer, with the benefit of hindsight it's easy to say they got it wrong, but what if they really got it wrong and we were now sitting on over a billion deaths with an even more virulent virus which wasn't stopped due to hitting a "vaccination wall"?.

Hypothetical, yes, but also very possible.

I really think that instead of looking back and claiming so and so was right, so and so was wrong and so and so was seriously misguided, maybe we should concentrate our efforts on getting over the next hurdle, which is the increased cost of living, potential economic collapse and adjustment to getting back to a sense of normality.

It's a rough road ahead.

 

[Nightcrawler]

1 hour ago, Butch said:

I don't think people are "sheeple" as such @fforest, perhaps the populous gives too much credence to Govt advice in many cases, but on the whole it was law in many Countries to follow the rules implemented, and following the law is usually part and parcel of living in a democratic and relatively free society.

Given it was an unprecedented event in modern history (on a global level ) then most Govts defaulted to the scenarios and action response they had prepared for and run over the years, which were based upon educated guesswork, predictions and mortality / demographic assumptions.

People tend to trust the govts they voted in, (or not in the case of a dictatorship) but on the whole, given the global impact and economic fallout we are all now going to have to suffer, with the benefit of hindsight it's easy to say they got it wrong, but what if they really got it wrong and we were now sitting on over a billion deaths with an even more virulent virus which wasn't stopped due to hitting a "vaccination wall"?.

Hypothetical, yes, but also very possible.

I really think that instead of looking back and claiming so and so was right, so and so was wrong and so and so was seriously misguided, maybe we should concentrate our efforts on getting over the next hurdle, which is the increased cost of living, potential economic collapse and adjustment to getting back to a sense of normality.

It's a rough road ahead.

 

Totally agree. We should be looking forward. Perhaps we will be better prepared for any future pandemics. 

[fforest]

58 minutes ago, Nightcrawler said:

Totally agree. We should be looking forward. Perhaps we will be better prepared for any future pandemics. 

The next scheduled pandemic should be in 2117 - 2120 .....Pandemic years 1918. 2020, 2118- 2120....So we should have another 100 years without this nonsense...Time to get back to climate change,and silly Mars missions...But we are a little overdue for another world war,maybe in the next few decades?

Edited May 7, 2022 by fforest

[Nightcrawler]

29 minutes ago, fforest said:

The next scheduled pandemic should be in 2117 - 2120 .....Pandemic years 1918. 2020, 2118- 2120....So we should have another 100 years without this nonsense...Time to get back to climate change,and silly Mars missions...But we are a little overdue for another world war,maybe in the next few decades?

The are no schedules. Just because the last pandemic was in 1918, viruses do not work to a schedule. It would be nice not to experience any major pandemics in the next hundred year but we have no way of knowing. Even less predictable than a sizeable asteroid falling to earth. 

No one could have predicted the Covid pandemic. The only answer was to react to it as quickly as possible. It's not over yet, but less threatening to the world population. 

I shudder to think how you would have handled the pandemic had you been a World leader. 😁😁

Hopefully this time next year this thread might become obsolete and normality restored globally. 

We take a lot for granted on planet earth but our existence is just a nano second compared to the 4.5 billion years of its existence. We should look after, its our only home. Or maybe the earth isn't real and just part of an inter galactic conspiracy? 🙄

[lazarus]

Seems buying a social media app is not part of the plan.

. . .

Bill Gates explains “How to Prevent the Next Pandemic”
His proposals for nipping infections in the bud are worth exploring

https://www.economist.com/culture/bill-gates-explains-how-to-prevent-the-next-pandemic/21809103?utm_content=ed-picks-article-link-2&etear=nl_special_2&utm_campaign=a.coronavirus-special-edition&utm_medium=email.internal-newsletter.np&utm_source=salesforce-marketing-cloud&utm_term=5/7/2022&utm_id=1158899

First, the climate. Next, plagues. Bill Gates’s career-switch from entrepreneur and philanthropist to crusading author is developing nicely. It is just over a year since he published “How to Avoid a Climate Disaster”. Now he sets out to explain “How to Prevent the Next Pandemic”.

Both books consider what might be described as human-created natural disasters. Some disasters—hurricanes, earthquakes, tsunamis—are purely natural. The best people can do when dealing with these is to anticipate them through things like warning systems, planning codes and reinforced buildings. Others, such as war, have human causes. They may sometimes have a natural trigger, such as a drought that sets populations on the move. But human beings inflict the damage.

