Aqualung Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 2 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: Its modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June. The latest figure for Sweden is 2,680 deaths, with daily deaths peaking a fortnight ago. So Imperial College’s modelling – the same modelling used to inform the UK response – was wrong, by an order of magnitude. https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/sweden-tames-its-r-number-without-lockdown More evidence to suggest that the Imperial College London Coronavirus model wildly overestimated the amount of deaths and infections. And most of those deaths have been in care homes. 400 care homes just around the Stockholm vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 GLOBAL DEATHS IN FRANCE – UPDATE 20/04/2020 So, a quick update on last week figures : Again, remember my point of view : - Only global death rate variation vs previous years is a reliable indicator - It is also the only one that gives a proper comparison base between countries (brought in %). You can’t use the Corona death numbers as each country has a different way of counting them. - This info is from INSEE (equivalent of the UK O.N.S.) and is reliable, although one has to keep in mind a 1 to 2 week delay in date transmission / exploitation. Note that you have similar info from the ONS here : https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales but it is mainly an Excel spreadsheet. (from which it would be easy to establish similar charts) - Those number are just a start for further analyse work to have a fair idea of the impact of Corona in the global numbers. 1) Updated list of daily cumulated deaths (all France). One can clearly see the increase compared to previous years started mid-March, peaked 1st week of April and has since then retraced to “normal” levels. The following chart shows cumulated deaths for the period 01/03 till 20/04/20 compared to 2018 and 2019. So yes, there is clearly an increase, and yes, is it very likely the majority can be attributed to COVID 19 => It will be very interesting to follow those numbers in the following months and continue the weekly / monthly compairison with previous years. Indeed as it is clear a vast majority of deaths are 75+ we can mathematically conclude that a certain number of those people would have anyway died of "normal old age" in the future, but as they have died "prematurely" the 2020 curb in coming months could be lower than previous years. In other words, their death has simply been brought forward in time. 2) Evolution (variation) per age sector, and sex of cumulated deaths for the period 01/03 to 20/04 - 2020 vs 2019 You can clearly see the age risk with a big evolution is 65+, and men are more at risk than women. Again the man / woman thing should be compared with the demographics in this age range. Note from the INSEE concerning the age range (translated by Google) “Before age 65, mortality is very close in 2019 and 2020 (7% more deaths in the period in 2020 compared to 2019) with however different trends by age group and gender: mortality decreases by 18% among those under 25 years of age, particularly among young men (-24%), probably due to containment measures that can affect other causes of death, including accidental death; and 49 and increases by 12% between the age of 50 and 64 (slightly more for women than for men). Second, the increase in the number of deaths is all the greater as age increases: it is 22% between 65 and 74 years, 31% between 75 and 84 years and 33% beyond. For each of these age groups, the increase is much greater for men than for women. Over the age of 65, the increase in mortality is 33% for men compared to 28% for women.” 3) Location of death : This are the variations for the period 01/04/20 to 20/04/20 compared to the same period in 2019 One can clearly see that the main increase happened in care homes. This confirms several other reports and figures from different European countries clearly indicating that the majority of deaths happened in care homes. End note : I have always been a great fan of data analysis, charts, spreadsheets and have been a great user during my working years (stock management, cost management, equipment running cost management) But I am retired, and I am not going to spend hours every day to do research work now. Although this would be a very interesting one ! Source : INSEE , note that at the bottom of the page they have some great, very complete spreadsheets for download. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fforest Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) ..... Edited February 11, 2021 by fforest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fforest Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) .... Edited February 11, 2021 by fforest 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
