fygjam Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, KWA said: He does have a point though that "your copy and paste shite" is often a lot of crap which doesn't contribute to the discussion, and has much in common with the stirrer of shit who had the initials CF. If ya don't like it don't read it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fatbhoytim Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 3 hours ago, fygjam said: Coronavirus: Virus ‘found’ in March 2019 Spain sewage Authorities testing sewer water in Spain discovered traces of COVID-19 dating back well before the pandemic broke out in China. Spanish virologists have found traces of coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona sewer water collected in March 2019, nine months before the disease was identified in China. The University of Barcelona said the discovery of the virus genome so early in Spain, if confirmed, would imply COVID-19 may have appeared much earlier than thought. Researchers had been testing waste water since mid-April this year to identify potential new outbreaks, when they decided to also run tests on older samples. They first found the virus was present in Barcelona on January 15, 2020, 41 days before the first case was officially reported there. Then they ran tests on samples taken between January 2018 and December 2019 and found the presence of the virus genome in one of them, collected on March 12, 2019. “The levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive,” research leader Albert Bosch was quoted as saying by the university. The research has been submitted for a peer review. Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions. “When it’s just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem,” he said. There was the potential for a false positive due to the virus’ similarities with other respiratory infections. “But it’s definitely interesting, it’s suggestive,” Villalbi said. Mr Bosch, who is president of the Spanish Society of Virologists, said that an early detection even in January could have improved the response to the pandemic. Instead, patients were probably misdiagnosed with common flu, contributing to community transmission before measures were taken. Professor Gertjan Medema of the KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands, whose team began using a coronavirus test on waste water in February, suggested the Barcelona group needs to repeat the tests to confirm it is really the SARS- CoV-2 virus. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-virus-found-in-march-2019-spain-sewage/news-story/313ed779e76e630aec1626a6c80aa7c4 More copy and paste shite from the spawn of CF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forcebwithu Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 10 minutes ago, fatbhoytim said: More copy and paste shite from the spawn of CF Don't see a problem with his posts. @fygjam's most recent one had good info and was one I might have missed otherwise. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 11 hours ago, KhunDon said: This made me laugh at the shear stupidity of some people. Americans.....😄😄😄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 2 hours ago, fatbhoytim said: More copy and paste shite from the spawn of CF Fyg is not CF much as I usually disagree with both Correlation is not causation Edited June 27, 2020 by Ivan the terrible 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 4 hours ago, fygjam said: Coronavirus: Virus ‘found’ in March 2019 Spain sewage Authorities testing sewer water in Spain discovered traces of COVID-19 dating back well before the pandemic broke out in China. Spanish virologists have found traces of coronavirus in a sample of Barcelona sewer water collected in March 2019, nine months before the disease was identified in China. The University of Barcelona said the discovery of the virus genome so early in Spain, if confirmed, would imply COVID-19 may have appeared much earlier than thought. Researchers had been testing waste water since mid-April this year to identify potential new outbreaks, when they decided to also run tests on older samples. They first found the virus was present in Barcelona on January 15, 2020, 41 days before the first case was officially reported there. Then they ran tests on samples taken between January 2018 and December 2019 and found the presence of the virus genome in one of them, collected on March 12, 2019. “The levels of SARS-CoV-2 were low but were positive,” research leader Albert Bosch was quoted as saying by the university. The research has been submitted for a peer review. Dr Joan Ramon Villalbi of the Spanish Society for Public Health and Sanitary Administration told Reuters it was still early to draw definitive conclusions. “When it’s just one result, you always want more data, more studies, more samples to confirm it and rule out a laboratory error or a methodological problem,” he said. There was the potential for a false positive due to the virus’ similarities with other respiratory infections. “But it’s definitely interesting, it’s suggestive,” Villalbi said. Mr Bosch, who is president of the Spanish Society of Virologists, said that an early detection even in January could have improved