Climate change and epidemics are halfway between these extremes. They are caused by people interacting with nature—in one case by altering the atmosphere’s chemical make-up, in the other through actions ranging from inadequate disposal of sewage to international jet travel and sexual activity. As Larry Brilliant, one of the epidemiologists who helped to eradicate smallpox, observes, “Outbreaks are inevitable [the nature part of the equation] but pandemics are optional [the human part].” And that provides an opening for the sort of techno-optimistic approach that Mr Gates loves.

One pandemic that might have been optional had it been spotted early enough— aids—has been in his cross-hairs for years, as part of the activity of the foundation he runs jointly with his ex-wife Melinda French Gates. aids has killed some 36m people, most of them since it came to the attention of medical science in 1981. Yet subsequent analysis has shown it had been spreading in Africa for decades. A better early-warning system could have picked it up in the 1950s, rather than the 1980s, allowing it to be tackled much earlier.

Sexually transmitted infections, though, spread slowly. Airborne ones spread fast—particularly in an era of mass international travel. Early detection is vital, and is the first item on Mr Gates’s list of things to accomplish. Others include helping people protect themselves; finding new treatments; and developing vaccines. And practice drills: he is big on the idea that, just as military forces drill and earthquake-response teams drill, so should those tasked with combating pandemics.

But who should those people be? That is the nub of the book. Armed forces and civil-defence teams are national responsibilities. But pathogens know no borders, and governments, in any case, are curiously uninterested in contingency planning for new diseases. While covid-19 remains fresh in people’s minds, Mr Gates sees an opportunity to correct this.

He suggests creating a global “fire brigade” of 3,000 experts scattered around the world, recruited for skills ranging from epidemiology and genetics, through drug and vaccine development and computer modelling, to diplomacy. This outfit, which would probably work under the auspices of the World Health Organisation, would remain on permanent standby, ready to respond to any detected outbreak.

Mr Gates tentatively proposes that it be called germ (Global Epidemic Response and Mobilisation). The pr department might not like the name, but the idea is worth exploring. He estimates germ itself would cost about $1bn a year. While waiting for the call, its staff would be employed in beefing up the world’s anti-pandemic infrastructure—this is where the diplomacy would come in—by chivvying governments into the necessary spending on detecting, monitoring and suppressing potential outbreaks. And in running drills.

On the technological side, his shopping list includes designing and agreeing on protocols for the rapid mass-testing of drugs that might work against a particular pathogen if an outbreak did happen. (Britain’s recovery trial, which was ready to go within six weeks of covid-19 being identified, and eventually included 40,000 participants at 185 sites, comes in for particular praise here.) Mr Gates also wants to improve both vaccine manufacturing and distribution, and to improve vaccines themselves, particularly by eliminating cold chains.

Most existing vaccines are temperature-sensitive, and must be passed quickly from one refrigerator to another en route to the clinics where they will be used. Mr Gates recommends research into the development of heat-tolerant vaccines. For pathogens that spread through the air, he favours a cutting-edge approach to prevention: nasal sprays containing drugs that bind to the cell-surface proteins which viruses use to gain entry, thus denying them the means to get into their target cells.

And he envisages new, broad-spectrum jabs against entire classes of viruses, such as influenza. Techno-optimist that he is, he suggests such universal vaccines could not only pre-empt illnesses of the future, but annihilate those of the present. In other words, no more flu. Ever.

That does sound pretty optimistic, especially given the difficulty of eliminating even single viruses from the planet—something that has been achieved only for smallpox and for a cattle disease called rinderpest, and has notably not happened for polio, which still lingers in a few places despite a decades-long campaign to get rid of it. But, as Arthur C. Clarke put it in his second law of science, “The only way of discovering the limits of the possible is to venture past them into the impossible.”

Whether anything like germ will ever come to pass, as the world’s attention shifts from the crisis of covid-19 to the catastrophe in Ukraine, remains to be seen. But if this book stimulates even a little limit-pushing of the sort Mr Gates suggests, it will have served its purpose well. 