galenkia Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 3 hours ago, code_slayer_bkk said: A Thai gal came over last night .. we were talking and of course the Wuhan virus came up ... It was her belief that the Wuhan Virus was started in the USA .... that the Americans have caused this .... Considering they are scared of ghosts I would take her opinion with a pinch of salt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 3 hours ago, lazarus said: That's what the Chinese said... https://www.the-scientist.com/news-opinion/chinese-officials-blame-us-army-for-coronavirus-67267 I'd blame the French, they had it before the Chinese. France's patient zero caught coronavirus in DECEMBER: Doctor says samples from patients with flu-like symptoms tested positive Dr Yves Cohen said testing confirmed coronavirus was in France from December One re-test from 24 patient samples came back positive from December 27 The intensive care chief, from Paris, wants negative samples to be reviewed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 44 minutes ago, fygjam said: I'd blame the French, they had it before the Chinese. France's patient zero caught coronavirus in DECEMBER: Doctor says samples from patients with flu-like symptoms tested positive Dr Yves Cohen said testing confirmed coronavirus was in France from December One re-test from 24 patient samples came back positive from December 27 The intensive care chief, from Paris, wants negative samples to be reviewed It is well documented that even in Italy there was a surge in "strange" pneumonia and flu cases, very deadly, since November. China as well. Google is your friend, but sort a bit between all the rubbish ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 4 hours ago, fforest said: Yeah it's all a hoax until someone coughs in your face... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 52 minutes ago, lazarus said: Yeah it's all a hoax until someone coughs in your face... CNN breaking news, now THATS what I call a scientific and well balanced reality TV show.....😂😂😂😁😁 And presented by highly intellectual people.... Come on, get something more credible plse ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fygjam Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 4 minutes ago, Thai Spice said: CNN breaking news, now THATS what I call a scientific and well balanced reality TV show.....😂😂😂😁😁 And presented by highly intellectual people.... Come on, get something more credible plse ! Why don't you just find the science which disproves it. If you can't then it stands irrespective of the source. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boydeste Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 10 hours ago, Kathmandu said: Correct, Germany is opening up to fast. 9 hours ago, dcfc2007 said: No it's not. Ditto on that! I can only go on personal experience, I was due to be in Germany fishing on Friday this week and the province I was visiting has recently clamped down on restrictions and banned all out side visitors. Fortunately the company has flipped my booking to next year and the ferry company are refunding our money. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lazarus Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 35 minutes ago, Thai Spice said: CNN breaking news, now THATS what I call a scientific and well balanced reality TV show.....😂😂😂😁 And presented by highly intellectual people.... Come on, get something more credible plse ! Old saying... "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." My way... "You can lead an old goat to information, but you can't make him think." 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 1 minute ago, lazarus said: Old saying... "You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him drink." My way... "You can lead an old goat to information, but you can't make him think." Mate, CNN and THINKING ..? 😂😂😂😂😂🙈🙈🙈🙈🙈 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murchie Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 18 hours ago, roomark said: Costa chaos as motorists queue for HOURS at drive-throughs https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8284275/Costa-chaos-motorists-queue-HOURS-drive-throughs.html?ito=native_share_article-top Sad bastards Why are the Police even allowing that... I'd taser the lot of them .. 🙄 Queuing for hours just to get a coffee, the mind boggles. Oh but it's Costa coffee. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murchie Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 10 hours ago, code_slayer_bkk said: A Thai gal came over last night .. we were talking and of course the Wuhan virus came up ... It was her belief that the Wuhan Virus was started in the USA .... that the Americans have caused this .... And if she read it on Facebook then you can be sure it's true. 😎😎😎😎 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
code_slayer_bkk Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 14 minutes ago, Murchie said: And if she read it on Facebook then you can be sure it's true. 