the response to the pandemic. Instead, patients were probably misdiagnosed with common flu, contributing to community transmission before measures were taken. Professor Gertjan Medema of the KWR Water Research Institute in the Netherlands, whose team began using a coronavirus test on waste water in February, suggested the Barcelona group needs to repeat the tests to confirm it is really the SARS- CoV-2 virus. https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-virus-found-in-march-2019-spain-sewage/news-story/313ed779e76e630aec1626a6c80aa7c4 you would think it has to be cross reactivity to common RNA found in many Coronaviruses including SarsCov2...the finding does not chime with the real life clinical emergence of Covid 19 in early 2020 ...maybe late 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bazle Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 hour ago, forcebwithu said: Don't see a problem with his posts. @fygjam's most recent one had good info and was one I might have missed otherwise. Totally agree. I find the posts informative. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krapow Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Thai Spice said: Americans.....😄😄😄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄🙄 Sacre bleu, Spicey's back in the land of the living! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhunDon Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 2 minutes ago, Krapow said: Sacre bleu, Spicey's back in the land of the living! I thought he was dead, great to hear he’s a survivor. 🤗 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Ivan the terrible said: you would think it has to be cross reactivity to common RNA found in many Coronaviruses including SarsCov2...the finding does not chime with the real life clinical emergence of Covid 19 in early 2020 ...maybe late 2019 Unlikely, it would be a rookie mistake to submit a research paper for peer review without double checking. You can find the paper here, perhaps you could review it for them https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1 You can find the information on the testing protocol here https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/real-time-rt-pcr-assays-for-the-detection-of-sars-cov-2-institut-pasteur-paris.pdf?sfvrsn=3662fcb6_2 Both are PDFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 20 minutes ago, Krapow said: Sacre bleu, Spicey's back in the land of the living! if being here is living...its the land of the kneecapped undead in Gods waiting room ..add your own adjective 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, fygjam said: Unlikely, it would be a rookie mistake to submit a research paper for peer review without double checking. You can find the paper here, perhaps you could review it for them https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.06.13.20129627v1 You can find the information on the testing protocol here https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/real-time-rt-pcr-assays-for-the-detection-of-sars-cov-2-institut-pasteur-paris.pdf?sfvrsn=3662fcb6_2 Both are PDFs. Peer review is subject to bias ...and is frequently biased ...its far from Gold standard Reproducability is Gold standard Climate Change has reduced peer review to a laughing stock Look at The Lancet...twice f***d up Edited June 27, 2020 by Ivan the terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Krapow Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said: if being here is living...its the land of the kneecapped undead in Gods waiting room ..add your own adjective You love it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 6 minutes ago, Krapow said: You love it! I honestly think there is a little dark place in all of us where we wonder.... That of course is the danger of the mob or the pile on And why we all need the rule of law Edited June 27, 2020 by Ivan the terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fatbhoytim Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 1 hour ago, Ivan the terrible said: Peer review is subject to bias ...and is frequently biased ...its far from Gold standard Reproducability is Gold standard Climate Change has reduced peer review to a laughing stock Look at The Lancet...twice f***d up Well the methodology is described in the paper. Perhaps you can see if it's reproducable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Penevil Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 This is another long article, but it clearly explains the increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Evil (LINK) The U.S. Has Officially Unflattened the Curve With Its Worst Day of the Coronavirus Pandemic Yet BY CHRIS WILSON JUNE 25, 2020 6:25 PM EDT On April 7, less than a month after reported cases of COVID-19 began to rise dramatically in the United States, the rate of new infections reached a peak: an average of 31,630 new cases per day, meaning close to 10 in every 100,000 Americans were testing positive daily. For months, that figure stood as the worst day in the pandemic’s spread at the national level. Until now. The latest data show that, on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week (June 23 and June 24), the U.S. surpassed