[fygjam]

The Concept of Classical Herd Immunity May Not Apply to COVID-19 

David M Morens, Gregory K Folkers, Anthony S Fauci

The Journal of Infectious Diseases

Published: 21 March 2022

There has been speculation about when in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic we will be able to
live with the virus in a manner that does not disrupt most peoples’ lives. Much of this discussion has focused on
herd immunity thresholds (Box 1). As commonly understood [1–7], herd immunity thresholds are reached when a
sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated or has recovered from natural infection with a pathogen such
that its community circulation is reduced below the level of significant public health threat. For example, this
threshold has been met with polio and measles circulation in the United States.

Box 1. Herd Immunity Threshold

A herd immunity threshold is the proportion of a population with immunity against a communicable disease agent
(resulting from innate immunity, natural infection, or vaccination) above which transmission of the agent is largely prevented, except for sporadic outbreaks in undervaccinated or otherwise incompletely protected subsets
of individuals.

However, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, is so
different from polio and measles that classical herd immunity may not readily apply to it. Important differences
include the phenotypic stability of polio and measles viruses, and their ability to elicit long-term protective
immunity, compared to SARS-CoV-2. For these and other reasons, controlling COVID-19 by increasing herd
immunity may be an elusive goal.

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiac109/6561438?rss=1&login=false

 

[Glasseye]

On 5/6/2022 at 10:25 AM, lazarus said:

History will show the Covid pandemic to be the most destructive event of our lifetime (in terms of deaths, societal disruption, and global economic impact). Countries continue to struggle to address this. And, it's not over yet.

In our respective communities we've dealt with it in various ways both personally and collectively. Many have lost loved ones and friends, or know someone who has. Our lifeways have changed.

The pandemic quickly capitalized on the many systemic weaknesses lurking under the surface of normality. In the US the health care system was quickly overwhelmed. Schools closed. Most travel came to a halt and tourism tanked. Political differences have widened. Tyrants have opportunistically seized more power.

And of course, as you mention, the naysayers and deniers parade themselves daily on the internet and street corners to offer their own brand of mental sickness. Attention seeking behavior knows no bounds.

It would be nice to think our species has learned from this experience and is more prepared for the next pandemic. Unfortunately, we're proven to be better at destroying life than we are at nurturing and protecting it.

 

 

When we invaded Iraq I gave up all hope (following the debacle of Vietnam). At the point I recognized that repairing stupid was beyond hope. That revelation arose around the time I discovered a new place to live (yes I know, every place has issues). 

But, when it comes to the notion of the possibility of stupid people ever learning to pull their heads out of their asses....nope, ain't gonna happen.

 

 

[forcebwithu]

11 hours ago, fygjam said:

The Concept of Classical Herd Immunity May Not Apply to COVID-19 

David M Morens, Gregory K Folkers, Anthony S Fauci

The Journal of Infectious Diseases

Published: 21 March 2022

There has been speculation about when in the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic we will be able to
live with the virus in a manner that does not disrupt most peoples’ lives. Much of this discussion has focused on
herd immunity thresholds (Box 1). As commonly understood [1–7], herd immunity thresholds are reached when a
sufficient proportion of the population is vaccinated or has recovered from natural infection with a pathogen such
that its community circulation is reduced below the level of significant public health threat. For example, this
threshold has been met with polio and measles circulation in the United States.

Box 1. Herd Immunity Threshold

A herd immunity threshold is the proportion of a population with immunity against a communicable disease agent
(resulting from innate immunity, natural infection, or vaccination) above which transmission of the agent is largely prevented, except for sporadic outbreaks in undervaccinated or otherwise incompletely protected subsets
of individuals.

However, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), the virus that causes COVID-19, is so
different from polio and measles that classical herd immunity may not readily apply to it. Important differences
include the phenotypic stability of polio and measles viruses, and their ability to elicit long-term protective
immunity, compared to SARS-CoV-2. For these and other reasons, controlling COVID-19 by increasing herd
immunity may be an elusive goal.

https://academic.oup.com/jid/advance-article/doi/10.1093/infdis/jiac109/6561438?rss=1&login=false

 

I believe there's no "may" about it for the same reason we've never developed herd immunity against the virus that causes the common cold.

[Horizondave]

When I am in Thailand I will take a side trip to the P.I.  This will be August so maybe the restrictions will have changed but presently I need a PCR or professional Antigen test, can anybody tell me where I can get this done in Pattaya and how much. Need the tests within 48 hours of travel.