😎😎😎😎 Yea Bro ... looks like the Chinese propaganda machine is working at least a little bit .... convinced her ! lol ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coxyhog Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 17 minutes ago, code_slayer_bkk said: Yea Bro ... looks like the Chinese propaganda machine is working at least a little bit .... convinced her ! lol ... We had my mate & his Chinese wife staying with us for a while recently & she is also convinced it was the US. Apparently there was some sort of armed forces sports tournament over there around the time of the outbreak/leak from the institute/whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 46 minutes ago, Murchie said: Queuing for hours just to get a coffee, the mind boggles. Was thinking same... They dont have coffee machines at home and at work ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Penevil Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) My bold highlights. The question becomes: how many bars can make a profit if their best possible nights are limited to half capacity? Evil Coronavirus: Bars, gyms, beauty parlours and other venues to reopen as Hong Kong eases Covid-19 shutdown Nightclubs and karaoke lounges will remain shut, under the new measures endorsed by the Executive Council Pupils from Form Three to Form Five to return to campuses following the completion of university entrance exam Lilian Cheng, Chris Lau, Ng Kang-chung and Kanis Leung Published: 1:24pm, 5 May, 2020 Most Hong Kong venues shut because of the Covid-19 pandemic will be allowed to reopen from Friday, the city’s leader has announced, as her government also laid plans to get school pupils back to classes. Sites allowed to open their doors when the closure order expires include fitness centres, gaming arcades, mahjong parlours and cinemas, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor said, although they would still have to take precautions such as checking temperatures. Bars will also be able to get back to business, as long as they operate at half capacity, host no live music and close dance floors, while seating no more than four people at each table. Nightclubs, saunas, party rooms and karaoke lounges will remain shut under the new measures, which were endorsed on Tuesday by the Executive Council. (READ MORE) Edited May 5, 2020 by Evil Penevil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forcebwithu Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 26 minutes ago, coxyhog said: We had my mate & his Chinese wife staying with us for a while recently & she is also convinced it was the US. Apparently there was some sort of armed forces sports tournament over there around the time of the outbreak/leak from the institute/whatever. It was the Military World Games and as a result of participating in those games, one unfortunate woman has been the target of the conspiracy nutcases out there. She's been falsely accused of starting the pandemic. Her life has been turned upside down ... It wasn't until March, months after the first reported coronavirus cases in China, that conspiracy theorists turned their focus to Maatje Benassi. The baseless theory began with her participation in October in the Military World Games, essentially the military Olympics, which was hosted by Wuhan, the Chinese city where the coronavirus outbreak began last year. Maatje Benassi competed in the cycling competition there, suffering an accident on the final lap that left her with a fractured rib and a concussion. Despite the crash, Benassi still finished the race, but it turned out to be the start of something worse. While hundreds of athletes from the US military took part in the games, Maatje Benassi was plucked out of the group and given a starring role in the conspiracy theory. ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tommy dee Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 5 hours ago, Thai Spice said: It is well documented that even in Italy there was a surge in "strange" pneumonia and flu cases, very deadly, since November. China as well. Google is your friend, but sort a bit between all the rubbish ! and in Thailand too. i can vouch for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Evil Penevil Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, Thai Spice said: Come on, get something more credible plse ! What media sources do you deem credible? Which TV network, Web site and/or newspaper is credible? Evil Edited May 5, 2020 by Evil Penevil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) 10 minutes ago, Evil Penevil said: What media sources do you deem credible? Which TV network, Web site and/or newspaper is credible? Evil Well, sure not CNN or FOX. Or any press conference from the white house. Remember media nowadays is not about information or investigative journalism anymore. It are all commercial ventures with only 1 objective : Sales and audience ratings in order to sale advertising. Because thats what its about : attracting by any means viewers or readers in order to achieve good sales and audience numbers. And sensationalisme works better than neutral, objective reporting. Not even speaking about the printed press, who mostly buy their articles from AFP, Reuters etc... A good subject for a new thread. Edited May 5, 2020 by Thai Spice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fforest Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 (edited) On 5/5/2020 at 6:11 PM, Evil Penevil said: What media sources do you deem credible? Which TV network, Web site and/or newspaper is credible? Evil .... Edited February 11, 2021 by fforest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thai Spice Posted May 5, 2020 Share Posted May 5, 2020 An Asia Times article on Covid 19 situation in Bali. Nothing alarming (that I knew already), and interesting point about a "bad flu" that swept through the island in Dec / Jan. https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/balis-covid-19-defenses-start-to-wash-away/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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