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This article is similar to several summaries in the mainstream press of a private think-tank study of the effects of the BLM protests on COVID-19 transmission.  The study has not undergone peer review.  My highlights in bold.

Evil

Popular Science.JPG

COVID-19 cases are surging, but not because of Black Lives Matter protests

Social distancing measures by all could have helped prevent increases in coronavirus cases after Black Lives Matter demonstrations.

By Kat Eschner  June 25, 2020

 

Scientists at the National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed the relationship between anonymous cell phone tracking data from cities where Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests occurred and CDC data on new COVID-19 cases. They found that, contrary to what some experts predicted, COVID-19 infection rates actually decreased in places that experienced BLM protests—even when those protests had particularly large showings of people.

Their results are published in a working paper that has not yet undergone peer review, a key step to getting a research study published in a scientific journal. Using anonymized cell phone tracking information gathered by the data company SafeGraph as well as CDC COVID-19 data, the researchers found no evidence that the BLM protests “reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onslaught,” the researchers write, noting that public health officials’ early predictions that these protests would cause a spike may not have taken into account every factor involved in spreading the virus around.

Still, many questions remain, says study author Andrew Friedson, a University of Colorado Denver economist. Although the researchers are able to identify the effect of the BLM protests, they still can’t say who in the city is still getting sick. They also think one potential explanation for why there was no spike in COVID-19 cases could be that more people who were not involved in the protests stayed home than they would have otherwise, fearing police violence or being swept up in the protests.

Friedson and his colleagues’ hypothesis stems from another finding: “In places that were having protests, shelter-in-place behavior was actually going up,” Friedson says. Because protests tended to take place in downtown districts, Friedson says, fewer people were heading to those areas for other purposes, such as shopping.

(READ MORE)

 

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29 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

This article is similar to several summaries in the mainstream press of a private think-tank study of the effects of the BLM protests on COVID-19 transmission.  The study has not undergone peer review.  My highlights in bold.

Evil

Popular Science.JPG

COVID-19 cases are surging, but not because of Black Lives Matter protests

Social distancing measures by all could have helped prevent increases in coronavirus cases after Black Lives Matter demonstrations.

By Kat Eschner  June 25, 2020

 

Scientists at the National Bureau of Economic Research analyzed the relationship between anonymous cell phone tracking data from cities where Black Lives Matter (BLM) protests occurred and CDC data on new COVID-19 cases. They found that, contrary to what some experts predicted, COVID-19 infection rates actually decreased in places that experienced BLM protests—even when those protests had particularly large showings of people.

Their results are published in a working paper that has not yet undergone peer review, a key step to getting a research study published in a scientific journal. Using anonymized cell phone tracking information gathered by the data company SafeGraph as well as CDC COVID-19 data, the researchers found no evidence that the BLM protests “reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onslaught,” the researchers write, noting that public health officials’ early predictions that these protests would cause a spike may not have taken into account every factor involved in spreading the virus around.

Still, many questions remain, says study author Andrew Friedson, a University of Colorado Denver economist. Although the researchers are able to identify the effect of the BLM protests, they still can’t say who in the city is still getting sick. They also think one potential explanation for why there was no spike in COVID-19 cases could be that more people who were not involved in the protests stayed home than they would have otherwise, fearing police violence or being swept up in the protests.

Friedson and his colleagues’ hypothesis stems from another finding: “In places that were having protests, shelter-in-place behavior was actually going up,” Friedson says. Because protests tended to take place in downtown districts, Friedson says, fewer people were heading to those areas for other purposes, such as shopping.

(READ MORE)

 

what is the source ...clicked on the link but ad blocker thing wont let me get beyond

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54 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

I only copied part of the article.  The real meat comes in a dialogue with a Harvard expert.