N.B....now have added a dedicated topic re my question so no need to add info here, thanks for any deals in the new Topic.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Horizondave

[fygjam]

^^^

Perhaps one of the clinics that do the medical for a drivers license renewal?

 

[Painter]

37 minutes ago, Horizondave said:

When I am in Thailand I will take a side trip to the P.I.  This will be August so maybe the restrictions will have changed but presently I need a PCR or professional Antigen test, can anybody tell me where I can get this done in Pattaya and how much. Need the tests within 48 hours of travel.

Various places doing them when I left.

One on Klang, opposite side to Big C, about 100 yards towards the beach. (This one?   http://www.maximumclinic.com/#)

Junction of Pattaya Tai and 3rd Road, about 100 yards towards Jomtien on the left. http://www.mtinterlab.co/en  

Plus the usual hospitals.

I believe the hospitals were more expensive than the test centres but cant remember the prices....sorry!

 

 

[Horizondave]

41 minutes ago, fygjam said:

^^^

Perhaps one of the clinics that do the medical for a drivers license renewal?

 

Cheers, think I will start a topic as I might get names and costs, I am sure some have flown to places needing PCRs etc.

[Horizondave]

28 minutes ago, Painter said:

Various places doing them when I left.

One on Klang, opposite side to Big C, about 100 yards towards the beach. (This one?   http://www.maximumclinic.com/#)

Junction of Pattaya Tai and 3rd Road, about 100 yards towards Jomtien on the left. http://www.mtinterlab.co/en  

Plus the usual hospitals.

I believe the hospitals were more expensive than the test centres but cant remember the prices....sorry!

 

 

Good info, thanks for the links. Think I will just start a topic to see if I can get costs of hospitals etc. I am sure some have flown out of Thailand to Philippines.

[KWA]

14 minutes ago, Horizondave said:

When I am in Thailand I will take a side trip to the P.I.  This will be August so maybe the restrictions will have changed but presently I need a PCR or professional Antigen test, can anybody tell me where I can get this done in Pattaya and how much. Need the tests within 48 hours of travel.

Up in Naklua near the fish market.  They also do ATK tests (or did recently).

[Horizondave]

Thanks for the replies on PCR tests in Pattaya etc., I have now started a dedicated topic regarding these tests. Thanks

[KWA]

Just got my Thailand booster jab added to my NHS Scotland records.  Remarkably simple but only because I grabbed the EU equivalent QR code from Mor Phrom during the short while it was available, as it seems to be broke again now.

[tko]

11 hours ago, KWA said:

Just got my Thailand booster jab added to my NHS Scotland records.  Remarkably simple but only because I grabbed the EU equivalent QR code from Mor Phrom during the short while it was available, as it seems to be broke again now.

It still shows on Mor Phrom for me.

[KWA]

8 hours ago, tko said:

It still shows on Mor Phrom for me.

When I select "Digital Health Pass" I get this screen.  Below the writing "EU Digital COVID Certificate" is where it was and as you can see now, it's gone for me.  There is also an "offline" message at the top of the page.  Do you still have a QR Code there?

 

[tko]

1 hour ago, KWA said:

When I select "Digital Health Pass" I get this screen.  Below the writing "EU Digital COVID Certificate" is where it was and as you can see now, it's gone for me.  There is also an "offline" message at the top of the page.  Do you still have a QR Code there?

 

Yes, I have a red colored title over a QR code and it says Vaccinated underneath in green with a number of days left and expiration date.  It also says "Offline Mode" at the top of the screen in yellow. 

Are you just doing a screen capture to move it to your computer, or is  there  away to use "share" ?

[KWA]

18 hours ago, tko said:

Yes, I have a red colored title over a QR code and it says Vaccinated underneath in green with a number of days left and expiration date.  It also says "Offline Mode" at the top of the screen in yellow. 

Are you just doing a screen capture to move it to your computer, or is  there  away to use "share" ?

That sounds like how mine was previously - the red title being:

 

That's now gone for me but I'd taken a screenshot back in March when I first came across it which is what I used to get it on my local EU system.  I can't see a way to share rather than screenshot.

I think I may now know a possible reason why mine is wrong.  Do you have the orange text at the top of my first screenshot just above where I redacted my Passport Number?  I had an issue with my passport number that I thought was corrected, but the fix may not have flowed though to here.