Sangsom Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 14 hours ago, farangme said: You got it mate and you're right. Why would anybody leave the USA, unless to appreciate how lucky they are. Meh, I lived and worked in the US for a year when I was younger, could have stayed if I wanted my employer wanted me to stay and would have sorted out a permanent visa, I politely declined. As much as I enjoy going to the US for holidays I much prefer the UK as a place to live. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rompho Ray Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Sangsom said: Meh, I lived and worked in the US for a year when I was younger, could have stayed if I wanted my employer wanted me to stay and would have sorted out a permanent visa, I politely declined. As much as I enjoy going to the US for holidays I much prefer the UK as a place to live. Nothing at all wrong with this mate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rompho Ray Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 4 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Besides, not all airlines will collapse, the well run airlines have already said they have enough capital to get through this, the poor airlines had the begging bowl out less than a month in. There's also bankruptcy, which has saved many airlines in the past. And, where low cost airlines fail, others will rise to take their place, as long as governments keep their snouts out of the free market. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rompho Ray Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) .. Edited April 11, 2020 by Rompho Ray Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 3 hours ago, KWA said: Agree in principle with both of you, but these are unprecedented circumstances. If we all hold the airlines to account and demand cash then inevitably some will go bust, thus removing competition from the pool and allowing those remaining to dictate prices. Do we really want to do that and return to the days before easyJet, Ryanair, the Middle East airlines etc were around? Prices will go up and we'll be paying through the nose for years to come. No one will be unable to eat or pay their bills if they lose out on the price of a flight ticket or two, and probably won't even lose out at all looking at the rebooking or voucher terms in many cases, so why pursue an action that could cost you for years to come? I have no problems with airlines going bust. If they were strong they would survive. The shareholders and billionaire owners can cough up the money. 2 hours ago, Sangsom said: There probably has to be a middle ground somewhere and a deal to be struck, something like they can receive finds on the understanding they pay it back and payments need to be say 50% of profits or something like that. Simply letting them go to the wall will have too much a big impact on the wider economy which is going to be fked after all this anyway. I would make the billionaire owners and shareholders cough up the money. Then make sure they exhaust every avenue possible to attract investment and credits. Then, and only then, would I even entertain the idea of handing them a single penny from the taxpayer. We bailed out the banks in 08 and paid for that with stagnant wages and tax cuts. No thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Rompho Ray said: There's also bankruptcy, which has saved many airlines in the past. And, where low cost airlines fail, others will rise to take their place, as long as governments keep their snouts out of the free market. Look at the above graphic. Some airlines have 6-10 months of funds to see them through this. They are obviously well run and financially viable businesses. Why should the little guy have to fork out money to bail out failing airlines. Thai airways was bailed out by the Thai taxpayer, even though the airline was on the verge of bankruptcy before this happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
galenkia Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 2 minutes ago, dcfc2007 said: Look at the above graphic. Some airlines have 6-10 months of funds to see them through this. They are obviously well run and financially viable businesses. Why should the little guy have to fork out money to bail out failing airlines. Thai airways was bailed out by the Thai taxpayer, even though the airline was on the verge of bankruptcy before this happened. Should let them collapse, same as they should of the banks in 2008 over here. Make them pay for their failure to run a business properly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) 4 minutes ago, galenkia said: Should let them collapse, same as they should of the banks in 2008 over here. Make them pay for their failure to run a business properly. Yep. Bailing out failed businesses is corporate socialism. Ultimately it results in the ordinary working person getting f***d. Edited April 11, 2020 by dcfc2007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rompho Ray Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said: Why should the little guy have to fork out money to bail out failing airlines. Well, I don't think that was what I suggested. Bankruptcy is protection from your creditors, not a bailout. I'm against government bailouts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Rompho Ray said: Well, I don't think that was what I suggested. Bankruptcy is protection from your creditors, not a bailout. I'm against government bailouts. No, I wasn't suggesting that mate. The opposite actually. Just making a general point. Edited April 11, 2020 by dcfc2007 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KWA Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 3 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: I have no problems with airlines going bust. If they were strong they would survive. The shareholders and billionaire owners can cough up the money. In normal circumstances I would agree with the first sentence, but these are not normal circumstances and I'd be cutting off my nose to spite my face. Agree with the second one if it's possible. 3 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Look at the above graphic. Some airlines have 6-10 months of funds to see them through this. I'd like to see the same chart for the European, Middle Eastern or American airlines. No matter what becomes of this, they must know it's a one off "rescue" and they need to prepare for next year's virus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, KWA said: In normal circumstances I would agree with the first sentence, but these are not normal circumstances and I'd be cutting off my nose to spite my face. Agree with the second one if it's possible. I'd like to see the same chart for the European, Middle Eastern or American airlines. No matter what becomes of this, they must know it's a one off "rescue" and they need to prepare for next year's virus. IAG group said they have six months before they will go bust. Ryanair could go for more than a year before they would go bust. I agree with what the Chancellor has said. The airline shareholders need to cough up first and seek investment from alternative sources before govt support. He knows that people are still reeling from what happened in 2008, when the taxpayer bailed out failed banks, then watched as bank bosses retired with multi million pound salaries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krapow Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 5 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Look at the above graphic. Some airlines have 6-10 months of funds to see them through this. They are obviously well run and financially viable businesses. Why should the little guy have to fork out money to bail out failing airlines. Thai airways was bailed out by the Thai taxpayer, even though the airline was on the verge of bankruptcy before this happened. 