that high-water mark, at more than 31,700 infections per day. The state of the pandemic in this country is officially worse than it has ever been. What is particularly troubling about this trend is that the country as a whole was on the right track through the end of May (unlike a number of states, such as North Carolina, which never flattened or showed extended signs of progress) even if it wasn’t out of the woods entirely. The fact that those positive signs all flipped in polarity suggest that, whatever combination of factors led to this resurgence, one thing is clear: the nation did not adapt to changing circumstances. Assigning causes and effects to peaks and valleys in a dataset as complex as this one is a dangerous business. But as my colleague Tara Law and I reported last week, greater availability of testing is very unlikely to explain the surge in cases. And one cannot ignore the fact that many states began cautiously reopening public spaces around Memorial Day, about two weeks before the numbers in the U.S. took off. That’s about COVID-19’s typical incubation time. The virus has also struck the country asymmetrically, moving from dense urban centers to less populated regions, which requires a nimble shift in public interventions to combat. Crunching the Numbers One might reasonably ask why we didn’t notice this yesterday, since the peak value came two days ago. The answer involves just a smidgeon of math. We’ll get through it together. Every evening, a team at Johns Hopkins University publishes daily figures on the number of COVID-19 cases (and resultant fatalities) on a worldwide, national, U.S. state and U.S. county level. As you can see from the gray bars in the above chart, these figures, when graphed day-by-day (as opposed to cumulatively), can fluctuate a lot, for apparently arbitrary reasons. Figures tend to be higher on Fridays than earlier in the week, for example, which can easily make the trend hard to read on any given day if you don’t have weeks of data to help put it in context. What most publications (including TIME) have done is report the data in a seven-day rolling average, which smooths the curve in order to essentially imbue the chart with that context. We’re using what’s called a “centered” moving average, where each daily value shows the average of that day as well as the previous three days and the following three days. There’s one significant downside to this approach: the most recent few days don’t have seven data points to sample from, because, like you, we can’t see into the future. For those days, this method uses an average of the previous three days, the current day, and however many days follow (two, one, or none). But that’s a worthy trade-off for the fact that a centered average tracks much more closely with the raw data, showing a more accurate picture overall. That much is made clear from this comparison of the same data as above with an average of the previous week (blue), an average of the following week (green), and the centered average that TIME uses (red): This may seem pedantic, but it gets to the heart of how tricky it can be to accurately report the magnitude of the COVID-19 crisis. Based on only the unaveraged daily values, the two worst days still lie in April, and that may be true for some time. And while as of today the centered average peaks on June 23, when we checked yesterday, with one fewer data point, June 23 was still a shade below the previous peak. Within a few days, we’ll be able to say for certain how much worse off we are now than we were when things previously looked the most bleak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KhunDon Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Latest has the figures of 38,672 new cases in just one day. ☹️ https://www.ft.com/content/76e91d53-b4fa-3482-a9e4-77cfce214c6c Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 12 minutes ago, KhunDon said: Latest has the figures of 38,672 new cases in just one day. ☹️ https://www.ft.com/content/76e91d53-b4fa-3482-a9e4-77cfce214c6c its now 44000...roughly equivalent to Europe in its darkest days...similar population Deaths is what matters not cases 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 29 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said: This is another long article, but it clearly explains the increase in COVID-19 cases in the U.S. Evil <snip> From what I observed at the beach over a sunny Memorial Day weekend this is not surprising. People -- especially young people -- were not social distancing and/or wearing masks. With the steep rise in infections there will likely be a corresponding rise in hospitalizations by mid-July. That's when things will get interesting and it will be like New York City all over again in places like Phoenix, Houston & other Sunbelt cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, lazarus said: From what I observed at the beach over a sunny Memorial Day weekend this is not surprising. People -- especially young people -- were not social distancing and/or wearing masks. With the steep rise in infections there will likely be a corresponding rise in hospitalizations by mid-July. That's when things will get interesting and it will be like New York City all over