Evil

scientific.JPG

How to Evaluate Coronavirus Risks 
from Black Lives Matter Protests

Large crowds, tear gas and jail cells could contribute to transmission of the virus. But it would not be easy to separate that danger from the risks of states reopening businesses and workplaces

By Tanya Lewis on June 22, 2020

Large crowds gather in New York City to protest the death of George Floyd and police violence. Crowds of any kind could pose a risk of coronavirus transmission, although being outside and wearing masks may help. Credit: Ira L. Black Getty Images

After months of being cooped up at home to prevent the spread of coronavirus, people have taken to the streets by the thousands over the past few weeks to protest against police killings of Black people and decades of systemic racism. The gatherings have some people worried about a spike in coronavirus infections—but they have also been defended by some public health experts, who argue that racial injustice is itself a major public health threat.

The risk of transmitting coronavirus is likely lower outdoors, and many of the protesters have been wearing masks. But some experts note there is still risk—especially given the close interactions between police and protesters, the use of chemicals such as tear gas and pepper spray that irritate the mucous membranes (causing tearing, runny noses and coughing), and the corralling of arrested protesters in crowded vans and jail cells.

There is not much evidence that the protests have caused spikes in coronavirus infections so far. And any increase in cases from the protests would be hard to separate from the fact that states are reopening in general, according to Caroline Buckee, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. Scientific American spoke with Buckee about the risks posed by protesting, the difficulty of tracing infections back to the protests, and how to stay safe while exercising one’s democratic rights.

(READ MORE)

EP,

notice today that the NY government has told their tracers NOT to ask if the person being interviewed has been to a protest.WTF.

NY has had 1647 deaths per one million infected persons,the highest in the world,while texas has had 63 deaths per one million

regards

grayray

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34 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said:

the researchers found no evidence that the BLM protests “reignited COVID-19 case growth during the more than three weeks following protest onslaught,” the researchers write, noting that public health officials’ early predictions that these protests would cause a spike may not have taken into account every factor involved in spreading the virus around.

 
 

The poor old wingnuts will have to find another moribund equine to flagellate.

 

Just been listening to Dr Dan (a New York doctor). His comments, no uptick in cases caused by BLM protests. Uptick in southern states due to "air conditioning weather". People shut themselves inside (crowded) with the air conditioner on full (increased air circulation). Possible uptick in northern states as "snowbirds" return from the south.

Other comments from Dr Dan.

Get yourself a pulse oximeter (measures oxygen saturation of your blood). If you contract Covid-19 then one day oxygen saturation drops into the eighties, following day increased respiration rate, on the third day you'll probably need to be admitted to hospital and receive supplemental oxygen.

The various phases of disease.

  • week 1 (from onset of symptoms). Viral stage, fever, aches and pains etc.
  • week 2 Inflammatory stage, risk of cytokine storm respiratory distress.
  • week 3 Coagulation stage, risk of blood clots. He and the service he works for now monitor patients for 48 days for clotting problems.
  • week 4 Secondary bacterial infection stage.

Now another shortage of testing swabs in NY, southern states monopolising them.

COVID-19 long-haulers. Disease can last for several months
The disease’s “long-haulers” have endured relentless waves of debilitating symptoms—and disbelief from doctors and friends.

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, fygjam said:

The poor old wingnuts will have to find another moribund equine to flagellate.

 

Just been listening to Dr Dan (a New York doctor). His comments, no uptick in cases caused by BLM protests. Uptick in southern states due to "air conditioning weather". People shut themselves inside (crowded) with the air conditioner on full (increased air circulation). Possible uptick in northern states as "snowbirds" return from the south.

Other comments from Dr Dan.

Get yourself a pulse oximeter (measures oxygen saturation of your blood). If you contract Covid-19 then one day oxygen saturation drops into the eighties, following day increased respiration rate, on the third day you'll probably need to be admitted to hospital and receive supplemental oxygen.

The various phases of disease.

  • week 1 (from onset of symptoms). Viral stage, fever, aches and pains etc.
  • week 2 Inflammatory stage, risk of cytokine storm respiratory distress.
  • week 3 Coagulation stage, risk of blood clots. He and the service he works for now monitor patients for 48 days for clotting problems.
  • week 4 Secondary bacterial infection stage.