1 hour ago, dcfc2007 said: IAG group said they have six months before they will go bust. Ryanair could go for more than a year before they would go bust. I agree with what the Chancellor has said. The airline shareholders need to cough up first and seek investment from alternative sources before govt support. He knows that people are still reeling from what happened in 2008, when the taxpayer bailed out failed banks, then watched as bank bosses retired with multi million pound salaries. China Southern, in the two graphs, is that not two widely different interpretations how long they would/will last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sangsom Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 One of my mates was due to get married in Santorini in May. They have rescheduled for the same time next year, I’ll be highly surprised if I can get away on another holiday before then if I’m honest.......am preparing myself mentally for that, it another option opens up before that then so be it but I’m not holding my breath...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 I doubt CX last that long. They were already in serious shit before this. Long threads on Pprune on this, and the way they treat their staff. Roughly "senior white pilots out, replace them with cheap young Chinese pilots" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Krapow said: China Southern, in the two graphs, is that not two widely different interpretations how long they would/will last? Two different metrics mate. The first graph is regarding 'months before bankruptcy assuming 100% cut in capacity'. The second 'days before bankruptcy assuming all forward booking revenue kept'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Sangsom said: One of my mates was due to get married in Santorini in May. They have rescheduled for the same time next year, I’ll be highly surprised if I can get away on another holiday before then if I’m honest.......am preparing myself mentally for that, it another option opens up before that then so be it but I’m not holding my breath...... You will be able to get away before that. I dare say some autumn sunshine is on the cards if you fancy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boydeste Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Just now, dcfc2007 said: You will be able to get away before that. I dare say some autumn sunshine is on the cards if you fancy it. I think not, but time will tell me thinks! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sangsom Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 Just now, dcfc2007 said: You will be able to get away before that. I dare say some autumn sunshine is on the cards if you fancy it. Not convinced mate.......if that is the case then everyone will have the same idea and prices will be through the roof as people can’t spend money now and they will have a Warchest to spend. Don’t mind sitting it out tbh.....happy to sit it out or maybe do a UK break I’m not desperate. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfc2007 Posted April 11, 2020 Share Posted April 11, 2020 39 minutes ago, boydeste said: I think not, but time will tell me thinks! 37 minutes ago, Sangsom said: Not convinced mate.......if that is the case then everyone will have the same idea and prices will be through the roof as people can’t spend money now and they will have a Warchest to spend. Don’t mind sitting it out tbh.....happy to sit it out or maybe do a UK break I’m not desperate. Denmark, Norway, and a few other countries have said they will start lifting restrictions from next week. Trump wants America up and running again from May the first. The economic carnage is weighing too heavily, many now starting to come to the realisation that a 6-12 month lockdown is impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrmango Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 2 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Two different metrics mate. The first graph is regarding 'months before bankruptcy assuming 100% cut in capacity'. The second 'days before bankruptcy assuming all forward booking revenue kept'. Which IMHO, is a fraud! They took the money in advance as a deposit for future service, and when they cannot deliver the service, they must return the deposit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code_slayer_bkk Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Sangsom said: One of my mates was due to get married in Santorini in May. They have rescheduled for the same time next year, I’ll be highly surprised if I can get away on another holiday before then if I’m honest.......am preparing myself mentally for that, it another option opens up before that then so be it but I’m not holding my breath...... Santorini is a beautiful place .... I was there a couple of times in the early 90's ..... the best of luck to you mate ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code_slayer_bkk Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Two different metrics mate. The first graph is regarding 'months before bankruptcy assuming 100% cut in capacity'. The second 'days before bankruptcy assuming all forward booking revenue kept'. If they have to ... file Chapter 11 ( Bankruptcy ) .. this gives them plenty of time to restructure debt , pay off preferred vendors and get back on their feet .... Then if they cannot meet their obligations under Chapter 11 .. then file Chapter 7 ( death - Bankruptcy ) then this gives other competitors the ability to purchase the Chapter 7 company's for dimes on the dollar .... Capitalism works .... a little consolidation in the airline industry wouldn't hurt ... At least the airlines are not facing high fuel costs ... that is a gift in the horses mouth ... Whatever is done .. keep the governments out of it ... If the governments do get involved make sure they get preferred stock ... that is all ... Edited April 12, 2020 by code_slayer_bkk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 There is a BIG difference between your country lifting (partially ?) the lockdown and other countries accepting foreign travellers again ...... Just watched a docu (ARTE, French ) about the confimement being lifted in Bejing. There are huge restrictions and a very intensive tracking / control of the population Of course one will say "yeah, but this is communist China" hahahaha..... Our "democratic" countries have followed the same rules, are speaking about tracking people through their phones, etc ..... So, don't dream too fast boys ! And there are also plenty theories around about a cycle of lift / reconfine / lift / reconfine...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted April 12, 2020 Share Posted April 12, 2020 (edited) And obviously what I said above is not just another stupid idea from the crazy frog..... Let your government take over and this is what happens... Note that they're not speaking about in weeks or 1 month.... more like many months ! https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/borders-to-stay-closed-travellers-urged-to-see-australia-first-once-curbs-ease-20200410-p54iw4.html Borders to stay closed, travellers urged to 'see Australia first' once curbs ease Edited April 12, 2020 by Thai Spice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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