again in places like Phoenix, Houston & other Sunbelt cities. not memmorial day...BLM...just stop spinning ...its pathetic BLM started the day after Memmorial day Edited June 27, 2020 by Ivan the terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 32 minutes ago, Ivan the terrible said: not memmorial day...BLM Memorial Day -- thousands of people out & about seemingly without a care (or a face mask). The young folks who spread it around brought it back home to mom & dad, gramps & granny --- that's a portion of the infections the US is seeing now. The hospitalizations and deaths are forthcoming in July... BLM protest? Yes, that too. According to an interview I listened to earlier, a top state health officer said it was likely that there was transmission at protests but they really have no way of accurately knowing as tracing is lacking. Again, it was mostly young people protesting who dispersed back to their home towns. I happened across one of those BLM protests at the beach one day. People were wearing masks and spread apart. Many of the protests I saw in photos from smaller cities were like this. The media likes to show the largest and most raucous. They weren't all cheek to jowl. If you look at where a significant portion of the new infections are occurring many are in places that did not have protests... e.g., rural places, jails & prisons, large food processing plants -- many in Latino communities. Interestingly, private sector tracking of consumer spending is shedding some additional light on the latest spread...Higher restaurant spending could be linked to COVID-19 cases, study findshttps://www.sfgate.com/food/article/Higher-restaurant-spending-could-be-linked-to-15369923.php “We find that the level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks,” wrote Jesse Edgerton, economic and policy research analyst at J.P. Morgan. “'Card-present' restaurant spending (meaning in-person rather than online spending) is particularly predictive.” Here's a photo from the beach on 3 June... Edited June 27, 2020 by lazarus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 the yelling and virtiol and shouty hatred at the BLM riots would have aerosolised the virus ...at night too when the dampening effect of UV was absent Unmitigated disaster as all right thinking people said it would be...and it went on for 2 weeks not the 1 day of memmorial day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivan the terrible Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, lazarus said: I think you would've had to seen it -- Memorial Day -- with your own eyes. Thousands of people out & about seemingly without a care (or a face mask). The young folks who spread it around brought it back home to mom & dad, gramps & granny --- that's a portion of the infections the US is seeing now. The hospitalizations and deaths are forthcoming in July... BLM protest? Yes, that too. According to an interview I listened to earlier, a top state health officer said it was likely that there was transmission at protests but they really have no way of accurately knowing as tracing is lacking. Again, it was mostly young people protesting who dispersed back to their home towns. I happened across one of those BLM protests at the beach one day. People were wearing masks and spread apart. Many of the protests I saw in photos from smaller cities were like this. The media likes to show the largest and most raucous. They weren't all cheek to jowl. If you look at where a significant portion of the new infections are occurring many are in places that did not have protests... e.g., rural places, jails & prisons, large food processing plants -- many in Latino communities. Interestingly, private sector tracking of consumer spending is shedding some additional light on the latest spread...Higher restaurant spending could be linked to COVID-19 cases, study findshttps://www.sfgate.com/food/article/Higher-restaurant-spending-could-be-linked-to-15369923.php “We find that the level of spending in restaurants three weeks ago was the strongest predictor of the rise in new virus cases over the subsequent three weeks,” wrote Jesse Edgerton, economic and policy research analyst at J.P. Morgan. “'Card-present' restaurant spending (meaning in-person rather than online spending) is particularly predictive.” Here's a photo from the beach on 3 June... correlation /causation re restaurants,,,its a distraction Edited June 27, 2020 by Ivan the terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted June 27, 2020 Share Posted June 27, 2020 Just now, Ivan the terrible said: the yelling and virtiol and shouty hatred at the BLM riots would have aerosolised the virus ...at night too when the dampening effect of UV was absent Unmitigated disaster as all right thinking people said it would be...and it went on for 2 weeks not the 1 day of memmorial day Memorial Day is a long 3/4 day weekend that is traditionally celebrated by American families as the beginning of summer. Several hundred million people coming together in close groups. Yes, the protests were ripe for infections. How many people -- individuals -- participated, though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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