Now another shortage of testing swabs in NY, southern states monopolising them.

COVID-19 long-haulers. Disease can last for several months
The disease’s “long-haulers” have endured relentless waves of debilitating symptoms—and disbelief from doctors and friends.

 

 

 

Covid solution 

1.Turn off the TV

2.Stop wearing a mask, stop social distancing

3.Live your life

100% Covid cure ......

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8 minutes ago, fforest said:

Covid solution 

1.Turn off the TV

2.Stop wearing a mask, stop social distancing

3.Live your life

100% Covid cure ......

Option 2.

  1. Follow the rules.
  2. Eliminate community transmission.
  3. Return to normality in stages.

We followed that approach in Western Australia and the pubs, clubs and casino are open. Sporting grounds can fill to 50% capacity. Businesses opening as normal.

No further outbreak by 18th July and all restrictions are lifted apart from the hard border keeping Victorians and Clive Palmer out.

A far superior Covid-19 management plan.

 

 

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10 hours ago, Krapow said:

Why? Probably a combination of beaches packed, protests, counter protests, illegal raves etc. Once the bars etc open next Saturday let's hope it just continues to plateau.

The opening of the bars on July 4th in England is in effect large scale scientific experiment with plenty of willing human guinea pigs:default_drink:

As a keen pub-goer, I'm going to swerve the opening few days at least, if not weeks. First up, the bars won't be a fun environment- having to queue up to get in, no music, no commentary of the sports and all the enforced health protocols.

Second up I've got stacks of beers indoors, my beer delivery man dropped off on Tuesday from Oakam. They normally asked to check your name to make sure you are the right person, he dumped my ale off outside and said "how's it going?"😀

Thirdly going back to the start, this is going to be an experiment- I'd rather watch if play out from the sideline to start.

Sir Prof King from Independent SAGE (ex UK Chief Scientist) is saying the pubs, shouldn't be open and should only serve people outdoors (don't think Sir David is pub goer) .Minute 23 approximately, no need to watch the whole lot!!

So for me, I'll be looking out for outdoor festivals and pop ups.

Newbury racecourse setting up a pop-up pub in the paddock for the Derby on Saturday. Racing, the football and some beers outdoors, fantastic if only I was closer!!

Good sporting crowd too, none of your atypical Guardian reading Sinophobes.

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16 minutes ago, fygjam said:

Option 2.

  1. Follow the rules.
  2. Eliminate community transmission.
  3. Return to normality in stages.

We followed that approach in Western Australia and the pubs, clubs and casino are open. Sporting grounds can fill to 50% capacity. Businesses opening as normal.

No further outbreak by 18th July and all restrictions are lifted apart from the hard border keeping Victorians and Clive Palmer out.

A far superior Covid-19 management plan.

 

 

The authorities already have more lockdowns planned......Just wait and see......This Covid is a gift from God to the NWO.... 

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7 hours ago, dcfc2007 said:

Calm down ffs you're getting hysterical.

Did you actually look at the graph I posted earlier? The trend in the UK is going one way, and that is down. There will be daily and weekly fluctuations but that's expected, just like in all countries, not helped by your buddies in London wrecking the place

Behavioural scientists? LOL... Give me a break. The so called experts have been so wrong on this it's actually laughable, like when they told us that Covid had a 6% mortality rate, when it's more than likely closer to 0.2%.  

I can't even be bothered to debunk the rest of that hysterical, guardian induced diatribe. 

No, you're the one that seems to getting hysterical because people have a different opinion to you. I'm perfectly calm, I went to sleep, not spent half the night arguing with people about it like you. 

Graphs? I see graphs on it every other day through my work, intelligence led and evidence based graphs, both regional and global. I've already said the lockdown worked as shown. What I said above is the truth. That you want to get hysterical because it is the truth and it doesn't fit your narrative is your issue, but the truth none the less. 

Aye, behavioural scientists. They told what would happen, and guess what, they were right. 

The sooner you accept people can a have a different opinion to you the better. All through this thread you've went off in tangents non stop when people don't agree with you, arguing for hours and hours non stop ffs, but it's me that's not calm, got ya! lol.  That you actually imply that i read the Guardian and that's where I got my views on this from is some f***d up shit 😂, I wouldn't wipe my arse with the Guardian. Roy Greenslade, Owen Jones, Stan Collymore etc, f**k sake have a day off! But it's indicative of how you see things, of your total inability to see beyond your set, entrenched view.  

Maybe lockdown impacted you more than you think ...

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16 minutes ago, Lemondropkid said:

The opening of the bars on July 4th in England is in effect large scale scientific experiment with plenty of willing human guinea pigs:default_drink:

As a keen pub-goer, I'm going to swerve the opening few days at least, if not weeks. First up, the bars won't be a fun environment- having to queue up to get in, no music, no commentary of the sports and all the enforced health protocols.

Second up I've got stacks of beers indoors, my beer delivery man dropped off on Tuesday from Oakam. They normally asked to check your name to make sure you are the right person, he dumped my ale off outside and said "how's it going?"😀

Thirdly going back to the start, this is going to be an experiment- I'd rather watch if play out from the sideline to start.

Sir Prof King from Independent SAGE (ex UK Chief Scientist) is saying the pubs, shouldn't be open and should only serve people outdoors (don't think Sir David is pub goer) .Minute 23 approximately, no need to watch the whole lot!!

So for me, I'll be looking out for outdoor festivals and pop ups.

Newbury racecourse setting up a pop-up pub in the paddock for the Derby on Saturday. Racing, the football and some beers outdoors, fantastic if only I was closer!!

Good sporting crowd too, none of your atypical Guardian reading Sinophobes.

😂 Guardian reading, I know,  this thread just keeps giving and giving! Me, apparantly a Guardian reader ffs! Unreal!

Aye, a lot of hassle it seems, same as going on holiday. Doubt I'll be doing either due too much hassle not making it pleasurable. A bit like this thread, think I'll give it a break as well😅 

Though the gym, I'll certainly be going there once it opens, hopefully not too long. 

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6 hours ago, grayray said:

notice today that the NY government has told their tracers NOT to ask if the person being interviewed has been to a protest.WTF.

Yes, it's true.  default_Crazy1.gif

I can't imagine lying down in an NYC street for any reason.  I'm sure you can catch a number of nasty diseases breathing in the dust.  I hope like hell they all had masks.

Evil

P4otest.gif

Protesters laid down on Flatbush Avenue in honor of George Floyd, May 31, 2020.  Ben Fractenberg/THE CITY   

NYC COVID-19 Contact Tracers Not Asking About George Floyd 
Protest Participation, Despite Fears of New Virus Wave

BY GREG B. SMITH  JUN 14, 2020, 5:30PM EDT

Over the two last weeks, Mayor Bill de Blasio and others have voiced concerns that packed police brutality protests across the city could trigger a new wave of COVID-19 infections.

Whether or not that’s the case, however, remains unknown — and de Blasio’s team won’t be directly trying to find out.

The hundreds of contact tracing workers hired by the city under de Blasio’s new “test and trace” campaign have been instructed not to ask anyone who’s tested positive for COVID-19 whether they recently attended a demonstration, City Hall confirmed to THE CITY.

“No person will be asked proactively if they attended a protest,” Avery Cohen, a spokesperson for de Blasio, wrote in an emailed response to questions by THE CITY.

Instead, test-and-trace workers ask COVID-positive individuals general questions to help them “recall ‘contacts’ and individuals they may have exposed,” Cohen said. Among the initial questions: “Do you live with anyone in your home?”

Tracers then ask about “close contacts” — defined as being within six feet of another person for at least 10 minutes.

It’s up to tested individuals to volunteer whether any of those close contacts occurred during protests. “If a person wants to proactively offer that information, there is an opportunity for them to do so,” Cohen wrote.

The mayor announced his “test and trace” program on May 8, promising that the city would hire 1,000 “contact tracers.” City Hall has declined to spell out how many individuals have been questioned so far, but de Blasio promised to release that information Monday.

Since the effort began, officials say most — but not all — people questioned by contact tracers have been cooperative. Some, however, have refused to volunteer any information about their close contacts.

“Naturally, we have not been able to obtain all information from all positive cases, but engagement among those reached is high,” Cohen wrote.

Mayor and Gov Want to Know

There’s no direct effort to resolve a question both de Blasio and Gov. Andrew Cuomo have asked repeatedly since the demonstrations against police brutality erupted following the death of George Floyd at the hands of Minneapolis police: Are the protests helping spread the virus?

“That’s the one variable in this equation that we’re not sure of: We don’t know what the effect of those protests are,” Cuomo said last week.

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The three-day average percentage of New Yorkers whose COVID-19 test turned out positive has dropped dramatically, from 69% on March 31 to an all-time low of 2% as of June 8.

This has occurred, in part, because initially only people diagnosed as very sick were tested. More recently, a much larger pool of individuals has been tested — including those with no symptoms — driving down the percentage of positives.

But there’s a growing concern the numbers could spike again, given Phase One of the city’s reopening and the protests.

So far, there have been no apparent signs of a dramatic swing. De Blasio on Thursday announced the three-day average percentage of positive tests had risen slightly from 2% to 3%.

Cuomo and de Blasio find themselves walking a tightrope, warning protesters to be aware that COVID-19 remains a very real threat to life and strongly advising all who attend demonstrations to get tested. But they are also steering clear of dissuading anyone from participating in demonstrations.

A Different Experience

A key source of tests for the virus now is the medical chain CityMD with 100 clinics in the city, New Jersey and Long Island. A New Yorker who called up CityMD last week to get an appointment for a test after witnessing a daunting line at one of the clinics told THE CITY that the CityMD staff asked the individual whether they’d attended a protest.

CityMD officials did not respond to messages seeking comment.

In Nassau County, health officials take a slightly different approach. While they do not ask individuals who test positive whether they’ve attended protests, they do ask them where they’ve been recently.

“We ask them questions about where they’ve been so that we can gauge who may be at risk,” said Mary Ellen Laurain, a spokesperson for the Nassau County Health Department. “It may come out as part of the interview, but we ask more open-ended questions.”

Despite Cuomo’s concerns about the effect of the protests, the state Health Department has remained neutral on the issue.

Jonah Bruno, an agency spokesperson, stated, “We’re working with New York City to balance the public health priority while also protecting personal privacy, as we seek to ensure a thorough contact tracing program that helps us contain the COVID-19 virus and monitor any fluctuations in the infection rate as we continue reopening New York.”

‘Treat People with Ease’

Dr. S. Patrick Kachur, a professor at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and a former official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said contact trackers face a balancing act: trying to obtain useful information about an infected person’s contacts without alienating them with overly intrusive questions.

Asking someone if they’d been at a protest could wind up discouraging them from being candid in their answers, he noted.

“I think the logic has to do with the fact that contact tracing requires a strong level of trust between the interviewer and the person they’re talking to,” he said. “It’s really important to have a good rapport and treat people with ease. It’s important to not ask questions that will impede your ability to do the best job you can.”

For example, Kachur, who has been involved in contact tracking during previous pandemics involving the flu and Zika, noted that when investigators are trying to track the spread of HIV, tuberculosis or most diseases, they make a point of not asking about a person’s immigration status.

And while knowledge of how the protests might be sparking a second wave would be helpful, it would be very difficult to track close contacts at events attended by thousands of strangers, he said.

“There’s definitely a concern that state and city officials have that the protests could be a place where transmission occurs, but that risk is lower than household and other community contacts,” Kachur said. “And it would be really challenging to trace those contacts who you’ve been protesting with.”

Going forward, a key question will be whether Blasio’s test-and-trace program can handle the workload as increased testing yields more positive cases and more contacts to trace.

“How well are they able to keep up with the complete investigations that they are able to trace?” Kachur asked. “If they have more cases than they can deal with, that would be concerning. It would be a confusing month or two here.”

(LINK)

 

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1 hour ago, Krapow said:

😂 Guardian reading, I know,  this thread just keeps giving and giving! Me, apparantly a Guardian reader ffs! Unreal!

Aye, a lot of hassle it seems, same as going on holiday. Doubt I'll be doing either due too much hassle not making it pleasurable. A bit like this thread, think I'll give it a break as well😅 

Though the gym, I'll certainly be going there once it opens, hopefully not too long. 

True I was only labelling you in jest- got your more down as a SWP paper reader😉

Unfortunate for you gyms reopening are now tied in part to how the pubs opening goes. If we see a spike in infections from the pubs/other relaxations, that will put a pause on you.

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1 minute ago, Lemondropkid said:

True I was only labelling you in jest- got your more down as a SWP paper reader😉

Unfortunate for you gyms reopening are now tied in part to how the pubs opening goes. If we see a spike in infections from the pubs/other relaxations, that will put a pause on you.

I wonder how long it will be before UK brothels and Massage parlours open? Not that I would visit those sort of places 😄

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2 hours ago, fygjam said:

Option 2.

  1. Follow the rules.
  2. Eliminate community transmission.
  3. Return to normality in stages.

We followed that approach in Western Australia and the pubs, clubs and casino are open. Sporting grounds can fill to 50% capacity. Businesses opening as normal.

No further outbreak by 18th July and all restrictions are lifted apart from the hard border keeping Victorians and Clive Palmer out.

A far superior Covid-19 management plan.

 

 

Yes a better plan and very important it is done with community in mind.

This pathetic mindset that other members here have that shows a total lack of respect by not taking the health of those around us into consideration is why we need decent plans that could save us all down the line.

Some on here are so selfish yet they can't see it and never will.

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49 minutes ago, Lemondropkid said:

True I was only labelling you in jest- got your more down as a SWP paper reader😉

Unfortunate for you gyms reopening are now tied in part to how the pubs opening goes. If we see a spike in infections from the pubs/other relaxations, that will put a pause on you.

My local is 14 miles from my home, but  I haven’t been in since late January. The pub is tiny and narrow and it would be impossible to stay 1mt apart, let alone 2mt. Even if it did open next month, I’d be steering clear of going in for several months yet. Pity really, because it’s a fantastic little freehold pub with very friendly local customers and we always have a great laugh in “complaints corner”.

Everyone takes the mickey out of everyone else and the banter flies too and fro, but never any nasty stuff. Most beers are from small breweries and the wines are always good and the landlord lays on free food on Sunday evenings and stands his round as well. 
I miss it. 😢

 

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9 hours ago, lazarus said:

...Among those who become infected with the coronavirus, the risk of dying from COVID-19 increases sharply with age, the latest data show. Although the overall mortality rate for those 1.3 million cases was 5.4%, it was 1% or lower for Americans under 50. However, it was 2.4% for those in their 50s, 6.7% for those in their 60s, 16.6% for those in their 70s, and 28.7% for those 80 and up.

Those statistics show why the young ones are flouting the regulations, and why the old ones are moaning about that!

Edited by Bazle
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9 hours ago, lazarus said:

...Among those who become infected with the coronavirus, the risk of dying from COVID-19 increases sharply with age, the latest data show. Although the overall mortality rate for those 1.3 million cases was 5.4%, it was 1% or lower for Americans under 50. However, it was 2.4% for those in their 50s, 6.7% for those in their 60s, 16.6% for those in their 70s and 28.7% for those 80 and up.


https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-06-26/cdc-updates-list-of-whos-most-at-risk-for-severe-cases-of-covid-19

"The risk of dying from COVID-19 increases sharply with age".

Has anyone seen an explanation of what in the ageing process causes this, please?

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3 minutes ago, Bazle said:

"The risk of dying from COVID-19 increases sharply with age".

Has anyone seen an explanation of what in the ageing process causes this, please?

More likely to have underlying health conditions ( diabetes etc ) and weaker immune systems 

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